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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

Gem is an example what happens if that stupid shortwave doesn't travel so fast as I was alluding  to numerous times before. Unfortunately the trend today,- ICON,UKMO and ECMWF det. is for a progressive solution

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm thinking that any snow, from this situation, will be very marginal: DPs and sea-tracks being of particular importance?

Netweather GFS Image

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daz_4 Community Regular

daz_4

Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
Posted
1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Gem is an example what happens if that stupid shortwave doesn't travel so fast as I was alluding  to numerous times before. Unfortunately the trend today,- ICON,UKMO and ECMWF det. is for a progressive solution

GEM is definitely what I would like to see. Low pressure over SE Europe is crucial for this evolution I think.

gem-0-144.png?12 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Gem is an example what happens if that stupid shortwave doesn't travel so fast as I was alluding  to numerous times before. Unfortunately the trend today,- ICON,UKMO and ECMWF det. is for a progressive solution

If only you produced a chart to show this mystical shortwave.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Differences are so subtle between some runs yet the consequences are so stark for the few days that follow 

Agreed Blue, any thoughts on UKMO? I  would suggest it will not follow this mornings EC ..

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted

gfsnh-0-150.png?12

+150h GFS12z.  Keep an eye on that developing low south of newfoundland - that's the trigger for retrogression if all goes smoothly.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The cold air is held back from western Greenland upto T108, it looks ok so far (I think).  

But not for long enough as it does arrive shortly after, the high isn't really pulled towards Greenland and we see a backtrack towards the UKMO and ECM. Cold air infiltrating Greenland is what encourages high pressure to sink.

We get our drizzly cloudy easterly out of the way and await our next turn.

image.thumb.png.4beb4f8cfec9db27f79622cba8240b86.png Our first chance of real cold may not materialise but hopefully we can get a setup conductive to further reloads  

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

Stronger heights into Greenland on GFS at +147 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

short term pain = long term gain!..

the pressure rises put a squeeze on the pooling...

although shaping of hp cell-north..benefits longer term for cutting and probbing toward-greenland...and into the pole as a whole!!

gfs-0-156.png

Screenshot_2018-11-15-16-18-06.png

Edited by tight isobar
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

12z is a cracker look at the heights moving in to Greenland!! 850s will come with time.

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
9 minutes ago, terrier said:

So confusing some say Ukmo moves towards the ecm. Gfs has stonking cold run incoming. Ecm will climb down later towards the gfs. Not surprised some of us get confused. 

Tell me about it

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
58 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

See GP's post this morning this is due to change in the week 2 forecast. Phases 7/8 will be reflected in time

Quite, a forecast, so with respect to yourself and GP, it is just that a forecast, I admit I have not read the post from GP but will go and do so, which may cause me to amend this reply

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

I think one thing to note is if another bout of PV does drop into Scandinavia, then today's runs is showing that it will take longer to do so because things are now starting to get messy and quite flabby in parts. The more I look at the outlook then the more of "its only November" comes to mind with the lack of cold being an issue here. 

So turning cooler and temps could be below average but certainly no snowfall in the outlook as of yet. 

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted
Just now, Geordiesnow said:

I think one thing to note is if another bout of PV does drop into Scandinavia, then today's runs is showing that it will take longer to do so because things are now starting to get messy and quite flabby in parts. The more I look at the outlook then the more of "its only November" comes to mind with the lack of cold being an issue here. 

So turning cooler and temps could be below average but certainly no snowfall in the outlook as of yet. 

Get the cold in first worry about snow later.. I think ever single snow event here has been based upon that theory.. 

Ideally you want something that is shaping up in the models to be coming the back end of December when the sun is at its absolute minimum and the days are as short as it gets.. But beggers can't be choosers! 

Intresting low the GFS is keen to develop to the east of the UK and track west..how many times in the last 100 years has that happened I wonder.. 

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

gfsnh-0-174.png?12  gfsnh-0-180.png?6

Heading closer to a sceuro high is the GFS compared to 6z

That would be one spin on it. Another would be to note that both charts show a colossal tropospheric vortex split right across the pole. It's just variations on a theme. If anyone used the 6z as their benchmark, then only disappointment will follow.

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WalsallWeather123 Enthusiast

WalsallWeather123

Posted
Posted
Just now, Yarmy said:

That would be one spin on it. Another would be to note that both charts show a colossal tropospheric vortex split right across the pole. It's just variations on a theme. If anyone used the 6z as their benchmark, then only disappointment will follow.

Absolutely. 6z was perfect was deep cold. But I said the GFS will move towards the ECM and it has, Everyone else was saying that the ECM op was an outlier and will join forces

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Connor Bailey Degnan Community Regular

Connor Bailey Degnan

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
Posted

Clear move towards the ecm from the icon and gfs. watch the ecm deliver a 2010 style set up later

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

image.thumb.png.e83565d37bddeb13d66d47074c84e7fe.png

A deep low gives us another chance on this run, if WAA is sufficient the Greeland high pumps up and advects cold into Scandi, if not the cold pool will take the path of the red arrow instead

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
Just now, Surrey said:

Get the cold in first worry about snow later.. I think ever single snow event here has been based upon that theory.. 

Ideally you want something that is shaping up in the models to be coming the back end of December when the sun is at its absolute minimum and the days are as short as it gets.. But beggers can't be choosers! 

Intresting low the GFS is keen to develop to the east of the UK and track west..how many times in the last 100 years has that happened I wonder.. 

Unfortunately the cold comes in but gets diluted as the cold pool of air gets cut off as the high to the North does not retrogress far enough into Greenland and in fairness all gets rather complicated. 

I disagree with the poster  that the start of next week will be a cloudy drizzly easterly, the convective potential is there if it does fall into place, especially the further South you are and maybe I was a bit hasty on there being no snow potential in my last post. If and its a big IF the cold pool gets far enough North then some wintriness in any showers is possible although there certainly won't be any settling snow as of yet. As the cold air and the instability dilutes however, then it starts to become a cloudy raw easterly again.

Lots to sort out though so will be interesting how this blocking story will develop in the coming days. 

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