Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Guest]

So if the ECM is wrong and the GFS etc is correct when would we see a shift from the ECM? maybe none of them are right? asking for a friend!

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Before the trolling starts, ICON isn't terrible.

It's certainly a slow burner and isn't quite as fast with the direct cold but you've got pretty extensive blocking to the North there and with low pressure sitting over the UK it isn't really going to sink anywhere, heights re-newing over Scandi would eventually open up a more direct cold airflow. 

It's just another variation on the theme, which is extensive Northern blocking and eventual cold into the UK.

The 2 lows i circled are to close for my liking if they phase everything collapses would have loved to see the icon at 216hr and 240hr..

[Dennis]

Latest NAO forecast

[Methuselah]

There's a snowmonster waiting in the Arctic Circle!

[WalsallWeather123]

A sceuro high wouldn't bring in deep cold from the NE like a greenland high would. Of course thing are going to get colder but for deep cold and snow we need a greenland high for this time of the year. A sceuro high won't cut it. Lets see what this GFS run will bring

[Geordiesnow]

Of course the ironies of the ECM run is that if it was deeper into winter and if there was more cold pooling over the continent then the potential for a persistent snow event would be there with the low coming up from the South, it does complicate the overall set up mind if that does occur which is in fairness plausible.

You do get a slight nagging feeling that it has all came just a bit too early and with more luck(e.g more colder air to play with) things could be different because synotopics wise, they are a snow lovers dream really.

As per ever, the details will no doubt change so the low heading up from the South is by no means a certainity. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

A sceuro high wouldn't bring in deep cold from the NE like a greenland high would. Of course thing are going to get colder but for deep cold and snow we need a greenland high for this time of the year. A sceuro high won't cut it. Lets see what this GFS run will bring

A sceuro high would actually potentially bring some very cold surface conditions in late November..

Likely not the low 850s but i would be delighted with a sceuro high personally ..

 

 

[Met4Cast]

The GFS hasn't merged the two lows, cold run incoming!

ECM.. over to you

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

A sceuro high would actually potentially bring some very cold surface conditions in late November..

Likely not the low 850s but i would be delighted with a sceuro high personally ..

 

 

Surface cold, yes absolutely. But I'm sure most are chasing snow which we need a greenland high for this time of year

[WalsallWeather123]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The GFS hasn't merged the two lows, cold run incoming!

ECM.. over to you

Yes but the two lows are much closer together than the 6z. Small changes 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Surface cold, yes absolutely. But I'm sure most are chasing snow which we need a greenland high for this time of year

Of course i can only speak for myself

But yes, sceuro would potentially be inversion cold which at the time of year could be freezing, (short days etc).

[Met4Cast]

UKMO 120 fantastic

No backdown there either which is unsurprising given the ECM is against 85% of not only it's own ensemble suite, but the suite of the GEFS too. Expect a rare ECM climbdown this evening.

[Derecho]

I think the problem is this low was forecast to go under the block but is now going towards Greenland.

It is a potential trouble causer and on the milder runs it stops the high from retrogressing far enough west and as a result the high gets stuck over the continent to an extent still.

The result of this is that the cold air goes over Russia instead of Scandi.

The result would be a sleety grey easterlies for a few days and then a return to mild weather unless another high pressure cell builds in the NW North Atlantic.

People have been too quick to dismiss the idea as it appeared on the ECM, this is our key point.

The 06z ensembles still saw a lot of retrogression though. Keep our feet on the ground is all I am warning

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Surface cold, yes absolutely. But I'm sure most are chasing snow which we need a greenland high for this time of year

Except in those historical situations when we didn't:

[daz_4]

UKMO is also pretty similar to ECM.

[tight isobar]

tbf-.. im liking the hp slant and evo.

can see some serious kick of cold advection as we develop!!!

everthing playing in sync.

and the spill seems 'somewhat primmed'..

steady as we go !

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think the problem is this low was forecast to go under the block but is now going towards Greenland.

It is a potential trouble causer and on the milder runs it stops the high from retrogressing far enough west and as a result the high gets stuck over the continent to an extent still.

The result of this is that the cold air goes over Russia instead of Scandi.

The result would be a sleety grey easterlies for a few days and then a return to mild weather unless another high pressure cell builds in the NW North Atlantic.

People have been too quick to dismiss the idea as it appeared on the ECM, this is our key point.

The 06z ensembles still saw a lot of retrogression though. Keep our feet on the ground is all I am warning

The cold air is held back from western Greenland upto T108, it looks ok so far (I think).  

[Met4Cast]

You'd struggle to draw a straighter line of WAA into Greenland with a ruler

Sharper Easterly across the UK too helping to bring the cold pool in a little closer/earlier. 

UKMO 144 whilst not as good as this mornings GFS run, certainly isn't a 'backtrack' as much as certain members are trying to wish one into existence.

[Seasonal Trim]

There has been too many occasions when there has been one model out on its own, and the others have eventually fallen into line with said model! I'm still excited, but watching with a huge amount of caution. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Nizzer

[SLEETY]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

UKMO is also pretty similar to ECM.

dash,few weeks later that would have been heavy snow here.Lets hope the pattern continues into winter

[Met4Cast]

GEM about to kick out a belter of a run, too!

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS appears cleaner & less progressive-

The ECM brings in the wave from the east at about 144 then lifts it out N.west towards Iceland at 168- all other models hold that wave in situ over the UK 

so as it stands ECM is the outlier...

But with the ECM as outlier, surely this is all the more reason to keep our powder dry?

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks absolutely fine to me !!

[bluearmy]

Differences are so subtle between some runs yet the consequences are so stark for the few days that follow 

[terrier]

So confusing some say Ukmo moves towards the ecm. Gfs has stonking cold run incoming. Ecm will climb down later towards the gfs. Not surprised some of us get confused.