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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

I know this is just one run, but what strikes me is the distinct lack of energy in the Atlantic and to our north west. This is a classic set up for wave after wave of snow and occasional blizzards. The atmosphere would be unstable enough at times for troughs to form at short notice to.

That said, I think we would be looking at a much toned down version of this run in reality but its eye candy at its best so just making the most of it.   

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Snow widely across Europe as we start winter

gfs-16-384.thumb.png.86f5cc4197460604ac7ae6d60f4c2b1b.png

Compare that was Dec 1st 2017

25215357_gfs-16-384(1).thumb.png.2aa1cb7177564a0e62d733316e0b5908.png

I love how Dorset is completely snowless lol

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The freezer is at day 10 again, when will we learn   This happens every winter, happy with where we are starting from this winter but would urge caution to anyone posting these glorious charts expecting them to actually occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

I do enjoy these ECM vs GFS battle royales. The American model still sticking to its guns with cold on the 06z...

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The freezer is at day 10 again, when will we learn   This happens every winter, happy with where we are starting from this winter but would urge caution to anyone posting these glorious charts expecting them to actually occur.

To be fair mate they were at days 15 and 16 a few days ago . There now coming into the mid term . If anything the process has sped up . 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
8 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Northern blocking is literally 3 days away. 

It will probably take another 7 days possibly more for real cold to take hold, we've got a warmer than usual North Sea surface temps, 14'C in some spots.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Snow widely across Europe as we start winter

gfs-16-384.thumb.png.86f5cc4197460604ac7ae6d60f4c2b1b.png

Compare that was Dec 1st 2017

25215357_gfs-16-384(1).thumb.png.2aa1cb7177564a0e62d733316e0b5908.png

Look at Spain and Portugal! Mad if it verifies.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

To be fair mate they were at days 15 and 16 a few days ago . There now coming into the mid term . If anything the process has sped up . 

Whilst the winter wonderland charts are at day 9/10 range I would always rate them as still extremely unlikely, the blocking is a positive but we need it positioned perfectly this early in the season as the deep cold isn’t nearby to tap into initially.

These situations are fraught with danger, as we all know from the fiascos of previous winters, wasn’t trying to be a negative nelly just tempering things a little, also with the ECM being so unlike its mean is concerning, especially 2 consecutive runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, booferking said:

I feel steve is doing a massive post patience..

I hope he uses air freshener afterwards... Dodgy kebab last night was it?

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Whilst the winter wonderland charts are at day 9/10 range I would always rate them as still extremely unlikely, the blocking is a positive but we need it positioned perfectly this early in the season as the deep cold isn’t nearby to tap into initially.

These situations are fraught with danger, as we all know from the fiascos of previous winters, wasn’t trying to be a negative nelly just tempering things a little, also with the ECM being so unlike its mean is concerning, especially 2 consecutive runs.

I would normally agree with you on this Weather wizard but there is a difference this time namely the Strange case of the nonexistent polar vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Why is the ECMWF not following the GFS?

For that you must observe what the ECM is showing for a specific atmospheric geographical region ie is high pressure propagating or does it have opportunity to propagate in the atmosphere above Greenland.

ECM’s data (A day behind on FU Berlin site) says no at present. It reaches 144z in line with GFS but from there it cannot accurately follow suit and retains the HP cell to move from Iceland out west of the Uk region.

8EDA69B5-5144-454D-8D5D-63ADBA7FD150.thumb.png.a4c520271baece0e6a0cce648c81a8cd.png

9C24D14E-9421-4534-83BE-C46CE749FD24.thumb.gif.9452593e8ea1b32449efb0cf317a4d25.gif

0C5EBB54-0F7D-487B-A5AF-2A388DC5EA51.thumb.gif.bb85146bea8c845b602a160982615c3c.gif

So follow the higher levels above 500hPa to attain where and what direction High pressure can move towards. 

WQBO already at the 30 hPa level which does make an obstacle to get HLB but not impossible. 

I’ve been hesitant until I could see this window evolve. My confidence has increased to 65% lilkehood of sustainable cold spell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.bbe0f88918de229a1f35c7f97dba2ee6.png

06Z swingometers now show more in the way of colder members in there, still uncertain but a few more with blocking highs over Greenland.

A slight improvement, lets hope it continues and the ECM is wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I dont like those view's of the ECM clusters, im not usually that good at judging them, but are they not a significant upgrade on the 0z suite

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I dont like those view's of the ECM clusters, im not usually that good at judging them, but are they not a significant upgrade on the 0z suite

It's 53% in favour of the ECM OPS way, 47% go GFS way day 8 on. So still uncertain as to whether we can get the deep cold in.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
37 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

It will probably take another 7 days possibly more for real cold to take hold, we've got a warmer than usual North Sea surface temps, 14'C in some spots.

Uppers of -10 to -15 would generate some big amounts of lake effect equivalent snow. Thundersnow would be aplenty like 2010! Even back in February when sea temps were only 4-5c, it caused drifting snow all along the east coast. The conversion rates here would be possibly nothing like I’ve ever seen before!! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
43 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Uppers of -10 to -15 would generate some big amounts of lake effect equivalent snow. Thundersnow would be aplenty like 2010! Even back in February when sea temps were only 4-5c, it caused drifting snow all along the east coast. The conversion rates here would be possibly nothing like I’ve ever seen before!! 

Although I didn't experience any thundersnow myself last February, some of the snowfalls were incredibly intense. And as you say, given the synoptics suggested by the GFS (and the very warm SSTs) thundersnow ought to be all but guaranteed...

Edited by Ed Stone
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