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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Doesn't end on quite the flourish of yesterday's run, but, hey, who's complaining?

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner

No Monday blues if this occured, going to be an interesting winter ahead. Love viewing the precipitation type charts 

03A4FDFB-C9E5-4A9A-9C6F-56DC6B3A7565.png

C7CA921D-07CE-4E0D-B073-8380A3123F37.png

Edited by Weegaz
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

The models look pretty chilly, though I think this  Greenland block trend could drag on for a while... 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM Op was a mild outlier in FI

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

18z gefs mean at 276hrs, slight upgrade on the 12z, night all :).

773218DF-2682-452E-8BCF-B8DDD6E0909E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I see some members are dissapointed with the ECM but I don't think its that bad especially for the medium term with the cold pool moving westwards and trying its best to hit the UK more full on. Of course, its unlikely to be cold enough for snow but if we get enough instability and coupled warm SST's then a sunshine and convective shower is a possibility which is better than dull, grey and cold. 

Longer term, a northerly of some sorts can't be ruled out, it does seem at this moment any potant blast from a more Northerly direction could be some way off but changes from run to run could change this. 

You can't escape the fact though, it is too early and you need everything to fall into place to get a potent easterly but as others say, better than mild SW'lies and flooding set ups. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Superb post from Catacol as usual. 

Sticking with the 10 day Blocking theme: how about these charts for means? Slowly generating consensus for Greenland height rises. As both C and Tamara allude, given that the intervening easterly burst is unlikely to provide serious snowfall (early season, relatively benign uppers etc), this is really the key thing to nail down if we are to attain some “proper” winter weather out of this. Very encouraging though and certainly, irrespective of wintery outcomes, a period to analyse carefully when it comes to attaining HLBs in the future 

DB87D253-63D4-4D9B-9C25-4201F3300F79.png

5266A387-3C06-41CF-808B-09116EDF3252.png

Edit: just to reinforce my point, the lack of snowfall I was referring to wasn’t intended to dampen the excitement - as I said, the setup is heading towards an incredibly favourable one for snowfall. But this chart for E/SE england shows that despite the E’ly and the PPN next week, the snow row remains 0. The E’ly helps facilitate the westward advection of the high though so it is all part of the puzzle...

0BFFE3CC-6064-4943-A1D1-DF218C217F1A.gif

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The only people who will be wrong with regard to long range weather predictions based upon teleconnections are those making forecasts based upon them, 

It is certainly a worthwhile pursuit because obviously the weather is physics driven and eventually accuracy will improve but we have so little data that it is impossible to determine cause from effect and we have no idea if our starting state is anomalous aside from assumption.

I love the competing theories, egos aside, but the reality is what is proved to be "true" one year will fall flat on its face the next. If that were not the case people could consistently correctly predict weather patterns a month ahead, the telling thing is that people with opposing theories claim as much now.

Between facts and reality there is opinion and opinion should never be stated as fact. So long as people put forward their theories on teleconnections as theories and they are tested in the public forum that can only help progress and rather than competition there should be comradery between the various proponents because the only guarantee right now is that no one person has a handle on this.

Can't wait to find out if the pattern flattens out or remains amplified into December and thank you all who have researched this and put forward your ideas.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.4b7d6737ffff230d8d8c4468e8f524ab.png

18Z swingometer

Despite an OP run that was rather benign till the latter stages, the ensembles are still pretty good. All to play for

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Just thought I'd post this with a marvellous end to the day

Or something for you to wake up too

T+300 HRS granted but a 964mb low from the North and a block to the west.

Goodnight all or Good morning 

18112706_1418.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The ECM mean is a long way from the Op so we can probably expect something different from the 00z run.

ECH1-240.GIF?14-0EDH1-240.GIF?14-0

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A lot of very cold runs in there 

And the beeb have backtracked a little with their monthly outlook, they are suggesting a spell of easterly winds but no mention of snow , maybe not suprising...

They still expecting a return of the Atlantic earlish December with west or south west winds..

All in all the theme until the last paragraph is cool/cold..Hopefully the long term prognosis is incorrect..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
23 minutes ago, booferking said:

Huge amount of Greenland highs on 18z would say 3/4 of the runs show some signal for it mean below for 276hr.

Screenshot_20181114-232659_Chrome.jpg

yes some great looking charts within the 18z GEFS

p3.gif

gens-3-0-288.png

gens-4-1-300.png

gens-9-1-300.png

gens-9-0-324.png

tempresult_odw3.gif

gensnh-14-5-276.png

gens-15-0-384.png

gens-15-1-372.png

gensnh-17-1-204.png

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
charts from meteociel were not showing so had to save and upload
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
53 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't end on quite the flourish of yesterday's run, but, hey, who's complaining?

Netweather GFS Image

I haven't seen the precipitation  chart but could that be a front with front edge snow?

 

Turns out after further analysis be something else! Ha

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSPARANH12_384_1.png

How about this from the GFS parallel............................

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And the beeb have backtracked a little with their monthly outlook, they suggesting a spell of easterly winds but no mention of snow , maybe not suprising...

They still expecting a return of the Atlantic earlish December with west or south west winds..

I have been talking to Feb1991 a fair bit about prospects this winter. He will tell you that as far as I'm concerned, I see little sign of mobility next month. This being said, I favour a UK HP scenario predominating rather than a true high latitude block dominated month. Interestingly this fits rather well with the prognosis from Tamara and Catacol WRT a slightly flatter pattern next month.

Bear in mind that December could still return a decently below average month CET wise with this set up, owing to minimal sun strength and the fact we'd be likely to see some hard frosts and struggling day time temperatures!

January to be THE month as far as this winter is concerned (IMO) 

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

T+300 HRS granted but a 964mb low from the North and a block to the west.

Not wishing to split hairs, sorepaw1, but at 1mb increments, it shows 979. 

 viewimage.thumb.png.4386d1ef0bbc7be7696d7f9536da1845.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not wishing to split hairs, sorepaw1, but at 1mb increments, it shows 979. 

 viewimage.thumb.png.4386d1ef0bbc7be7696d7f9536da1845.png

 

?️‍♂️ I can just about squint that 

When you get to my age I have an excuse  

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