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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.33b34a997a5df13fdd3dfed1fffd1e60.png

00z swingometers. Disappointed with the 00zs this morning. There is no denying it the ECM is poor and wouldn't deliver anything exciting in its timeframe. BUT we do have cold building to the east at least.

The OP and parallel were also pretty good but the amount of blocking seems to be less and we are left in a modestly cold airmass with cold rain on quite a few of them.

Will the 06z turn the tide once again?

are you joking.The ECM is far from poor,Nov,Dec2015 now they were what I would call poor months for cold.Look at the bigger picture rather than hanging off one run,which was one of the warmest runs in its ensemble pack

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could give some pretty hefty snow showers to upland areas, in the east especially:

Netweather GFS Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

The bitter cold certainly building nicely to the North East on this run and inching itself this way.

Cracking charts.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.2f21a23715a0d9cd7d62be2c75e84f54.pnggfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.5a02b6eb87a445c4e9046e35e203c79f.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

B A utifull

AA9C4F7C-B755-40B1-A8A9-0CFD52B0F0CF.png

What a fantastic chart, crazy 850s into Scandy for November heading into NE Europe. This in Jan would be extreme cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not only a possible freezing fog-fest, but an LP moving from east to west...

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Polar low heading down the eastern flank of the block between T192 and T210. Will it reach Blighty?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

are you joking.The ECM is far from poor,Nov,Dec2015 now they were what I would call poor months for cold.Look at the bigger picture rather than hanging off one run,which was one of the warmest runs in its ensemble pack

No I'm not joking I'm telling it as it is. Within the ECM timeframe all we may see is sleet for areas in the SE on Wednesday.

If the mild air wins out we are back to the mild weather in the first half of November. Hardly something to go down in history. It may be warmer then its ensemble but that doesn't mean it isn't plausible.

Just my unbiased opinion of it. The GFS 06z though is a lot better, its shaping up to be a classic.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Heavy snow arriving in Scotland at 222 and heading South.

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.b14ea7fb3ac52440d0017c7d7c5244a5.pnggfsnh-2-222.thumb.png.547c21009f3f4893668c8b51b0ea75a4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Told you it was going to be a stonker - the SPP index is massively positive on this run - off the scale  (thats the self perpetuating pattern index), i just knew it would keep reloading from the NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

This is the best run I have ever seen I think. Sorry for the one liner. 

Yes it wipes the floor over the ECM completely, its up there with some of the runs we saw at the end of February!! The UK would get buried. First a really brisk easterly

GFSOPEU06_312_1.png

And then a snowy area of low pressure to the North

GFSOPEU06_372_2.png

This is what we want!!!! not the poor ECM

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