Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And God smiled down upon his people and said: behold, don't despair things could be much worse...

And, lo, things did indeed get much worse.

 

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Hey don't bring me into this! I definitely disagree that it'd bring weeks of Atlantic weather  merely commenting on the run at face value, which as we all know because it's stated in here at least 50 times per day - One run doesn't maketh or breaketh a cold spell.

Going forward not a whole lot has changed - Colder next week, perhaps some wintriness in one or two favoured spots, continued uncertainty going forward thereafter.

The models are sending some of us around the bend already I see, bit of preaching and shakespere going on now

[chionomaniac]

If you hadn’t looked at any previous output this autumn (especially FI) and this was the first run you had looked at, then you would say that in the first half of the run the building blocks are in place and it wouldn’t take much for a notable cold spell to develop. That doesn’t change by looking at the second half of the run. It won’t take much to change from retrogressive nothingness to something far better. When the Scandinavian block is in place, then we need to look upstream and get the right split flow from the tip of Greenland to reinforce the block. Small margins that can change in the coming runs. And nice to get rid of the mild drizmable weather of today. 

[Bruegelian]

I suppose really what this all boils down to is whether we get a proper/severe cold spell in the first half of December. I'm 50/50 about it I think. However I am optimistic long term by the fact that GLOSEA and JMA seem to be going for a very blocked winter, particuarly in the latter half. I think Crewe Cold said the other he thinks January is the month. So if December is not great I myself wouldn't be too despondent. 

[weatherguy]

13 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I said that a few days ago. I now agree with you. No zonal weather. Charts todays are pretty awful for long term prospects

Really? Even if this comes to fruition at +240h (it won't), it's nowhere near awful for long term prospects.  The atlantic is still pretty much shut down and the PV is draining east.

In order to see the relative potential of the above...look no further than a chart I've grabbed from the archives.  Blergh.

Edited November 16, 2018 by weatherguy

[tight isobar]

Summing up...

The 12z ecm is a blocky-and mass potential run..

Non-descript synoptics as the elevation of decipher....CONTINUES.

NAO/AO SYNOPTICS ARE FRAUGHT..via momentum...

And we are far away from exactions....but there with prognosis..(reverse mobility)..(in sort!)

Analysis later!!!!

Edited November 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[Yarmy]

38 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Poor ECM for long term cold. Look at that trough at T120- too far west and north. Other models look to be coming towards this aswell

Trough? I know Netweather can be notoriously sketchy on terminology, but even so...

Anyway, the GEFS mean for the start of meteorological winter is great (as it has been consistently):

 

[snowray]

17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I would say game over if it was the 16th of February but it's the 16th of November, so even if the ECM is correct, winter proper hasn't actually started yet

Thats my birthday 16th Feb Lass, have you been looking into your crystal ball or something? 

I'm not worried about the ECM, if anything it looks a bit odd to me. Anyway we have not even started the fun and games yet and there are going to be many variants of the block to come, I'm sure of that.

No mention of the GEM this evening, looking good to me, lots of snow around too on this run and the high does not sink so quickly either.

Edited November 16, 2018 by snowray

[Always a red]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Summing up...

The 12z ecm is a blocky-and mass potential run..

Non-descript synoptics as the elevation of decipher....CONTINUES.

NAO/AO SYNOPTICS ARE FRAUGHT..via momentum...

And we are far away from exactions....but there with prognosis..(reverse mobility)..(in sort!)

Analysis later!!!!

Exactly, going to be interesting to say the least where ECM sits in ensembles later....as I keep reading from the level headed posters….keep the faith guys!

p.s can anyone buy an out of breath Summer Sun a new return button for his `likes` ? all your Christmas etc etc

[GeordieX9v]

I'm still not concerned by the recent GFS & ECM yet.

Sorry to bring up the old favourite. "more runs needed"

Para run looked good and the GFS was an outlier.

[Methuselah]

Sometimes it might be useful to remember the olden days of yore? Back then Day 4 was the treasure-trove at the end of the rainbow... The late night forecast of New Year's Day 1979 was very bullish about milder weather returning within in three days. It didn't!

So who knows how days 11-15 will pan out? And, As others have already pointed-out, when was the last time December began with such a distorted PV and almost limitless potential?

IMO, the tail-end of the GFS is today's equivalent of yesteryear's Day 4; it's flapping around like a flag in the wind. 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Sometimes it might be useful to remember the olden days of yore? Back then Day 4 was the treasure-trove at the end of the rainbow... The late night forecast of New Year's Day 1979 was very bullish about milder weather returning within in three days. It didn't!

So who knows how days 11-15 will pan out? And, As others have already pointed-out, when was the last time December began with such a distorted PV and almost limitless potential?

IMO, the tail-end of the GFS is today's equivalent of yesteryear's Day 4; it's flapping around like a flag in the wind. 

Remembering back to the 1990's and much of the 00's when the best we could hope for during winter was a 24-48hr toppler with HLB almost non-existent too. One thing that's been quite absent from winters is those 24-48hr topplers actually, something has definitely changed with our weather since 2007ish, possibly thanks to the low sea ice we're seeing more incidence of HLB, but, I'm sure this isn't the thread for that!

The EPS means are tricking out now, will be interesting to see what they show though given the 50/50 split this morning I suspect the clusters will be more telling, the means probably wont give much of a picture.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Remembering back to the 1990's and much of the 00's when the best we could hope for during winter was a 24-48hr toppler with HLB almost non-existent too. One thing that's been quite absent from winters is those 24-48hr topplers actually, something has definitely changed with our weather since 2007ish, possibly thanks to the low sea ice we're seeing more incidence of HLB, but, I'm sure this isn't the thread for that!

The EPS means are tricking out now, will be interesting to see what they show though given the 50/50 split this morning I suspect the clusters will be more telling, the means probably wont give much of a picture.

But that was all down to the late P. G. Tips...the father of the large teapot!

[Optimus Prime]

34 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Summing up...

The 12z ecm is a blocky-and mass potential run..

Non-descript synoptics as the elevation of decipher....CONTINUES.

NAO/AO SYNOPTICS ARE FRAUGHT..via momentum...

And we are far away from exactions....but there with prognosis..(reverse mobility)..(in sort!)

Analysis later!!!!

meh never mind wil wait for your analysis later. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[GeordieX9v]

I am still astounded people do not realise/remember the models chop and change frequently in the low res.

The next run could be another belter... We'll find out soon enough but I feel some may look very silly in a few hours.

[northwestsnow]

Not the best EC det it has to be said, however, its one op, GEFS look great, eps looked good this morning and Exeter remain wedded to a cold dry outlook.

That could all change in the morning, of course.

Confidence in an extended dry cold outlook still at 75% from where i am sat.

Now for the darts,have a nice evening all..

 

[booferking]

Going by the mean i would say support has grown for the op...

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by booferking

[The Beast From The East]

Oops sorry I was looking for the hunt for cold thread but can only find this moans and banter thread..

Edited November 16, 2018 by The BEAST From The East
Spelling

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not the best EC det it has to be said, however, its one op, GEFS look great, eps looked good this morning and Exeter remain wedded to a cold dry outlook.

That could all change in the morning, of course.

Confidence in an extended dry cold outlook still at 75% from where i am sat.

Now for the darts,have a nice evening all..

 

Thank you for your excellent commentary NorthWestSnow,  was dreading the news of the EC det but I suppose it has been the day of disappointments in regards to the dilution of cold and snow.

[supernova]

*Pops in for new season Hunt for Cold. Pops out again.* GFS Op a warm outlier post day five (London GEFS posted earlier) but today's predicted synoptics still mighty interesting compared to the dross we're normally trying to shake the upsides from - albeit not as evocative as some of yesterday's eye candy. Good to be back, despite some of the naysayers already posting! Blocky and coldish? I'd say.

Edited November 16, 2018 by supernova

[Nick123]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Sorry, I'm only an amateur.

Ah, I feel bad now! I kinda assumed you were trolling so I apologise if i seemed harsh - I was you a year ago and i still am but I've done a lot of research since and i am a weather geek haha. This is such a lovely forum and i wish you well on here

[Met4Cast]

Yeah.. the ECM mean certainly isn't as exciting as previous runs and I would say far more support for the OP solution compared with the 00z run.

Quite a strong signal for low pressure to move up from the South-West with heights extending into Europe, not getting rid of Northern Blocking completely, but certainly not the freeze many are hoping for.

[Midlander]

Just now, Nick123 said:

Ah, I feel bad now! I kinda assumed you were trolling so I apologise if i seemed harsh - I was you a year ago and i still am but I've done a lot of research since and i am a weather geek haha. This is such a lovely forum and i wish you well on here

No need to apologise Nick, as I've said were all here to learn Although I do have some high expectations when it comes to snow and cold as lets face it, it is a rare sight to our shores, so always like the synoptics to be as perfect as possible.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Thank you for your excellent commentary NorthWestSnow,  was dreading the news of the EC det but I suppose it has been the day of disappointments in regards to the dilution of cold and snow.

I have what I hope will be a useful tip for you, Apple: simply that you take most of the 'expert' predictions of cold, snow and blizzards (at anything past, say, Day 10) with a huge pile of salt? And that, most definitely, includes those made by yours truly!

Edited November 16, 2018 by Ed Stone

[matt111]

Come on winter hasn’t even started yet let alone being over. No one really knows what will happen beyond next week yet so how anyone can say what will happen for the next few weeks based on one run is beyond me. It’ll make this thread difficult reading for those of us who spend way too much time on here like myself. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by matt111

[Nick123]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

No need to apologise Nick, as I've said were all here to learn Although I do have some high expectations when it comes to snow and cold as lets face it, it is a rare sight to our shores, so always like the synoptics to be as perfect as possible.

Personally I think these are the building blocks slowly coming into place, for the ultimate UK freeze we want the 'perfect synoptics late dec/jan ideally. The fact that they're showing now can only be encouraging