Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[January Snowstorm]

Well for the older members here we know well that the up and down of model watching is part of the norm. It isn't called the rollercoaster without good reason!!

One thing that does surprise me though is that over the last 20 years of model watching I can't honestly see any improvement in weather predictions beyond about 7 days.

Eyes down for the 18z.....

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the murk is already beginning to clear judging by the ext debilt ens. 

Could be a dodgy run ......the upper ridge heads west rather quickly compared to all recent output ........gefs is still strong on the scandi trough and has been so throughout 

[Mike Poole]

Disappear for an hour or two and I had to pinch myself to make sure I hadn't walked into a discussion in 2013!  

All the output today (and indeed every day) sits in the range of uncertainty that exists, I don't feel any more or less bullish about cold prospects given the model output, and certainly not influenced by some of the comments on here. Anyone posted the GEM 12z yet?  

Here T240, decent block, not headed for vortex shredding or anything like that, but decent for advecting the cold towards the UK.

 

[Man With Beard]

Haven't time to browse the whole thread but has anyone posted the parallel yet? Sticking to its guns at D9. Stunning. 

[Midlander]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Haven't time to browse the whole thread but has anyone posted the parallel yet? Sticking to its guns at D9. Stunning. 

Hello and Good Evening Man With Beard, I presonally would prefer that high to be a few hundred miles further north, which will hopefully increase the precip signal inlnad, which hopefully will be significant snow.

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Hello and Good Evening Man With Beard, I presonally would prefer that high to be a few hundred miles further north, which will hopefully increase the precip signal inlnad, which hopefully will be significant snow.

Agreed! You never know, that kind of change is within the margins of error. Though, having said that, I'm aware this pattern is not the only one on offer tonight... I thought it's particularly worth posting this parallel tonight given it isn't backing the less cold ECM op, so we can look back in a few days and see which was closer. 

[SMU]

In the run up to this cold spell The ECM operational has been progressive in every sense of the word - Initially no Easterly, then a fast toppling easterly - every transition from 12z - 12z the following day has been the 144 chart portraying a much better output than the 168 chart the day before -

Its been an ever revolving door of progressive nonsence replaced each day by some conformity to the UKMO / GFS-

With the alleged atlantic attack day 9/10 this is a double edged sword & people need to have a close understanding of the pros & cons-

At atlantic push will often be modelled as transitioning North when infact the real time data will end of showing it moving East - So having the atlantic displaying 'motion' at days 9 could well be a great thing as that motion may well support the advection of cold from the NE ( like the 06z )

Things finely poised - 

My model of the eve - UKMO ... Especially 144 - look how different the WAA is over greenland V EC op-

EC op will be a general mild outlier V the clustering-

 

S

Edited November 16, 2018 by Steve Murr

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Folks , feeling Bitter next week ,around midweek...as regards snow I would not be surprised to see some snow falling in a few places given the flow of cold from the East which given that direction, at this time of year is unusual, and given that little strip of mild water namely the North Sea  , very possible ! But lots of energy for the cold uppers to pick up from the North Sea... Watch this space.....!  After that , potentially stormy and  cold ...Happy days for cold lovers as there really is no mild weather on the way after this week!!!!

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Could be a dodgy run ......the upper ridge heads west rather quickly compared to all recent output ........gefs is still strong on the scandi trough and has been so throughout 

It is rock solid on the majority of runs with the spoiler low anchored to our south west. Only the ecm picked up on this originally and it has stuck to it rigidly. Will be interesting to see if it verifies. This is a classic battle royale between the ecm and the upgraded gfsp. 

[Geordiesnow]

15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well for the older members here we know well that the up and down of model watching is part of the norm. It isn't called the rollercoaster without good reason!!

One thing that does surprise me though is that over the last 20 years of model watching I can't honestly see any improvement in weather predictions beyond about 7 days.

Eyes down for the 18z.....

I don't agree, I think the models have improved alot in picking out trends in the medium term but as per ever, the details of each run will always vary. A pattern change of a blocked outlook has been well predicted and a blocked and chillier outlook is going to occur. The models has also been consistent of never really showing anything particularly wintry either apart from a couple of GFS FI low resolution runs at various times.  

I think the disapointment on here at the moment is because this set up is occuring in November and that the follow up Northerly has never really been picked up, we are all hoping that PV dropping into Western Russia/Scandinavia will head Southwestwards towards us but as I said, apart from a few GFS FI runs, its a signal at this moment in time the models are not really interested in.

The ECM is a chilly run mind, continental winds and under any clear skies we may see some frost in places. Whilst the initial easterly does not look like it will have much oomph behind it, giving the warm SST's and the slight lowering of thicknesses, we could see some convective showers at least especially the further South you are. 

I am glad the models have backed away of the Euro low heading through the UK, the thought of grey and persistant wet weather is not too appealing. 

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It is rock solid on the majority of runs with the spoiler low anchored to our south west. Only the ecm picked up on this originally and it has stuck to it rigidly. Will be interesting to see if it verifies. This is a classic battle royale between the ecm and the upgraded gfsp. 

It’s the bahaviour of the Icelandic upper ridge later week 2 that’s odd .... Steve is right that the ec op has been progressive ..... the mean has now caught it up though ...........

latest icon run has plenty of the variables with notable differences by day 5 

[booferking]

And the roat continues.. Icon

[syed2878]

 where were you in 2012 Apple UK when ECM had led us  up thethe garden path and brought us back down with a bang the next day? now  that was a model upset if ever there was one 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z only runs to T120, but I think it's a marginal downgrade in terms of higher heights SE of the main block. Here T120, then 12z at same time:

GFS and, maybe more importantly FV3, will be interesting tonight.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s the bahaviour of the Icelandic upper ridge later week 2 that’s odd .... Steve is right that the ec op has been progressive ..... the mean has now caught it up though ...........

latest icon run has plenty of the variables with notable differences by day 5 

The ecm has certainly been progressive. I have made several posts over the last few days comparing like for like charts on subsequent days showing the ecm over egged the sagging of the scandi high on its south east flank. It's handling of the biscay low has been much more consistent unfortunately. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I'm sorry but that is possibly one of the silliest posts I've ever seen on this forum. You need to take a look at the archive charts a few days ahead of the winter of 62/63.

When will folk realise that the weather will do what it likes whenever. And the charts we have seen so far have been nothing but fascinating so far setting the scenes for an optimistic festive period ahead. Just enjoy the next week and see how things unfold before jumping to conclusions.

[MattStoke]

Good news is that the GFS 18z is steady as a rock at 0 hours

[CanadaAl]

12 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 where were you in 2012 Apple UK when ECM had led us  up thethe garden path and brought us back down with a bang the next day? now  that was a model upset if ever there was one 

You're giving me flashbacks! All because of a tiny shortwave. Early December. 5th if i recall

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, CanadaAl said:

You're giving me flashbacks! All because of a tiny shortwave. Early December. 5th if i recall

12Z yes, cannot find it on archives,

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z yes, cannot find it on archives,

Archive here - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=1&mois=12&heure=12&jour=5&annee=2012

Edited November 16, 2018 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z yes, cannot find it on archives,

Wouldn’t bother .... look at charts from late feb this year ...... they verified! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Archive here - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=1&mois=12&heure=12&jour=5&annee=2012

Thats it SS , was looking on meteociel, probably couldn't find it as my French is not good

[CanadaAl]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Archive here - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=1&mois=12&heure=12&jour=5&annee=2012

forever known as "that ECM run"

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

forever known as "that ECM run"

Ay, and a member named after it @That ECM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

the 12z run in deep FI is different but even on 1st Dec there is plenty of -4c air over U.K. with a SW’ly airflow.  Indeed that changes on 2nd but looking west the ridging in Atlantic is there for a northerly to quickly follow.   And over the US it’s HP all the way....the Atlantic would be in shutdown mode again...jetstream all over the place

It’s  going to be a ride.....and what a ride !

 

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST