Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Absolutely. 6z was perfect was deep cold. But I said the GFS will move towards the ECM and it has, Everyone else was saying that the ECM op was an outlier and will join forces

Again i know this is a random question but when a high sits at its center over the sea between Iceland and Norway that is called a Sceuro high.

No model get anything nailed at 5 days away and what always happens is that all models move towards the correct solution. Don't think you have to be Nasturdamous to have guessed that the GFS would not be 100% correct at day 8 

[Met4Cast]

24 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

    

Huge shift from GFS to ECM (GFS 6z on right). I hope people finally realise I'm not trolling. I try and give a realistic view.

Mate, just give it up.

It's not even close to the ECM, look whats coming down through Scandinavia. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Paul

[Methuselah]

I do believe that that's our first ever example of a 'displaced sceuro'.

[Bobafet]

12 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Absolutely. 6z was perfect was deep cold. But I said the GFS will move towards the ECM and it has, Everyone else was saying that the ECM op was an outlier and will join forces

Why has this thread turned into the I told you so and I knew better thread?

None of these charts have verified yet and will more than likely change by the morning anyway.

I believe we will end up with a halfway house and the ECM will move towards the GFS a bit.  I also believe this is the first bite of the cherry and further down the line (early December) we will begin to reap the rewards!

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Bobafet
Typo

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Mate, just give it up.

It's not even close to the ECM, look whats coming down through Scandinavia. Your posts are growing as tiresome as Brexit now.

I said a shift towards. Big difference between being the same mate. Read the post. Anyway, I'll stop posting as clearly a few people are bothered. 

[Skullzrulerz]

Can't we all just get along

Okay the GFS has downgraded a bit and a models have turned to ECM a bit

It's the trend we want and that is cold 

As far as we could know maybe the ECM could go into GFS land a few days ago so who knows 

We shouldn't start a war over it

Edited November 15, 2018 by Skullzrulerz
Added to post

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I said a HUGE shift towards. Big difference between being the same mate. Read the post. Anyway, I'll stop posting as clearly a few people are bothered. 

Whats happening to the Jet on the 12GFS run BTW?

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

    

Huge shift from GFS to ECM (GFS 6z on right). I hope people finally realise I'm not trolling. I try and give a realistic view. Apologies are due from some people I think

You are right in that the GFS moved towards the ECM but what you are also showing just how much variation we will see especially as the models do struggle more in these type of set ups. I think its too easy to get sucked into each run and think that will how exactly this will play out when in reality, that won't be the case whatever it shows.

Lets see what the ECM throws up tonight, should be interesting. 

 

[jethro]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And on that note (with only Dorset free of knee-deep snow) we end the run with freezing-fog and some lovely hoarfrost...

Somerset's also a snow free zone but I'll happily settle for thick Hoare frost, love that kind of weather and it seems even rarer than snow.

[mulzy]

The GFS has *moved* towards the ECMWF.  The cold-pool shortwave is progged to come in quicker and at a slightly more northerly trajectory.  This makes a big difference in the medium term.  However, the end destination is still cold and blocked.

To be honest, I prefer a slow burner!

Edited November 15, 2018 by mulzy

[Day 10]

Miles away at 240 but nothing to complain about here, mild, wet & windy certainly isn't on the cards.

Fantastic potential as we head toward Winter.

 

[inghams85]

21 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Quite, a forecast, so with respect to yourself and GP, it is just that a forecast, I admit I have not read the post from GP but will go and do so, which may cause me to amend this reply

Of course it's just a forecast and just my opinion John. Convection is due to crank up in the Central Pacific and move West. If I was being completely honest with lag I would suggest MJO to affect nearer the second week of December but what we see manifest is a slow down in zonal winds and a displacement of the PV to Siberia. The MJO just consolidates this signal on top the week after if anything 

[seabreeze86]

GEM has this nailed in my opinion. But 

[Met4Cast]

Cold is a little delayed but the important thing here is that the high does not sink, it just sortof lingers and eventually we get some real cold from the North-East coming in over the UK

Not the fastest, cleanest route to cold possible but it's a route to cold nonetheless, all routes appear to be leading to the same outcome, just a variation on the theme. Nothing to be disappointed about this evening.

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful GFS 12z with blocking galore across Scandy/Iceland/Greenland!

If thats a move to EC then i will take it gladly

Edited November 15, 2018 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful GFS 12z with blocking galore across Scandy/Iceland/Greenland!

If thats a move to EC then i will take it gladly

It would not surprise me now if ecm comes up trumps with a beauty of a run!no denying this gfs run has sort of gone towards ecm but not the full wack!!ah well hopefully we get a few flurries from the initial easterly!!850 temps look to be between -5 to -7 so cold enough maybe from a continental source!!

[Scandinavian High.]

Still lot more changes to come sit back in joy winter is coming ecm will be different I don’t think models have right placement regarding high pressure more changes to come..

[northwestsnow]

As i suspected GFS 12Z bringing in some very cold surface conditions late Nov with temps well into low single figures and close to freezing or below at night..

Perfect way to end the month..

[Mapantz]

The best thing to do, is not to reply or quote a user that you feel is trying to provoke others with their posting. One reply turns in to two, then those two get replies, and the cycle get's out of hand.
Please hit the report button on the post and let the moderators deal with it. 

We want to keep this thread flowing nicely. Carry on! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Amazing run from the GFS 12z. Nice to see the jet stream to the south for the whole period

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As i suspected GFS 12Z bringing in some very cold surface conditions late Nov with temps well into low single figures and close to freezing or below at night..

Perfect way to end the month..

Very decent indeed. Variations on a theme of cold run to run. A very happy place for UK weather fans in November IMHO. 

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Again i know this is a random question but when a high sits at its center over the sea between Iceland and Norway that is called a Sceuro high.

No model get anything nailed at 5 days away and what always happens is that all models move towards the correct solution. Don't think you have to be Nasturdamous to have guessed that the GFS would not be 100% correct at day 8 

A sceuro high is an upper ridge that sits over Scandinavia, ridging down into Europe to its south ...... it doesn’t usually bring upper cold to the uk as the mean flow is se or south 

 

[Methuselah]

The 12Z evolves in a fairly unique way IMO...not only is it unlike the ECM, it's even unlike itself??

And where's the jet stream gone?

I wonder how long that HP would need to hang about, for nighttime temperatures to reach minus double digits?

Edited November 15, 2018 by Ed Stone
Question added.

[MattStoke]

What WW actually said was that we would see the high sink and be replaced by weeks of zonal weather. None of which is shown by any of the computer models. He’s just posting utter nonsense.

Outlook and model output remains blocked. No Atlantic driven weather whatsoever.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z evolves in a fairly unique way IMO...not only is it unlike the ECM, it's even unlike itself??

And where's the jet stream gone?

Here we go Ed. Watch old Uncle J.S. 'disappear'