Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[mother nature rocks]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Cold is a little delayed but the important thing here is that the high does not sink, it just sortof lingers and eventually we get some real cold from the North-East coming in over the UK

Not the fastest, cleanest route to cold possible but it's a route to cold nonetheless, all routes appear to be leading to the same outcome, just a variation on the theme. Nothing to be disappointed about this evening.

That last part is put perfectly. Why oh why do some people get hung up on one run. The charts we have been seeing over the last few days have been incredible so at times a few runs won’t be quite as good BUT the route still leads to cold!!

For me a perfect way to start winter and a lot better than some winters over recent years.

My research during this autumn and professional opinions which I have seen keep me very much interested as this pattern could well be with us for a long time. 

Sit back and enjoy!! ️️

MNR

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can already see the model fatigue creeping in amongst some, the same as what happened during the beast from the east! 

Conclusively, there looks to be a cold shot nailed on. As ever, the devil is in the detail. But I wouldn’t be chucking toys out of the buggy, when it is approaching December and charts that seem like a real dream coming into reality! 

[Ali1977]

Whatever happens towards the end of Nov will still rapidly cool down Northern Europe , especially Scandinavia giving plenty of snow cover - moving forward this is no bad thing and a second wave of Easterlies should the first brake down could be far more potent 

[lassie23]

Anyone would think they cold spell is already over lol, it hasn't even arrived yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

49 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I said a shift towards. Big difference between being the same mate. Read the post. Anyway, I'll stop posting as clearly a few people are bothered. 

One run, we are a week away from evolution......folk need to watch and see developments.....what were your thoughts 7-10 days ago on the models?  And this is a generic question ....not what is now showing.... I suspect.  What I say by this...the 12z today is no more than 00z or 06z today....let’s see over next few days and indeed Monday......but what I say is the route is cold...to colder

 

BFTP

Edited November 15, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Derecho]

12z swingometers.

Arctic airmasses with the really cold uppers not out of the question yet. A small rise in the number of runs with average uppers and anticyclonic types (November 25th)

[MattStoke]

Shame there is no shift at all towards Atlantic dominated weather then  Therefore, you are either trolling or haven’t a clue how to read the charts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z evolves in a fairly unique way IMO...not only is it unlike the ECM, it's even unlike itself??

And where's the jet stream gone?

I wonder how long that HP would need to hang about, for nighttime temperatures to reach minus double digits?

Pete...that’s cold....but as I have been hinted before and a ‘watch’ from me..the potential LP west of Iceland looks like a ‘bomb’ to move NNW/SSE to me

 

BFTP

Edited November 15, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

One run, we are a week away from evolution......folk need to watch and see developments.....what were your thoughts 7-10 days ago on the models?  And this is a genetic question to all ....not what is now showing I suspect.  What I say by this...the 12z today is no more than 00z or 06z today....let’s see over next few days and indeed Monday

 

BFTP

I think me and you were one of the only few that were posting on here saying that the models were going to soon be showing colder weather for the end of November, then a couple of cold runs came out and we went through the whole "It's 300 hours away" stuff and now everyone in on board chasing this cold spell, it's been fascinating to see the evolution of not only the models finally showing what we were expecting them to show, but also how people on here have reacted to it, too. 

I'll be honest I wasn't expecting the models to show anything quite as extreme as a couple of the GFS runs, but I was certainly expecting a cool down and given the models today, that still hasn't changed. 

Many changes to come I suspect but the theme for me remains consistent. Turning colder at the end of the month, it was always going to be a slow burner scenario but I think the wait will pay off.

[Team Jo]

Aaaaaaand back to the models please.

It’s one run. And also this isn’t the place for oneupmanship and ‘I told you so’ and winters over and all that. It’s the same year after year after year and if posters don’t like the rules and want to stick to the forum etiquette then they can post somewhere else. We don’t tolerate personal attacks or just general poor behaviour. Let’s just be grateful we have this kind of cold potential even in the offering for this time of year, some of you have very short memories.

Thanks!

 

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Team Jo

[Met4Cast]

Day 10 GEFS ensemble mean looking great, by the way! I suspect op is going to be rather out of kilter with the ensembles

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

I think me and you were one of the only few that were posting on here saying that the models were going to soon be showing colder weather for the end of November, then a couple of cold runs came out and we went through the whole "It's 300 hours away" stuff and now everyone in on board chasing this cold spell, it's been fascinating to see the evolution of not only the models finally showing what we were expecting them to show, but also how people on here have reacted to it, too. 

I'll be honest I wasn't expecting the models to show anything quite as extreme as a couple of the GFS runs, but I was certainly expecting a cool down and given the models today, that still hasn't changed. 

Many changes to come I suspect but the theme for me remains consistent. Turning colder at the end of the month, it was always going to be a slow burner scenario but I think the wait will pay off.

The change will be stark Dan imo.....cold enough foe lowland snow for Southern England by end of month.  Models still resolving and catching up

 

BFTP

[phil nw.]

Coldies should be very happy with current outputs showing extensive blocking from Scandinavia towards Iceland especially so early in the season.

The PV getting plenty of hits before it can properly establish.This is the UKMO at T120hrs,,but i would be happy with any of the main models at the moment.

Inevitably some detail will vary run to run but the overall picture of a weakened Atlantic sector and blocking just to our north and north east is the main theme across the board.

On that basis there's about to be a big change in air mass over the next few days,comparing 2, GFS charts T72hrs and then T120hrs

From a mild southerly to a much colder easterly by next Tuesday as the block centres around the Iceland/Norwegian sea area advecting the cold from the ne towards us.It looks like we drop temperatures from the giddy heights of 15/16c in some places today down to around 6/7C early next week.Not yet freezing but it will feel much colder than anything we have had daytime so far,especially in that raw easterly.

Certainly no sign of any Atlantic driven weather which for later in November is quite unusual.

[bluearmy]

the gefs mean looks pretty wintry but the individual members show a wide range of solutions …………………  still tail and donkey …….

[Summer Sun]

Snow row up to 20% on the 12z

12z

06z

Edited November 15, 2018 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the gefs mean looks pretty wintry but the individual members show a wide range of solutions …………………  still tail and donkey …….

Yes quite a lot of divergence Blue, although most roads lead to a cold outcome, be that 'surface' cold or '850' cold..

[SMU]

Minimal time to post before ECM

lots of model entropy post 144- however on the whole the core theme is the blocking centred towards Iceland -

The deep cold moving out of russia will need a trigger low to recurve the flow SW to the UK

those that develop it like the GEM produce a great NE flow ( see circled )

If this fails to develop the block becomes slightly tilted on its axis allowing for the SE to be a nit saggy pushing SE winds across europe a bit like the ECM showed yesterday

thats about the crux of it...

[Mucka]

Until we get all the Op's singing from the same hymn sheet  and backed by the ensemble mean then nothing is nailed on, but then we already know that, right?

Any real cold was always programmed for end of Nov /early Dec and that is till FI so the one thing we can guarantee is run to run divergence.

Until then it is a case of looking at the broader patterns and the broader pattern is prominent blocking.

[Panayiotis]

Crucial part coming up for ECM at 96hrs, need to see this depression (shown on the 00z) to eject smoothly away from Greenland like the GEM has it:

Edited November 15, 2018 by Panayiotis

[Man With Beard]

Some things to bear in mind when thinking about snow chances for next week :

- It's going to be a fairly long lived easterly, and so uppers will become less important as time goes on

- We will be less than a month from the winter solstice by this time next week, so without southerly or westerly input, the trend will be to cool not warm as time goes on

- isn't the GFS parallel verifying much better than the GFS op, if so, shouldn't we be discussing that more on here? Tonight, it shuts out mild sources pretty much until the end of the run

[Panayiotis]

Much better from the ECM 12z @ 96hrs, see how the depression (compared to the 00z on the left) has moved away from Greenland...(comparison to the GEM on the right)

Edited November 15, 2018 by Panayiotis

[Panayiotis]

Now if I were to picture a beautiful chart for cold prospects, the ECM 12z @120hrs would probably be a good match, look at the differences between the 00z and 12z, northern hemispheric and locally! 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Panayiotis

[ICE COLD]

Is T120 looking very good or is it me ? 

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Much better from the ECM 12z @ 96hrs, see how the depression (compared to the 00z on the left) has moved away from Greenland...(comparison to the GEM on the right)

00z the depression is 12hrs behind as were 12z it has moved 12z forward of course it will look like it cleared everything is moving around the block?

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some things to bear in mind when thinking about snow chances for next week :

- It's going to be a fairly long lived easterly, and so uppers will become less important as time goes on

- We will be less than a month from the winter solstice by this time next week, so without southerly or westerly input, the trend will be to cool not warm as time goes on

- isn't the GFS parallel verifying much better than the GFS op, if so, shouldn't we be discussing that more on here? Tonight, it shuts out mild sources pretty much until the end of the run

the voice of reason MWB …. been making this point for weeks ………………… ecm progressive with the cold pool …….very close to the 12z gfsp