Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Bit better of an ECM run although the trend of lowering heights from the South and forming a shallow low over the UK is gaining strength, of course if we had more colder air to play with in the initial easterly then this would bring more excitment as it would bring something more prolonged but because the uppers are too warm for snowfall, it would end up being quite cloudy, dull and cold. 

The start of next week at least should be brighter, more convective and perhaps just perhaps the risk of some snow falling from any showers but we have moved away in recent runs of any cold filtering down from the North East in the past few runs although the potential is still there for that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not sure where complaints/surprise at a lack of deep cold next week has come from. Deep cold has never been shown on a single run of any computer model for next week. It’s all about building the right pattern this early in the season.

complaint from me is, why perfect setup now, and not in 6-8 weeks, are we unlucky or not? yes amazing FI recently, but no guarantee of cold from 26th?

if there was, then no complaints about perfect setup 6 weeks too soon

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That bomb in the Atlantic. Really? In just 24 hours? 

ECH1-192.gif

ECH1-216.gif

Isn't that why it's called a 'bomb', Blizzard?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

complaint from me is, why perfect setup now, and not in 6-8 weeks, are we unlucky or not? yes amazing FI recently, but no guarantee of cold from 26th?

if there was, then no complaints about perfect setup 6 weeks too soon

I believe the meteorological term is ‘sod’s law’.

Seriously though, we’re starting this winter from a promising and interesting position. Look at all that blocking and how disrupted the PV is! Some talk of a SSW as well, but I’m not going to pretend to understand that.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That bomb in the Atlantic. Really? In just 24 hours? 

ECH1-192.gif

ECH1-216.gif

The low that the ECM is forecasting to be over us for a few days phases with the Atlantic low therefore strengthning and increase the area of the low pressure in size, perfectly plausible to be fair but it will be gone by the next run because of the timeframe. 

I think the most dissapointing thing people are feeling slightly on here is not the initial cold pool not being cold enough, its the signal for the Northerly to follow has faded somewhat with the complication of perhaps the initial cold pool getting closer than perhaps first thought thus sending the shallow low up and over us. Still time for many variations just yet though and upper air temps of -8 near the SE is nothing be sniffed at. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

taking the charts in roughly 50hr steps from around the 100hr mark

GEFS

102h  - scandi high in place gens_panel_qbk8.png

150h - 204 h - period to watch for the high moving from scandi > Iceland > Greenland  gens_panel_bkd5.png gens_panel_ymf9.png

252h - more of an unreliable time frame but still BLOCKED gens_panel_ygq3.png

300h + more options on the table so probably not worth focusing on too much

GEM ensembles (same as above)

102h gens_panel_ksy1.png

150h gens_panel_ujp3.png

204h gens_panel_ojg7.png

252h gens_panel_ugc3.png

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

complaint from me is, why perfect setup now, and not in 6-8 weeks, are we unlucky or not? yes amazing FI recently, but no guarantee of cold from 26th?

if there was, then no complaints about perfect setup 6 weeks too soon

Not really. End Feb/early March we had possibly the coldest possible easterly for so late in the month, and that occurred at the right time when air moving out from Siberia was exceptionally cold - even for that part of the world. Not every easterly is going to bring sub zero maximum temperatures, the majority and especially in a warmer world will just be plain cold.

I think what we're seeing unfold is a very typical late November cool/cold spell. The one element that makes it all interesting (together with how deep that anticyclone gets) is how the pressure pattern evolves after the easterly and whether or not the area of high pressure will skate towards Greenland. This is definitely looking edgy at the moment. 

Metoffice latest forecast generally indicates a low probability of disruptive weather occurring. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Comparing the charts to a few days in general it's been a downgrade sadly though we may get a cold/very cold spell at the end of the month 

All things considered we have a mostly trend of cold and blocked around Iceland / Greenland

Please correct me if I'm wrong 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

If ever we needed a good EC46 to make them change their minds about the end of the month its tonight.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

That low at the end of tonight's ECM in the Atlantic develops rapidly with some chilly air still in place certainly at first you have to wonder if it would produce some snow on its leading edge

ECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.6bdf7fdd4ee871ac7abb0b882cdef10a.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.5e13f70490f96f1936017a45762eabac.png1907796187_ECMOPEU12_240_1(1).thumb.png.c6df65e37ebfc2c14421c44f4e54391f.png

ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.4c195fb11e62b88617aef29f6316a03c.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.d07281141873f0732556ed3ad67e4ee5.png456222527_ECMOPEU12_240_2(1).thumb.png.10ca8dfe9b514932b1fc2187f0b8552d.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Comparing the charts to a few days in general it's been a downgrade sadly though we may get a cold/very cold spell at the end of the month 

All things considered we have a mostly trend of cold and blocked around Iceland / Greenland

Please correct me if I'm wrong 

It might be a downgrade if you were expecting nirvana next week, otherwise maybe not so much of one. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

‘As I've said on numerous occasions, the Atlantic will have a part to play in our weather’.

You didn’t say that. You said we would see a quick change to several weeks of Atlantic dominated weather, of which there is no sign in any of the model output. That’s very different to just saying that the Atlantic will have a part to play.

Tiresome.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

‘As I've said on numerous occasions, the Atlantic will have a part to play in our weather’.

You didn’t say that. You said we would see a quick change to several weeks of Atlantic dominated weather, of which there is no sign in any of the model output. That’s very different to just saying that the Atlantic will have a part to play.

Tiresome.

Evening Matt, absolutely agree with you. That person in particular does seem to be a bit 'obtuse' one could say. Although it is worrying where the direction of travel is in the recent model updates.

Edited by AppleUK 123
New Words
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.58b4cabb6ac01ddd81bd4c38b6d8657c.jpg

Pretty much as good as it gets for a mean chart, but look at the spread. Low uncertainty in the Griceland area:

image.thumb.jpg.c38efbc494c1345842f0f86c8d396bf0.jpg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Evening Matt, absolutely agree with you. That person in particular does seem to be a bit 'obtuse' one could say. Although it is worrying where the direction of travel is in the recent model updates.

The stellar, mouth watering charts of recent days (in terms of cold for the UK) may not be showing up anymore but the very blocked theme remains. Certainly no Atlantic dominated conditions showing in the model output. Where the blocking sets up and how exactly it plays out for us is the issue though. The big picture is very promising for those who want cold.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.58b4cabb6ac01ddd81bd4c38b6d8657c.jpg

Pretty much as good as it gets for a mean chart, but look at the spread. Low uncertainty in the Griceland area:

image.thumb.jpg.c38efbc494c1345842f0f86c8d396bf0.jpg

Thank you for injecting something sensible into the discussion!

Better ECM certainly this evening compared to this morning. ECM ensembles show good support for continued heights to our North out until day 11, i’ll update what they’re showing for day 15 once the ensembles roll out that far!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The stellar, mouth watering charts of recent days (in terms of cold for the UK) may not be showing up anymore but the very blocked theme remains. Certainly no Atlantic dominated conditions showing in the model output. Where the blocking sets up and how exactly it plays out for us is the issue though. The big picture is very promising for those who want cold.

Indeed Matt, but I am worried somewhat. For eg, the video posted today by the Met Office,  "I've been talking to the medium range guys, longer range forecasters in regards to snow at end of November and they say there is no strong signal for that!" Wonder why the Met can't see any potential cold. 

Praying for some superb 18Z runs, I hope!  

Edited by AppleUK 123
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

Indeed Matt, but I am worried somewhat. For eg, the video posted today by the Met Office,  "I've been talking to the medium range guys, longer range forecasters in regards to snow at end of November and they say there is no strong signal for that!" Absolutely devastated that the Met Office don't seem to agree with current output.

No - He said that the Met Office said there’s no strong signal going forward and that it was “too early to say” which makes sense given Mondays 46dayer ECM which showed more of a Sceuro height placement as opposed to one that would allow true undercutting of Arctic air.

The 46dayer updates this evening so hopefully it’ll shed a bit more light going forward. ECM and GEFS means remain solid despite Ops being a bit all over the shop today 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

 "I've been talking to the medium range guys, longer range forecasters in regards to snow at end of November and they say there is no strong signal for that!" Absolutely devastated that the Met Office don't seem to agree with current output.

There may be no "strong" signal, but there may be a signal - maybe a moderate one - also, as I understand it, there is no strong signal in the model output. Moral: don't be devastated, just chill, like weather is set too!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

No - He said that the Met Office said there’s no strong signal going forward and that it was “too early to say” which makes sense given Mondays 46dayer ECM which showed more of a Sceuro height placement as opposed to one that would allow true undercutting of Arctic air.

The 46dayer updates this evening so hopefully it’ll shed a bit more light going forward. ECM and GEFS means remain solid despite Ops being a bit all over the shop today 

Hello Daniel, always enjoy reading your tweets! Wouldn't it be more preferable for a Greenland high which will allow proper cold upper air temperatures towards us, rather than a Sceuro?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...