Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Well, it's been hard to believe some of the charts coming out in past days - I still wish we were seeing these four to six weeks down the road with a frigid Europe but there you go.

The NH profiles are remarkable and are more reminiscent of a post-SSW phase than early winter when you would expect the PV to be ramping up and a stream of LP systems to be forming and deepening as they move NE on a powerful jet stream.

 

[Met4Cast]

Low solar activity and huge ice losses are certainly making themselves known across the Northern Hemisphere. We've got a very sluggish, loopy jet stream with virtually no trop vortex to give it a boost. 

 

Given the EPS/Clusters you'd imagine a big improvement on the ECM this evening, 12z GFS I suspect will be much the same as we've seen in the past few runs. 

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

Well, it's been hard to believe some of the charts coming out in past days - I still wish we were seeing these four to six weeks down the road with a frigid Europe but there you go.

The NH profiles are remarkable and are more reminiscent of a post-SSW phase than early winter when you would expect the PV to be ramping up and a stream of LP systems to be forming and deepening as they move NE on a powerful jet stream.

 

What's to say we won't

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Low solar activity and huge ice losses are certainly making themselves known across the Northern Hemisphere. We've got a very sluggish, loopy jet stream with virtually no trop vortex to give it a boost. 

 

Given the EPS/Clusters you'd imagine a big improvement on the ECM this evening, 12z GFS I suspect will be much the same as we've seen in the past few runs. 

Ignore the ECM for worldie charts. Last week into first week of December has always been signposted. This before hand is just a bonus. That is a 360 hour mean chart and is exactly the time frame we should be getting excited about. It comes about due to a combination of MJO 7/8/1 phases and the lag effect on the strat due to the current Scandinavian record breaking heights initiating record breaking wave breaking. It basically creates a vacuum for Greenland heights.

[bluearmy]

Good to see that eps day 15 chart for everyone to see - the trend is for the jet to be drifting further north and meeting with the cold air across the southern half of the uk - we wouldn’t want to see this drifting further north at this early stage of the winter - once very cold air was entrenched across the uk and Europe to our south and se, that pattern would be very snowy 

[Met4Cast]

ICON is great! 

[johnholmes]

re this Inghams 85

It comes about due to a combination of MJO 7/8/1 phases and the lag effect on the strat due to the current Scandinavian record breaking heights initiating record breaking wave breaking. It basically creates a vacuum for Greenland heights.

Can you explain this a bit more please?

The MJO is barely outside the 'ring of death' as some call it on here, not much amplitude so not having much effect anyway. Also only 2 of those phases suggest blocking to the NW, or am I missing something?

Could well be of course with me!

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

re this Inghams 85

It comes about due to a combination of MJO 7/8/1 phases and the lag effect on the strat due to the current Scandinavian record breaking heights initiating record breaking wave breaking. It basically creates a vacuum for Greenland heights.

Can you explain this a bit more please?

The MJO is barely outside the 'ring of death' as some call it on here, not much amplitude so not having much effect anyway. Also only 2 of those phases suggest blocking to the NW, or am I missing something?

Could well be of course with me!

See GP's post this morning this is due to change in the week 2 forecast. Phases 7/8 will be reflected in time

[WalsallWeather123]

ICON upgrading the cold over the UK. Still looking like cold rain though

[Chesil View]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

ICON upgrading the cold over the UK. Still looking like cold rain though

Not those minus 8's move in

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ICON upgrading the cold over the UK. Still looking like cold rain though

That high over the scandi regions is stopping the really cold air advancing west note the difference in position to GFS. Still turning cold but as you say more likely cold rain.

ICON 12z                                                         GFS 06z

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

A stonker coming up, going by the T+0!

[WalsallWeather123]

ICON at T180 looks quite poor to me. Thoughts?

[daz_4]

ICON 12z is closer to ECM. The high drifts to SE and blocks the cold air.

[booferking]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

ICON upgrading the cold over the UK. Still looking like cold rain though

Yes but downgrading the longevity need more heights into Greenland like the GFS earlier on like..

[WalsallWeather123]

I think the GFS will come closer to the ECM this run

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, booferking said:

Yes but downgrading the longevity need more heights into Greenland like the GFS earlier on like..

Yes, the end of the run is quite poor. For all the talk of the ECM being an outlier, I can see the other models coming towards it in the coming days

[Met4Cast]

Before the trolling starts, ICON isn't terrible.

It's certainly a slow burner and isn't quite as fast with the direct cold but you've got pretty extensive blocking to the North there and with low pressure sitting over the UK it isn't really going to sink anywhere, heights re-newing over Scandi would eventually open up a more direct cold airflow. 

It's just another variation on the theme, which is extensive Northern blocking and eventual cold into the UK.

[ITSY]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

Yes, the end of the run is quite poor. For all the talk of the ECM being an outlier, I can see the other models coming towards it in the coming days

It would also align with prior indications we discussed several days ago about Exeter favouring a sceuro high outcome. Lets see where the next few hours lead 

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Yes, the end of the run is quite poor. For all the talk of the ECM being an outlier, I can see the other models coming towards it in the coming days

Judging by the EPS suite earlier the ECM is the one more likely to move towards something like the GFS.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I think the GFS will come closer to the ECM this run

Can you provide some evidence for this assertation?

Not saying you will be wrong ..

[northwestsnow]

Maybe the mods should start a hunt for mild thread?

It might be of use..

[markw2680]

I don’t think any of the models have this nailed not by a long chalk so let’s see how the next few days pan out. There’s no downgrade or block collapse or whatever you wana call it, it’s just different options on the table atm. Plenty of time yet

[Met4Cast]

Very slightly further NW with the high so far on the GFS, very early doors but every little helps!

Edited November 15, 2018 by BornFromTheVoid
Mod note: Stick to the model output, cheers.

[SLEETY]

As long as you still have Blocking to the North of the U.K. ,then their always a chance you can tap into much colder air eventually as we head towards winter.Thats  the consistent theme of the models at the moment ,keeping High pressure to the North of the U.K,