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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 18z T90 rolling with the exact same upgrades as the ICON ....

Sharper trough through Northern europe / better allignment -

LOL I'd just done that exact same comparison, GFS v ICON at T90, as you say very much in alignment, although with GFS we'll see the ramifications as it doesn't stop at T120.

Overall, I have to rate the output this evening as exceptionally positive for a substantial cold spell to develop.  Only negative ECM, we will be able to tell if that was a bad run by this time tomorrow, super positive the FV3, the cross polar high, I'll be watching this model, in its new high resolution format right to day 16, to see if it has picked something up! 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Not bitterly cold, snowy and certainly not record breaking...but at least it will be seasonal. 

gfs-0-138.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU18_144_2.png

Hmmm GFS moves everything faster then the 12z but the WAA to west Greenland is a bit weaker at the same time. Cold air still trickling into West Greenland, will this cause the block to sink? lets wait and see...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are we going to see the gfs phasing the low heights and if so, how will it play out ....

Fascinating model watching if nothing else. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

A brisk easterly set in by next Tuesday with -4 uppers covering most of the country.  Will feel pretty raw, particularly near the east coast.

gfsnh-0-138.png?18  gfsnh-1-138.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

18z is a monster.....bitter cold pouring in from East on a strong flow....winter cometh 

 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

A brisk easterly set in by next Tuesday with -4 uppers covering most of the country.  Will feel pretty raw, particularly near the east coast.

gfsnh-0-138.png?18  gfsnh-1-138.png?18

That is an upgrade on the 12z cold further north and west!!gona feel really raw!!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst the upcoming pattern may not deliver what most of us want to see in the near term, it’s a pretty splendid winter set up for snowfall and given th anomaly predicted is one we are supposed to see further through the winter, I’m chuffed to see it appear before we even reach winter proper ! 

Just hope we haven't peaked too early!

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Chart below for next Tuesday night  taken from tonights 18z .outside chance of something with a wintery mix for the South East 

 

Any rain sleet or wet snow showers that fall will be mainly light 

But under clearing skies

Black ice maybe the biggest problem for Wednesday morning rush hour. 

18112006_1418.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The cold is coming, cold pool looks bigger, possible interest away to our WSW, and a cold, fresh and lazy wind:

Netweather GFS Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

In typical gfs pub run style, the 18z is going for the never ending easterly. This run probably as unlikely as the ecm op earlier on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, blizzard81 said:

In typical gfs pub run style, the 18z is going for the never ending easterly. This run probably as unlikely as the ecm op earlier on. 

Yep long breezy easterly . ?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I know no one wants to mention it but the ecm control run for debilt is an absolute stinker tonight. Don't want to see that repeated in the morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.c26d1a9641e6856fcb30e5c2697194ac.png

The differences between the 12z (left) and 18z (right) are pretty notable and are due to the WAA being cut off from Greenland early.

Next week may have surprise snowfalls for some of the 18z comes off but we may miss the chance of really cold uppers unless there is a secondary retrogression.

Good charts for early in the season but with the potential for very cold uppers I was hoping we could get them. Probably not on this run.....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Well GFS 18z is doing things differently but end result looks similar for the UK here at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.170557abd0c816f693eb50b2b0a140d2.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.ca5a29c6f15c00819d54cc88e2549bec.jpg

Nasty vortex face in that picture, but...

Cold incoming!

I see that 

Not keen on the green lipstick though 

Looks like he's chewing an isobar.

Great 18z imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Decent enough run in the reliable, but the very coldest uppers are being swept away to the east. Really shouldn't turn our noses up at this but we've been spoilt rotten over the last few days!

gfsnh-0-198.png?18 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

More WAA into east Canada at 198h. Maybe another Greenland high coming later in this run, with a resultant northerly.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Most annoying thing is regarding 18z is mainland Europe hasn’t Cooled down enough, and ssts haven’t cooled enough. The chart for next Friday is very similar to 2010, just the uppers not matching it. Keeping the faith though, let’s hope for upgrades or something from then North/ North East a little further down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Most annoying thing is regarding 18z is mainland Europe hasn’t Cooled down enough, and ssts haven’t cooled enough. The chart for next Friday is very similar to 2010, just the uppers not matching it. Keeping the faith though, let’s hope for upgrades or something from then North/ North East a little further down the line.

the variety of solutions we are being offered just shows the actual solution is still being worked on - a few model runs yet to see the real solution appear

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