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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Subtle changes t84 to SW U.K re pressure and slightly colder on 18z pouring in from east.....what it means...let’s see

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

While we're waiting for the 18z to get going, here's the last 8 CFS charts for December, sea level pressure anomaly - it's meaningless to look at one run in isolation at such a timeframe, but taken together a picture emerges...

image.thumb.jpg.472a3017666b367c1b1a9f78ff22b74c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7a866db8798f0679622174f5f35530d1.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.df0fa22ef72268aeec86d888cef4a8c8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d811766443c520e92c30f2a695773787.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fc31b6475406c36be358dfdb09153f9b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7a866db8798f0679622174f5f35530d1.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5600ad9eaabf8c3f2c0b0ab2beb32db7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.46821e9c533bcc027b97a32ae59ba871.jpg

High latitude blocking, anyone? Strong -AO signal.

image.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Latest T120 fax chart just in, UKMO sticks to its guns, nice cold pool of air over the UK there.:oldgood:

fax120s.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well peeps, after having spent most of last night dreaming about bloody snow, I'm going to have an early night...I think I might have a touch of Goofus Syndrome!

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Looking ok on the 18z at T+96 hrs

Notice the Atlantic high merging with the scandi high possibly to create a larger scandi high later into the 18z.

I may not be right just my observation. 

18112018_1618.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Weegaz said:

A shift north by 100 miles would keep those in the south happy ❄️

87FF2A36-025D-4DF1-BE23-830BCA5BCFC6.png

I think that is what UKMO is going for, still a long way off though so anything could happen by the middle of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Weaker heights to the North on the 18z but that might actually be helpful in getting the Scandi trough to dig South, we’ll see

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Here we go, very similar to what GEM was showing on the 12z.:yahoo::cold:

gfs-1-132.png

gfs-1-138.png

gfs-2-132.png

gfs-2-138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Our favourite model - the NAVGEM - focuses most of the ridging to our North-West towards Iceland and Southern Greenland next weekend. Seemingly thanks the to North-Eastern Scandinavian Low Pressure dropping some of its lower heights Southwards splitting the Northern UK High into two. Main area of the split ridging pushed Westwards to form that Northern Iceland block! 

While this 12Z run does have Low Pressure held over South-Western UK, is fairly different from the 12Z ECMWF

Can be easy to dismiss this run since it’s from the NAVGEM, but thought was worth posting anyway. Plus, some models have been playing about with blocking to our North-West. And something that still can’t be ruled out fully, in spite of some of the synoptics the likes of the ECMWF have rolled out. 

C827D436-8FE5-4D7F-A992-D01FBED330E1.thumb.png.da9b213c52e42ec2b4f2d49622ab2c18.pngBF5951D3-FCA7-4083-8D6D-393D367D83C2.thumb.png.c82fe482dd75982448ebeffcbf47b2a9.pngEDC32484-C914-482C-8369-6C6E7AB9B3F0.thumb.png.9facca6d52f769fdde8760837515d0a3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Honestly there's so much variation in the models I can't take any of them seriously.. Cold blocked, very cold blocked, mediocre blocked, saggy highs, monster ridges, pv relocating to scandy, wintry nirvana, wet and cold. No raging Atlantic though so it's all worth it ❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

One thing I am noticing which is not a good thing is any attempting ridging into Greenland is getting gradually less of a feature, this could be a reason why the blocking is waning, 18Z has continued that trend somewhat. 

The PV over Canada is certainly going to try and be a spoiler for any decent sustained height rises into Greenland. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I thought this GFS was going to be poor for cold but the trough might be about to drop now, anyway this chart actually fits in with a number of EPS mean charts from recent days.

gfsnh-0-204_dla5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Think I'd take the pub run at T192, high ideally placed:

image.thumb.jpg.cb42eaaac1838ad8a757f302800a92c0.jpg

Potential to upgrade, we will see, strength of Southern arm of jet:

image.thumb.jpg.03cc338d17bbe5e218ec1c8680a41f22.jpg

And the cold, in the wings but in our direction:

image.thumb.jpg.f8cfb23a40092b6ae7664f4c72ede2df.jpg

Look forward to the second half of this run...

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

One thing I am noticing which is not a good thing is any attempting ridging into Greenland is getting gradually less of a feature, this could be a reason why the blocking is waning, 18Z has continued that trend somewhat. 

The PV over Canada is certainly going to try and be a spoiler for any decent sustained height rises into Greenland. 

The 18z looks to be having a good go at raising heights over Greenland around 204 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

One thing I am noticing which is not a good thing is any attempting ridging into Greenland is getting gradually less of a feature, this could be a reason why the blocking is waning, 18Z has continued that trend somewhat. 

The PV over Canada is certainly going to try and be a spoiler for any decent sustained height rises into Greenland. 

Unfortunately one of the Caveats of November blocking is usually a pretty pent up Vortex especially in the Canadian sector. Scandi/Icelandic highs are more likely to hold than Greenland highs it seems. Obviously there are exceptions. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Clusters D9 - still really not a bad place to be in - due to the flattening of the globe on the charts that height anomaly on cluster 3 is not really W to E, but W to ESE (slightly sceuro but not excessively) - but at D9, if I was going for a cold spell, what with heights generally N and NW, I'd take these anytime :

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111612_216.

though by D10 that trough to the SW is a little more dominant than one would prefer on cluster 1 and 3

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111612_240.

don't want it to be static there, eventually it would bring southerlies

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I honestly can’t believe the negativity in here it’s ridiculous, these charts for the end of November are pretty damn good tbh, there’s been plenty of WINTERS where we would give anything for these kind of charts. The models chop and change like the wind! Who’s to say that tomorrow they won’t all be stonking again. They don’t call it a roller coaster for nothing.

one thing is for sure it’s going to be pretty cold next week and after all this mild crap we will certainly no about it

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters D9 - still really not a bad place to be in - due to the flattening of the globe on the charts that height anomaly on cluster 3 is not really W to E, but W to ESE (slightly sceuro but not excessively) - but at D9, if I was going for a cold spell, what with heights generally N and NW, I'd take these anytime :

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111612_216.

 Very strange set of clusters all the way through ....... time for bed methinks ...... could wake up to just about anything on the nwp!

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