Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[daz_4]

ECM and GFS just don't want to back down it seems. Still no agreement. 

[Met4Cast]

Fantastic 00z GFS, perfect from start to finish!

ECM still a bit dodgy with a sceuro high rather than the ridge making it up to Greenland, the chaos continues!

[Spah1]

ECM 168 Really frustrating that saggy part of the high to the South East.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Spah1

[northwestsnow]

Surely the energy has to head SE into europe after day 8 on EC???

[northwestsnow]

OK so no GFS outcome on EC but it looks cold and dry generally with a SE flow into the UK next weekend.

Not really what Sarah Lucas was forecasting last night- (yes i saw it too)..

Essentially by day and esp the night temps would be dropping like a stone, think late Nov,short days etc..

I'm happy with it, but i'm aware this is complicated and changes could yet happen..

Edited November 16, 2018 by northwestsnow

[daz_4]

ECM once again finds the way to put the high in the most inconvenient position possible, haha.

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

OK so no GFS outcome on EC but it looks cold and dry generally with a SE flow into the UK next weekend.

Not really what Sarah Lucas was forecasting last night- (yes i saw it too)..

I did think it was made with a bit too much certainty but if ecm is right about the brief southerly flow then she could end up looking less stupid than the daily express (not difficult)

actually, that ec op does seem some actual snow mid week as the initial cold pool gets colder and is better aligned ........ still too many variables to make a call - currently the gfs trend is to sink the surface high a little too much compared to yesterday but it’s small trends and nothing worth over analysing 

note the new gefs at T180 and tell me the ec op isn’t worth keeping at the forefront of your mind - it hasn’t got this right - none of them have but the way it’s currently dealing with the set up post the initial cold pool arriving is becoming the gefs mean ........

as others have said, given the warm autumn, we are early on this pattern to bring deep winter cold surface conditions initially but really not too far away and seeing as winter hasn’t even started yet, maybe just enjoy the ride ??

incidentally, further analysis on the ec46 reveals that the following themes

week 2/3: Atlantic tries to push in from sw against block to ne 

week 3/4: weak signals all around but Atlantic low to our wsw - well to our ssw I should add 

week 4/5: sceuro high drifts wsw 

week 5/6: broad scandi / n Atlantic low establishes as ridge retrogresses further 

week 6/7: weak signal for mid Atlantic ridge

should be noted that at no point in the period do uk surface temps go above average ( apart from the n Scotland coast late on)

the signals don’t look very strong beyond week 3 so clusters could be significantly different 

[northwestsnow]

^^

Thanks Blue, the winds from the east looks nailed on, i'm sure some the of the guys in the SE corner (esp with some altitude) will be wondering if we can squeeze a dusting next week- 850s of -7 on EC ... not sure on dp'S though?

Thereafter is entropy, to coin the phrase.

Personally i'm not expecting a GFS 00z scenario , my hope is the block , despite apparently sinking back longer term, can do enough to deflect the Atlantic to our South.

edit i think the far SE corner scrapes a 850 of -8 through wednesday..

Edited November 16, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Decemberof2010]

So the GFS is a dream run and the ECM a bit meh. Scrap what I said a moment ago edited out now 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Decemberof2010

[shaky]

Well apart from the ecm which is really startin to Tut me off the rest of the 00z runs are great!!ecm is brilliant up to 144.hours!still dont think its right after that!!could get some snow from that easterly aswell!!is it me or does that flow of the continent seem to be forecasted to be colder after each day lol!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

So the GFS is a dream run and the ECM a bit meh. Theres an upgrade on the overnight MO forecast for days 6-15. Lowland snow possible north and east!

Ay, deepest FI though, cold from 28th, hope for a repeat of ya username

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

i saw the video forecast on Met Office website, he was downplaying next week as well.. certainly getting colder, but he said 'if you're looking for snow, you're out of luck.. it'll be rain showers'

obvious that, next week looking pants, always has done, it's week after I'm interested in, GFS showing legendary charts last few runs

[SteveB]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

obvious that, next week looking pants, always has done, it's week after I'm interested in, GFS showing legendary charts last few runs

It would be fair to say this week is pants - next week looks more seasonal, which to me is a welcome change from this mild dross.

[northwestsnow]

Much derided EC snow depth charts do show a dusting across parts of the country next week -

OK OK i know some dislike them and i'm sure with good reason, but with dps hovering around zero and 850s around -7/-8 in the SE corner i reckon some maybe more elevated spots might see a dusting..

 

 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean looks good..

[Decemberof2010]

33 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, deepest FI though, cold from 28th, hope for a repeat of ya username

Yes that would be perfect. Let’s hope so

[carinthian]

On ‎14‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 10:25, carinthian said:

Morning all. Just had a chat with a duty forecaster from our service team. Their model differs in the orientation of the high compared to latest UKMO run. At 120t has the high centre over Scandinavia that allows more of a backing of the flow(ENE) At 144t the surface high cell moves between Scandinavia and Iceland . A easterly component to the flow shows signs of becoming a bit more dominant into the British Isles. Longer term ridging into the Arctic still been shown that may allow a more fluid meridional set up. The outer perimeter snow model they use does show some snow( convective type) in parts of Britain (period 144-240 ) NE England favoured at 200m but could lower later in the period.  They do not dismiss the UKMO model out to 144t as they have to much respect for this but is well out of sink this morning with its own model.  Again, they express the surprise shown by ECM at its speed of the Westward Propagating trough being shown. What their own model indicates is a rather gradual change to cold but with an increased easterly element to the UK weather that's likely to becoming more dominant /prolonged.

C

A bit of an update this morning from our forecast team. Outer perimeter snowfall model has snow setting in here on Sunday night with a total accumulation of 11cm and temp down to -12c at top station by Wednesday morning. So that's an encouraging prediction for the resort planner, but greater snow depth needed to start work on the seasons ski pistes , but that's a start. They inform me that a increasing feature showing on their on single model at 144t-168t is the formation of another westward propagating low formation / trough in the Northern European plain/Southern Baltic region. They seem to think this could be the catalyst to advance the Arctic front into the British Isles by months end ( one to watch ). Regarding the shorter term models out 144t, UKMO seems the best solution from what they see and again are surprised at the ECM  speedy evolution to a veer in the flow. Their own longer term charts still show strong ridging towards the Arctic with possible Omega Upper flow (300mb ) block developing a more meridional flow  early December with strongest flow into NE Europe and rather weak Atlantic jet still showing persisting, but that's a long way off. Will get a latest snow projection later today, so will try a see what that has in store for UK , however , still in the out perimeter predictions. Its going to be great model watching in the hunt for cold but pleased with this morning update from over here .

Edited November 16, 2018 by carinthian

[turkishfella]

loving this charts  long way away but who knows

[bluearmy]

Extended eps reveal a likely wider ranging  set of clusters later 

the ec mean looks good but the spreads reveal the varying options (which the icelandic clusters would reveal later in any case) 

@carinthian ‘s update is encouraging 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=2

people whant snow their plenty coming our way after 312  hr    if its right  the uk will come  to a  halt

[Tim Bland]

Slight exaggeration to say the U.K. will ‘grind to a halt’ . Most central areas stay dry on the latest Gfs. Below is the total snow cover by the end. Still great to see this early in the season ! 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Tim Bland

[frosty ground]

15 hours ago, bluearmy said:

A sceuro high is an upper ridge that sits over Scandinavia, ridging down into Europe to its south ...... it doesn’t usually bring upper cold to the uk as the mean flow is se or south 

 

Thanks.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

16 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=2

people whant snow their plenty coming our way after 312  hr    if its right  the uk will come  to a  halt

If the models are showing snow for central S England within t96 and the Met Office have amber warnings, then I will take interest.

[Scandinavian High.]

Very good gfs this morning cold nextweek frosty weather with brisk easterly in south not cold yet for low level snow yet but later on in run door opens up to the freezer winter is coming.

[Sky Full]

These charts from 1st December 2010 preceded some of the most memorable winter weather seen in December in recent years:

   

We all know what followed in 2010.  So when I saw these charts from the GFS showing a possible evolution for 01/12/2018 I couldn't help making comparisons.....

    

i would say they hold at least as much potential, if not even more, for a cold and wintry December this year.  Very exciting prospects indeed!  Now all we need is for these conditions to verify..... What are the chances, eh?