Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[booferking]

Problem area is cycled in the image need the cut back low around the high to merge with low in europe ECM dont do this either does icon GFS or UKMO only model to do this is Gem & GFS Para.

But here comes the shortwave from the north 168hr.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by booferking

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful EC

Just look at the blocking highs across the GIN corridor -

Cold is coming next week- how wonderful with all the christmas lights and christmas markets opening ..very festive charts!!

[bluearmy]

ec day 6 looks more like the control cluster from this morning but isn't too reflective of the control run itself ….. still plenty of uncertainty but good for coldies that the cold pool is supressed south a tad, keeping the less cold uppers further away and the trough is stretched rather than defined and less rounded ….

[Panayiotis]

Feeling raw at 144hrs with easterly winds from the depths of Asia, the shortwave highlighted is NECESSARY for advancing the cold our way!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM looking great.....how can you not like that as a coldie.  BBC 8c for next week Wed onwards.....Let’s revisit next week

 

BFTP

[jules216]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

If only you produced a chart to show this mystical shortwave.

I have circled it for you, its the projected trajectory of this feature that is going to determine the synoptic outcome, ECMWF was so far the most quick to reach UK/IE up until this evenings run, because it had it on the most northernmost trajectory, I would think that if it travels around 300km further south it may not detach the cold uppers for too long that will lie in the north west of Russia, if it travels further north and becomes a circular low, it will advect southerly flow to central Europe and you will be waiting a while before the we can tap on to the really cold source from north-east. The evening GEM is a very good example, where the low pressure stays centered around south of Germany and then shortly connects with the diving low pressure from northeast Europe and we never really loose cold uppers for too long

[Day 10]

The three side by side at 144 for people to compare.

UKMO looks the odd one out at the mo, but some form of general consensus appearing in the mid-term.

[bluearmy]

Raw ec data out to day 7 showing daytime temps around 5/7 c 

The clusters this morning didn’t do too bad a job in relation to this evenings ec op

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The best thing to do, is not to reply or quote a user that you feel is trying to provoke others with their posting. One reply turns in to two, then those two get replies, and the cycle get's out of hand.
Please hit the report button on the post and let the moderators deal with it. 

We want to keep this thread flowing nicely. Carry on! 

Or block the posters whose posts you don’t want to see - makes for a much more pleasant experience!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Raw ec data out to day 7 showing daytime temps around 5/7 c 

The clusters this morning didn’t do too bad a job in relation to this evenings ec op

Nice post,

I would imagine with those daytime temps we will be nearing zero at night under any clear skies..

[terrier]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM looking great.....how can you not like that as a coldie.  BBC 8c for next week Wed onwards.....Let’s revisit next week

 

BFTP

I agree the ecm does look a lot better this evening. But regarding 7-8c next week I think that will be pretty close. Don’t forget the North Sea is still around 12-14c which will moderate cold to our shores quite considerably. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

7 or 8? How underwhelming

exactly, awful EC tonight, wet, windy and feeling slightly chilly

but hopefully the cold will arrive the week of 26th, as shown on many GFS runs, EC not quite that far ahead yet

Edited November 15, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[bluearmy]

ec op at day 9 continues to reflect one of the eps clusters from earlier …… the day 9 temps are colder with a slack southerly flow than the easterly brings

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

7 or 8? How underwhelming

1. That’s the next 7 days, before the cold air was due to arrive anyway

2. It’s November, anyone expecting sub 0c maximas are having a giggle with themselves

[Nick L]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM looking great.....how can you not like that as a coldie.  BBC 8c for next week Wed onwards.....Let’s revisit next week

 

BFTP

To be fair, the EC has temps of 5-7c for most, so based on that it's not much different.

[weathergeek]

It was supposed to be very warm 17c today but it wasn't. A whole week for temps to adjust yet.

On 12/11/2018 at 23:45, feb1991blizzard said:

A

[Panayiotis]

Major improvements with the ECM tonight, anything after 144hrs is in the unreliable. But for some commentary, the ECM at 216hrs can go one of two ways; low in the Atlantic drives up the Azores high pressure putting the UK in a somewhat bad position for cold, or the better option in where the low slides to the SE to merge with low pressure over the Med putting the UK in another easterly flow with a more sustained route to cold.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Panayiotis

[northwestsnow]

Is that low going to dive/disrupt at the end? I think it will ..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

at 240, beast coming?

[mb018538]

I don’t understand what some people were expecting? Maxes of 2-3c? Reality check - it’s still November, the seas were very warm this year after the hot summer, and the uppers aren’t bone chilling. 6-8c is perfectly reasonable. If it had been 2 months later it’s a different ball game.

Edited November 15, 2018 by mb018538

[blizzard81]

That bomb in the Atlantic. Really? In just 24 hours? 

[SMU]

Yes ECM operational tonight back amoungst the pack in terms of feesable outcomes - Note the deep cold still heading this way in all models, thats the same models that had no cold reaching the UK initially then have upgraded as we go along-

I think maxima in the SE will be 3-6 Tues / Weds with heavy showers, sleet / snow on the hills

Heres todays ECM 144 v 168 note everything thats been highlighted yesterday around it being progressive & the eastern end of the block being saggy has all been corrected today...

Yesterday 168 First...

 

[northwestsnow]

we would be very unlucky of cold did not follow on from day 10 IMHO..

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&ech=192&carte=1

 

all  i say anything after  312  hr is a coldies  dream

[MattStoke]

Not sure where complaints/surprise at a lack of deep cold next week has come from. Deep cold has never been shown on a single run of any computer model for next week. It’s all about building the right pattern this early in the season.

Edited November 15, 2018 by MattStoke