Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

IF the Atlantic does try to make inroads in FI always the possibility for the fronts coming in to meet the cold air leading to some snow like what P6 shows and also P11 (more marginal)

    

another IF is the first attempt at getting the high to Greenland, P4 weakens the first but goes for a 2nd attempt later in the run 

P10 destroys the PV     

P14 also has a second go at a Greenland high 

Ensemble graphs still look fine for here

 

Kulusuk (east Greenland) still signs for pressure to rise then a bit more scatter later as to be expected 

Puppebu (arctic) again still on track for a slight rise in pressure think the signals later on for lower pressure could see those lows diving south / SE possibly into scandi or towards us   

Reykjavik also pressure rising and again those that lean towards lower pressure later on might not be too bad if the high has moved to Greenland by then 

Think the area to focus on first before going too far ahead is the movement of the high from Scandi > Iceland >Greenland.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Mike Poole]

Those who keep the faith with the FV3 rewarded with this locked in cold-fest by T384:

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Those who keep the faith with the FV3 rewarded with this locked in cold-fest by T384:

384 HRS again, not getting any closer:(

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Yes I am because there is no guarntee such favourable pressure setups will be present in the future. With all the blocking around and weak jet it would be a travesty if the UK didn't puill in cold temperatures and significant and disruptive snowfall. We can't rely on 'next time', we must see FL eventually progress into reality.

This is true of course, unfortunately in recent years we have seen fantastic set ups in Mid/late Autumn, and then again in the tail end of Winter around late Feb/early March. What has been absent is anything remotely wintry in what should be the coldest winter month, January. When was the last big January freeze I wonder, I can't actually remember one in a very long time.

 

Anyway all eyes on the ECM thats starting to roll out. T72 showing a nice pool of cold... slightly further south, pretty good start.

Edited November 16, 2018 by snowray

[BlueHedgehog074]

It’s kinda nice to see most of the toys kept in the prams in here, despite a few toy throwers around. Recorded upto 238 toys thrown out of prams, which is pretty good compared to the 1,000’s that often get thrown out during scary model runs. Let’s continue to keep towls and toys in the prams. Thanks a lot!  

The GFS may have gone into ECMWF mode in some ways and not look particularly impressive for cold, wintry, conditions in the dreamland. But as some have talked about in the past, you’re likely going to get up and down runs regarding cold and blocked setups like these. The same for warm and hot spells in Summer. It’s pretty much hard to keep getting perfect heavenly snowy runs without some uninspiring runs being thrown in. 

I think it’s just fortunate that even if the likely upcoming cold spell is more of a brief affair, at least it’s still Autumn (or early Winter depending how you look at it), rather than a setup that’s being modelled for March (or April), or something. And besides, any possible break down may indeed be brief. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[northwestsnow]

Fascinating model watching... not sure which has more of my attention ..Brexit or 12z EC!!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

384 HRS again, not getting any closer:(

But realistically that is the timeframe we are looking at before significant cold and snow is possible.  Our comments about the earlier output is about getting us to that position, no means guaranteed but good chance.  Regardless of whether the UK is in warm southerlies, the interest is in getting the high pressure established somewhere near Greenland, and from that cold will follow.  

[SMU]

EC 96

Strong Easterly flow, 526 Thickness ~

-7 uppers says to me sleet & snow showers for me  ( odd pocket of -8c )

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

EC 96

Strong Easterly flow, 526 Thickness ~

-7 uppers says to me sleet & snow showers for me  ( odd pocket of -8c )

 

Dews might be more revealing Steve..

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96, good position of the high, strong too, and the low south of UK should stop high heights oozing into France.  

 

Edit: T120, want to see where this goes now...not sure...

Edited November 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Getting fed up with the ECM now - lame SE flows - Every single meto has been Easterly/ GFS easterly. 

ECM - pish

Edited November 16, 2018 by Steve Murr

[coldwinter]

Not a great 120 with no low heights eastern Europe to prop the high up, not ideal

[booferking]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96, good position of the high, strong too, and the low south of UK should stop high heights oozing into France.  Good start.

 

That low is to far west i am afraid dont like this run at all... Short term gain for a sniff of snow in the South East long term pain...

[Met4Cast]

She's going down.. she's yelling Timberrrrrr

ECM is not backing down either, this solution was 50/50 in the EPS remember so we can't just discount it

[WalsallWeather123]

Poor ECM for long term cold. Look at that trough at T120- too far west and north. Other models look to be coming towards this aswell

[Midlander]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

Poor ECM for long term cold. Look at that trough at T120- too far west and north. Other models look to be coming towards this aswell

My fears are being realised, a great shame!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Getting fed up with the ECM now - lame SE flows - Every single meto has been Easterly/ GFS easterly. 

ECM - pish

We can't just diss the ecm because it is not showing what we want to see though. It has to be said that the ecm ops are like a dog with a bone with the south west spoiler low. 

[WalsallWeather123]

Will be interesting to see the EC mean but the OP is sticking to its guns big time

[Met4Cast]

#Sinkgate drama continues.

Remarkable consistency from the ECM, shame it's showing the pattern none of us really want to see. Could it be that the ensembles are just being slow to catch onto this new signal? 

[Skullzrulerz]

Most of the models showing ok to poor for uk cold for the meantime infact the odd one or go to mild southish winds

To think we were seeing 2010 Winter style to this it's a heck of a roller coaster

It will get cooler(colder?) from next week but its starting to look like normal temps or maybe even mild for the time of year

However we should not give up hope just yet

1 GFS(P) still brings cold to a point

2 We have 18z runs and the next few days if this is the new trend instead of the colder spell after the eastrly so anything can happen

[northwestsnow]

Good grief talk about over reactions..!!

You would be forgiven for thinking we had a ripper of a Greenland PV and raging +NAO.

 

[Met4Cast]

168hrs isn't terrible, heights possibly re-building towards Scandinavia again

Anybody else getting model fatigue already?

[tinybill]

since  this  morning  its all gone pete tong  its got the Atlantic  steaming  in  and all the cold air  has gone!!!

[Day 10]

No real clarity at 120 then, take your pick with the low to the south, left, middle, right

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief talk about over reactions..!!

You would be forgiven for thinking we had a ripper of a Greenland PV and raging +NAO.

 

Indeed NWS.

To me, nothing much has changed - blocked and cold for the foreseeable.