Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[terrier]

Well that’s what an amazing run from the gfs06z. But with the ecm not singing from the same hym sheet I’d be very wary of the gfs output at the moment. We must try and remember the ecm is the top performing model in the verification stats. Think all this talk of lake effect snow. And something akin to December 2010 could be wide of the mark. Not trying to be a grinch. Just we need the blocking to set up perfect for our tiny island to be in with a shout. Just a shame these charts aren’t 6 weeks later. 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This morning's clusters are some of the best I've ever seen, not far synoptically off Feb 2018 (without such brutal cold but cold enough).

Even by D15 - absolutely AAAA+++++ for getting a snow event on both clusters. Cluster 1 is a battleground scenario, cluster 2 just allows more cold to sweep down from the NE.

There's very little room for an upgrade from here.

Thought they were, just needed clarification to make sure im not going barmy

 

[daz_4]

Great 6z from Para as well. Block west of UK in FI and widespread cold over the continent and it ends like this.

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Great 6z from Para as well. Block west of UK in FI and widespread cold over the continent and it ends like this.

All good until a rogue shortwave phases across the top of the ridge and sends the cold into Greece and the med.

Grinch mode fully engaged

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

I do enjoy these ECM vs GFS battle royales. The American model still sticking to its guns with cold on the 06z...

Yes me too, have to say though in my experience, EC usually, not always, but usually, comes out on top...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still good GFS after 25th ish, but horrible next week

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

JMA winter forecast update, looking very cold indeed, just for fun, look at February, wow!

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

JMA winter forecast update, looking very cold indeed, just for fun, look at February, wow!

All good - yes fun - but I thought my post for the 25th was well pushing the optimism

[Skullzrulerz]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still good GFS after 25th ish, but horrible next week

I think I misunderstand here what do you mean by horrible? It's looks cold ?

[terrier]

Just another quick point about the gfs output at the moment is we have to remember that the North Sea is around 12-14c still so that will definitely moderate the cold to our shores. Definitely will be interesting to see what the ecm goes onto show this evening. Maybe we will see a half way house between the gfs and ecm in the coming model runs. 

[Geordiesnow]

15 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I think I misunderstand here what do you mean by horrible? It's looks cold ?

I think he means in respect it could be cold and cloudy with no snowfall and although that could be the case, if those lower thicknesses and heights do pop up further North towards the UK which the models are hinting at, then some convective weather could happen because of the warm SST's. Sadly uppers are not cold enough for snowfall really apart from much higher ground in the North.

Nevertheless, it will be an interesting if albeit slow process of just watching that wind gradually getting colder in the next 5 or so days with Tuesday looking like the start where that colder pool potentially arrives.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, terrier said:

Well that’s what an amazing run from the gfs06z. But with the ecm not singing from the same hym sheet I’d be very wary of the gfs output at the moment. We must try and remember the ecm is the top performing model in the verification stats. Think all this talk of lake effect snow. And something akin to December 2010 could be wide of the mark. Not trying to be a grinch. Just we need the blocking to set up perfect for our tiny island to be in with a shout. Just a shame these charts aren’t 6 weeks later. 

It may just be me,but hasn't blocking and alignment set up quite often for us since 2009.

In just the right place too.This is shaping up to be an impressive early season episode.

[ICE COLD]

GFS = superb 

GEFS = Superb 

ECM op = good (could be better)

ECM eps/clusters =superb 

Add all this together and you get an upgrade on the METO outlook . Sounds very good . 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

26 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I think I misunderstand here what do you mean by horrible? It's looks cold ?

next week horrible, 19th to 24th on GFS, I mean, my location looks wet, windy with temps around 8 degrees, then amazing from around 25th

Edited November 15, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

next week horrible, 19th to 24th on GFS, I mean, my location looks wet, windy with temps around 8 degrees, then amazing from around 25th

You never know, mate - we might even be treated to a few wind-driven sleet pellets?

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

next week horrible, 19th to 24th on GFS, I mean, my location looks wet, windy with temps around 8 degrees, then amazing from around 25th

I’m not sure about wet and 8c tbh, obviously time will tell but I think it will be colder than 8 but certainly no washout imo. There may be something white around especially high ground we shall see

[weatherguy]

17 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think he means in respect it could be cold and cloudy with no snowfall and although that could be the case, if those lower thicknesses and heights do pop up further North towards the UK which the models are hinting at, then some convective weather could happen because of the warm SST's. Sadly uppers are not cold enough for snowfall really apart from much higher ground in the North.

Nevertheless, it will be an interesting if albeit slow process of just watching that wind gradually getting colder in the next 5 or so days with Tuesday looking like the start where that colder pool potentially arrives.

It certainly is interesting.  Before the potential fun and games begins around the 24th (caveat as always being that this can and will change, but alas), we have uppers around -4c/-5c by +138h.  Usual wisdom dictates that -5c/-6c is usually sufficient for snowfall, but with low dew points as seen with easterlies then anything below 0c should be snow.  With the high SSTs coming from the time of year, then this helps us on the conduction side of things, but also this certainly modifies the situation regarding the required uppers.  

The result of my rambling?  Inconclusive.  Lamp-watching will be required for this early period...Perhaps limited to night-time.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by weatherguy

[SMU]

2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

@Steve Murr is this what your thinking on the lines of , as in the GFS 6z run ? 

Yes -  A nice clean evolution-

Cracking run...

Eyes down for the 12s...

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes -  A nice clean evolution-

Cracking run...

Eyes down for the 12s...

Sorry for quote you on this 

What are you throughts of the GFS Vs ECM winning as it's 50/50 now ?

[bluearmy]

The ec op is in a small cluster of 11% in the T132/T180 period 

most other clusters are colder and more easterly driven 

at day 8 the control joins the op cluster in a 50/50 split with a se surface feed 

I am a lot less concerned re the ec op having viewed those clusters 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Sorry for quote you on this 

What are you throughts of the GFS Vs ECM winning as it's 50/50 now ?

The GFS appears cleaner & less progressive-

The ECM brings in the wave from the east at about 144 then lifts it out N.west towards Iceland at 168- all other models hold that wave in situ over the UK 

so as it stands ECM is the outlier...

Edited November 15, 2018 by Steve Murr

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Weathizard said:

Whilst the winter wonderland charts are at day 9/10 range I would always rate them as still extremely unlikely, the blocking is a positive but we need it positioned perfectly this early in the season as the deep cold isn’t nearby to tap into initially.

These situations are fraught with danger, as we all know from the fiascos of previous winters, wasn’t trying to be a negative nelly just tempering things a little, also with the ECM being so unlike its mean is concerning, especially 2 consecutive runs.

Nowt wrong with caution as we’ve been burned many times before.  But there is something different going on, there is so much (vast) deep cold pooling going on to our E and NE and it’s marching west.....the timing is spot on....it builds confidence and raises hope to high levels

 

BFTP

[Chesil View]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nowt wrong with caution as we’ve been burned many times before.  But there is something different going on, there is so much (vast) deep cold pooling going on to our E and NE and it’s marching west.....the timing is spot on....it builds confidence and raises hope to high levels

 

BFTP

Indeed BFTP. Caution is always advised with the UK when it comes to cold and snow. We have been burn,t many times in the past, but most of those times there was a half decent polar vortex fighting on the mild side. This time however.....................

[Dennis]

By ec 

 

[ITSY]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

By ec 

 

That is an exceptional mean and better still that it represents a December pattern. You couldn't draw it better - just East enough to avoid Westerly based NAO and just North enough to avoid settled weather in the UK.