Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Tim Bland]

GFS kind of backs The met office further outlook into December unfortunately. 

[Midlander]

After an extremely dissapointing GFS OP run I look towards the Para run with apprehension. I hope the GFS OP is a mild outlier of epic proportions. Interesting though that the OP has moved closer to the ECMWF and the illusion which was mentioned in the BBC Weather Video update. Really hope the ECMWF keeps the 'dream' alive otherwise it seems like the beginning of the end.

[shaky]

40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes @BLAST FROM THE PAST @shaky

The initial progs from the East 'mean' was about -2 to -4c, this was about 3-4 days ago- then slowly as always happens in Easterlies the heights lower & the 850s are trimmed out-

So the above numbers became -4/-5 then yesterday a few flirtations with -7c.

Today the upper air cold pool has at day 5/ days 6 small pockets of -10c over the near continent with the -8c line making a tiptoe into the SE ( Think ICON gets it into midlands ) -

I think the top out is -9c which is 1c away from Nov 1993.

In terms of PPN - the prospects of snow away from the downs has increased but probably sits 50 / 50 - *but* as that low creeps in the fact its really shallow means evaporational cooling could play a part-

Im 70% confident of seeing snowfall at home next week & 30% confident of a dusting....

S

 

 

You know what would be funny steve is if we get more snowfall out of the coming easterly than the potential north easterly showing up on recent gfss in fi!thats if it even happens!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks overly progressive with how the cold pool easily dissipates over NE Europe over the latter timeframe on the GFS 12z. Doubt very much this evolution.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

After an extremely dissapointing GFS OP run I look towards the Para run with apprehension. I hope the GFS OP is a mild outlier of epic proportions. Interesting though that the OP has moved closer to the ECMWF and the illusion which was mentioned in the BBC Weather Video update. Really hope the ECMWF keeps the 'dream' alive otherwise it seems like the beginning of the end.

Let's hope so, Apple? I won't say anything definite, as I've already made a fool out of myself once, today...

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Let's hope so, Apple? I won't say anything definite, as I've already made a fool out of myself once, today...

Fingers crossed Ed, don't worry though were all here to learn off each other.

[Summer Sun]

GFS control making more of that low to our west unlike previous runs

12z

06z

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

You know what would be funny steve is if we get more snowfall out of the coming easterly than the potential north easterly showing up on recent gfss in fi!thats if it even happens!

Indeed, it would be nice to bank some early snowfall, and then anything else that comes along is a big bonus!

ECM should run with the UKMO and ICON this evening, hopefully. Be nice to see something close to the UKMO T144 chart coming out from ECM and a reload from the NE.

 

Even GFS is showing the chance of some snow around the middle of next week, so with slightly lower uppers it could be game on.

Edited November 16, 2018 by snowray

[Team Jo]

Weren’t  yesterday’s 12z’s also a bit of a downer before the pub run bounced it back?

I’m just saying it’s probably too early to write any cold spell off just yet- I’m sure there will be some tweaks but it’s misleading to suggest that the semi cold spell next week is off the cards or indeed the building blocks for December are off the table.

everyone remain calm!

[northwestsnow]

So, GFS was indeed leading all up the garden path with its nirvana charts- i mentioned that was likely only yesterday.

Now GFS has realized it was wrong its doing what it has a habit of doing, ie, going the other extreme.

I'm not fussed about it, infact,UKMO 144 is more 'agreeable' for me, better profile in the Greenland region than GFS , so while one can NEVER rule out any model, my cent is on GFS being hopelessly wrong..

[Derecho]

12Z swingometer

Plenty of Greenland highs in there but notice the increase in the number of anticyclonic runs. These are from the high sinking over the UK.

Whilst there are still some cold runs in there the OP has plenty of support but still some time to go.

[SMU]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I hold you and Steve Murr personally responsible for this run

Ha all about the mean

 

Also just logged into the AO ENS 

Never seen lower than -6 before !

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

A bit of an update this morning from our forecast team. Outer perimeter snowfall model has snow setting in here on Sunday night with a total accumulation of 11cm and temp down to -12c at top station by Wednesday morning. So that's an encouraging prediction for the resort planner, but greater snow depth needed to start work on the seasons ski pistes , but that's a start. They inform me that a increasing feature showing on their on single model at 144t-168t is the formation of another westward propagating low formation / trough in the Northern European plain/Southern Baltic region. They seem to think this could be the catalyst to advance the Arctic front into the British Isles by months end ( one to watch ). Regarding the shorter term models out 144t, UKMO seems the best solution from what they see and again are surprised at the ECM  speedy evolution to a veer in the flow. Their own longer term charts still show strong ridging towards the Arctic with possible Omega Upper flow (300mb ) block developing a more meridional flow  early December with strongest flow into NE Europe and rather weak Atlantic jet still showing persisting, but that's a long way off. Will get a latest snow projection later today, so will try a see what that has in store for UK , however , still in the out perimeter predictions. Its going to be great model watching in the hunt for cold but pleased with this morning update from over here .

Evening all, all snow cannons in operation on the mountain this evening with current tempo down to -4c in village. The impressive UKMO again showing consistency out to 144t with each run getting colder through all layers surface to 500mb level. Not sure what to make of the latest GFS run, think a correction to a more backing flow again in the next few runs as our experts still think another low formation as indicated in the above post will start showing in the bigger models shortly. Snow portal results today have some spikes for parts of England and Wales by next Thursday ( 200-150m ) Quite a change in one week. Keep you updated over the weekend as our snow portal service comes into action.

C

[MattStoke]

Going to be a long winter if people start writing it off 2 weeks before it begins.

General picture in the model output remains the same - Plentiful blocking and a heavily disrupted PV.

Ignore specifics beyond a week ahead and concentrate on the bigger picture.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Indeed, it would be nice to bank some early snowfall, and then anything else that comes along is a big bonus!

ECM should run with the UKMO and ICON this evening, hopefully. Be nice to see something close to the UKMO T144 chart coming out from ECM and a reload from the NE.

 

Even GFS is showing the chance of some snow around the middle of next week, so with slightly lower uppers it could be game on.

GFS precip charts are useless, will be a lot wetter than that through the UK, some places like here could see a lot of rain

[Methuselah]

Well there's one thing for certain: the weather cannae follow the 06Z and the 12Z, at the same time...Something is wrong - somewhere?

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello another stonking set of ensembles.

Number 6 is a 1979 redux

 

 

[snowray]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS precip charts are useless, will be a lot wetter than that through the UK, some places like here could see a lot of rain

Hi there, sorry if I wasn't very clear, I meant that the PPN showing up is looking quite wintry in nature, I wasn't referring to the amount of PPN on there.

[ALL ABOARD]

 

Para to the rescue.... 

[Midlander]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello another stonking set of ensembles.

Number 6 is a 1979 redux

 

 

The question is though, are the number of ensembles suppoorting such synoptics as the one shown above increasing? Is the mean line lower than the 06Z?

[Summer Sun]

12z op well above the mean between the 26th and 1st

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

12z op well above the mean between the 26th and 1st

Clear outlier.......BINGO!!!

[seabreeze86]

The GFSp looking very good still,  all to play for still

[snowray]

Big run coming up from the ECM tonight me thinks..,,

[Met4Cast]

Not sure why people are writing this cold spell off on the back of a single GFS op run at over 200hrs away?

Para is very good by the way

GEFS 12z mean also very good, doesn't side with the Det run at all