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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

It seems to me that both the ECM and GFS are leading all roads to a colder path, the the GFS sending Polar air our way from the NE and the Nly. And the ECM preferring to bring Europe into the freezer first then us . That high pressure block to the North of us would be great news for cold winter loving peeps who are getting an early treat in mid November. 

Big changes are afoot as we say goodbye to this horrid wet yucky sunless autumn. The Atlantic has been effectively shut off. Blocking to our North present.  Whether we get big dumpings of snow and is another question. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

More variations on a theme from the ECM. The op looks to be way out of kilter with its ensembles. Far too progressive with any Atlantic influence in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

EPS far better than the Op out to day 10, the ensemble mean out to 360hrs is decent with heights remaining to our North and low pressure South into much of Europe too, though obviously the signal is a little diluted by that point. 

Still good going forward, no change despite ECM Det being a bore 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

You have to say the runs are simply sublime this morning , OK there are some differences but all in all, the theme of blocking highs at high latitude and euro low pressure looks a go-er.

I posted the meto France outlook by Fred Decker at the turn of the month which was pointing to the above and at this stage it looks an absolutely fabulous call.

Even the EC op which again looks an outlier with the pattern looks good at day 10 with the Atlantic low hitting a wall and disrupting,

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to say the runs are simply sublime this morning , OK there are some differences but all in all, the theme of blocking highs at high latitude and euro low pressure looks a go-er.

I posted the meto France outlook by Fred Decker at the turn of the month which was pointing to the above and at this stage it looks an absolutely fabulous call.

Even the EC op which again looks an outlier with the pattern looks good at day 10 with the Atlantic low hitting a wall and disrupting,

 

Yes NWS it shows how good things are when an ECM op that shows trough disruption against a block to our north is considered a bit of a downgrade. Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM mean has dropped further overnight with the 850's peaking around Tuesday and Wednesday next week at around -5. Afterwards, it's a slight rise to around -2

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.a82d22e84299262c54bb17be83f7f992.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Seeing the Eastern blocking High Pressure developing more towards the North of the U.K does seem quite likely next week now on the models. 

Looks like the Met Office may very well turn out correct in the first place when it had those updates on its 16 to 30 day summary where it suggested High Pressure occurring over Northern UK around mid November.

Regarding the 00Z ECMWF, it does seem to be one of the models again with the risk of the Northern UK/Scandinavian ridge getting knocked Southwards to our East, though did managed to cut most of the High Pressure off to our North. 

I know it’s not worth thinking much about the end of its run since it will likely change (somewhat) again. 

915EDB2A-BA36-4E2F-B997-1F43FA4509BC.thumb.png.69cebc4bc293743728ae00d54b30cd5b.png

Nevertheless, using the 240 hour ECMWF chart, this is probably more of what the cold and snows fans would need to see with Low Pressure migrating further East through either Southern UK or more towards South-Eastern UK towards the Italy area. Think it was Nick Sussex that mentioned the importance of having Low Pressure around the Northern Italy area. This of which I imagine helps support blocking to our North or North-East and helps to direct deeper cold South-Westwards towards the U.K - (providing there is enough upper cold to tap into).

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GEFS 00z are rock solid bar the odd outlier of below average temps for the UK for the forseeable- 

The divergence IMHO comes at 144, i'm still of the opinion we will need some help from the Azores high - EC det detaches the emerging Azores high from the retrogressing Scandy high and attempts to bring the Atlantic through the 'door'..But even in this scenario the block manages to disrupt the Lows and they look set to disrupt post day 10..

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Compare the ecm mean for the 23rd November. First from two days ago at day 10. Second from this morning's at day 8.

EDH1-240.gif

EDH1-192.gif

Yes the colder outliers are actually gaining momentum. Even further out, the same is true. Compare the D10 EC clusters from last night - I'm looking at the heights to the east - the op run cluster has the strongest heights towards the Baltics (not very strong) - but the other clusters (31 out of 51 ensembles) have weaker heights there and therefore less chance of a Scuero setting up for any length of time - cluster 3 is positively wintry:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111412_240.

Keep an eye on cluster 3 for around D13 - now this would take things to another level of cold altogether. All boxes ticked for cold on that one - troughing east and south, heights north and west:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111412_324.

But despite my love for the clusters, I also recognise the GFS parallel seems to be doing pretty well at the moment. So let's see if these charts get anywhere near verifying!

gfs-0-192.png  gfs-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

IMO the main question if the pressure drops enough over southern Europe. This would slow down the whole pattern, the low would track NE, keeping the cold air over Europe and preventing the high from sinking. If not, the high drifts SE and Europe would end up under inversion.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just to add to Paul’s post, some chat of the Met Office, BBC forecasts etc could be okay in here as longs as your posts contains some model discussion along with it. (E.g: ‘the BBC is showing a colder outlook, which matches what the models are showing with cold Easterly winds and blocking Highs’. Just an example). 

Brill.. thankyou for that post.

I quite like the references to media outlooks in tandem with model guidance..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could this be a sign of things to come? I wonder: that's some southward jet-stream-meander, and when one considers the summertime was characterised by an equally noticeable northward buckle, blocks, ruts and extremes come to mind?

Anywho, after that rather abstract digression, the European cold pool looks better again today?

Netweather GFS Image

 

Edited by Ed Stone
colon trouble!
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.33b34a997a5df13fdd3dfed1fffd1e60.png

00z swingometers. Disappointed with the 00zs this morning. There is no denying it the ECM is poor and wouldn't deliver anything exciting in its timeframe. BUT we do have cold building to the east at least.

The OP and parallel were also pretty good but the amount of blocking seems to be less and we are left in a modestly cold airmass with cold rain on quite a few of them.

Will the 06z turn the tide once again?

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Looks like we might get a full polar trop vortex split on the 6z. At about T100, the ridge over the western CONUS is just a smidgen more amplified and that helps to pull the lower heights away from the pole and opens the gate.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 6z looks like an upgrade in the shorter term with ridging into the pole evident at T174:

image.thumb.jpg.48c4a1ac53a3de6d6f6b933d10bef2bd.jpg

Yep definitely pushing high pressure further north here at T177

C352D760-160A-4F5D-AF9C-97E5703C866A.png

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