Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean has dropped down a bit further this evening compared to the 00z it's also for the bin around the 22nd & 23rd with no support

The 00z was hovering around -1 this morning

Brilliant that means it looks like the mean is  now startin to follow the op between the 19th and 22nd!!the op has been at the bottom of the pack but the mean is startin to join it!!and oh hell yeh that is one heck of an outlier towards the end!!eyes down for a smashing gfs 18z!!

[January Snowstorm]

Well the ecm is clearly an outlier which is a huge relief.

I've a feeling we could be seeing some stonking runs come tomorrow 

Worth commenting also on the short term those strong easterly's whilst not showing very cold uppers initially will give some significant windchill

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi Steve, does this mean that you give some credence to the GFS parallel/FV3 12z solution that I posted earlier as a realistic scenario?

Thanks in advance 

Yes, although the cross polar blocking isnt being picked up just yet as ECM etc not quite in range ! - that X polar block is circa -5 AO & of course rare as hens teeth- last time we got close 2010 / Mar 13

ECM debilt T2Ms look where the clustering is day 12

[Guest]

THE GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL (GSDM)

 

That was a superb post Tams @Tamara. Spot on as usual and providing some very sensible balance to some of the hype expressed by a few posters on this thread (far too early to say whether the upcoming cold spell will last for weeks on end). You came in for some very unfair criticism and Ed Berry and the GSDM have been thoroughly quoted out of context. Rather than get into this unfortunate ongoing debate on this forum over the relative merits of teleconnection science, perhaps we can let readers decide for themselves. I have been in touch with Ed Berry during this year and had some fascinating exchanges with him.  In May, he sent me a link to his YouTube video on his outstanding one hour seminar presentation on the GSDM. 

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What does GSDM stand for please?

Feb - this will answer your question in full  

I posted exclusively about this on the Teleconnections thread on two forums back on May 24th. I copy my opening paragraphs below (marginally edited to be current): 

What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation

This specialist "Teleconnections" thread was set up to examine and learn more about the main drivers and influences on the broader global weather patterns and how these drivers interact with each other and which are the more dominant ones. Some of the posts have already focused on the great importance of understanding the major role played by AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) and the torques. Several of us have discussed the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model) which was jointly developed by leading meteorological scientists Edward K Berry and Dr Klaus Weickmann while they were working at NOAA in the late 1990s and earlier years of this century. They also devised the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) as a way of plotting and measuring the amounts of relative global AAM,  FT (frictional torque) and MT (mountain torque) at different phases of the cycle. They became leaders in this specialist research which has been used to assist in understanding impacts on global weather patterns and upcoming changes up to a few weeks ahead. 

Unfortunately, they left NOAA several years ago (in 2015) and it seemed that their vitally important work had ceased with a great loss to advances in meteorological science.  We have been trying to track them down and recently found an email address for Ed Berry. I sent Ed an email and I was delighted when he replied almost immediately. He explained that Klaus Weickmann retired several years ago. Edward K. Berry (Senior Weather-Climate Scientist) continues his excellent work on the GSDM and retains his lifelong passion to develop the model and its meteorological applications further. We have exchanged a few more emails with Ed and he is very supportive of the work that we are doing on this thread. I hope that we can persuade Ed to post on here in due course. (Ed Berry should not be confused with another Ed Berry who is Dr Edwin Berry and a climatologist)

I asked Ed if he could assist us with obtaining past AAM, FT and MT data (which had been withdrawn from the NOAA Maproom archives) as well as more comprehensive current data and I explained to him that we had been in touch with Victor Gensini (Assistant Professor, Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, Northern Illinois University) who has been working  on and producing some of this missing data - several of our posts include examples of Victor's charts. Ed told me that he was in touch with Victor and they had discussed some of this work.  Victor hosted an AMS seminar recently (American Meteorology Society - Student Chapter,  College of DuPage, Chicago on 28th March, 2018) and Ed gave a one hour presentation on the GSDM (as shown in the title to this post). Ed emailed a  link to his presentation last week (May) and I have already viewed it three times, learning a little more about the GSDM each time. He gave me full permission to review it on here. Firstly, here's the link to the Research Portal entry where I placed it. It will take you to a short summary with a direct link to the full presentation.  Just click on this title:    What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? A YouTube Presentation

It is a brilliant seminar with clear charts and explanations, ending with a question and answer session. For anyone wishing to learn more about AAM, the torques, the GWO and how they interact with other major teleconnections like phases of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) then this is absolutely essential viewing. I also strongly recommend  this for more advanced viewers as well. The presentation is right up-to-date and includes the 2018 SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event and links to key issues like climate change. Much of the presentation is slanted towards the North American climate and US weather patterns but it has a global significance and includes impacts on both hemispheres. I show a small selection of the charts from Ed's presentation below to whet your appetite:  (see note below)

My full post is on page 7 of the Teleconnections thread and contains a selections of the charts from the presentation.  Here's the link to that page (just click on the chart below):

We can all learn from this presentation and I sincerely hope that some of the misunderstanding of this vital part of the science will now be alleviated. 

I will only rarely post on this thread during the busy winter period. I will be on several of the specialist threads, including the Teleconnections thread, the Arctic Sea Ice and Stats thread (where I've recently posted on Greenland and Global Glacial Ice) and Antarctica thread (where I also produced a long post) as well as on the South West regional thread (when things get interesting locally).  I shall also be very busy building up the Research Portal on the US forum (where I'm also a member) and I will also cross post on both forums where it is appropriate.  David    

Edited November 14, 2018 by Guest
check links are working and correct typos

[Seasonal Trim]

Can we save to c*ck waving and the 'sticking up for your favourite poster' to PM's. This thread has been great recently, lets not ruin it with the nonsense from the past couple of pages!

Edited November 14, 2018 by Nizzer

[jules216]

On the ECMWF deterministic output the main core of cold air reached only as far as central Baltic , but in the same time frame on the EPS the cold is as far west as Czechia and far south as eastern med. I am not going to comment on the UK area as EPS is an anomaly and main ECMWF is a value, so although EPS might show UK and IE below average, it may only need to reach 0C in 850hPa to yield slightly below average temps. More runs needed. A small EPS cluster goes for +NAO, but the average stays negative. 

Just to refer what  @Tamara mentioned earlier through GSDM synoptic and her unbiased opinion of longer term evolution. We should consider the fact that numerical models like GFS have problems with handling the AAM long term as was documented by earlier studies by Findley et al:

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis model systematically loses AAM with time. They speculated that most of the loss was due to the parameterization of gravity wave drag (GWD) in the model. However, impacts of corrected drag were often opposite expectations in regions of the drag, suggesting other sources of error.                                                                                                 

 

 

[Polar Bear]

13 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

THE GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL (GSDM)

 

That was a superb post Tams @Tamara. Spot on as usual and providing some very sensible balance to some of the hype expressed by a few posters on this thread (far too early to say whether the upcoming cold spell will last for weeks on end). You came in for some very unfair criticism and Ed Berry and the GSDM have been thoroughly quoted out of context. Rather than get into this unfortunate ongoing debate on this forum over the relative merits of teleconnection science, perhaps we can let readers decide for themselves. I have been in touch with Ed Berry during this year and had some fascinating exchanges with him.  In May, he sent me a link to his YouTube video on his outstanding one hour seminar presentation on the GSDM. 

Feb - this will answer your question in full  

I posted exclusively about this on the Teleconnections thread on two forums back on May 24th. I copy my opening paragraphs below (marginally edited to be current): 

What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation

This specialist "Teleconnections" thread was set up to examine and learn more about the main drivers and influences on the broader global weather patterns and how these drivers interact with each other and which are the more dominant ones. Some of the posts have already focused on the great importance of understanding the major role played by AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) and the torques. Several of us have discussed the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model) which was jointly developed by leading meteorological scientists Edward K Berry and Dr Klaus Weickmann while they were working at NOAA in the late 1990s and earlier years of this century. They also devised the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) as a way of plotting and measuring the amounts of relative global AAM,  FT (frictional torque) and MT (mountain torque) at different phases of the cycle. They became leaders in this specialist research which has been used to assist in understanding impacts on global weather patterns and upcoming changes up to a few weeks ahead. 

Unfortunately, they left NOAA several years ago (in 2015) and it seemed that their vitally important work had ceased with a great loss to advances in meteorological science.  We have been trying to track them down and recently found an email address for Ed Berry. I sent Ed an email and I was delighted when he replied almost immediately. He explained that Klaus Weickmann retired several years ago. Edward K. Berry (Senior Weather-Climate Scientist) continues his excellent work on the GSDM and retains his lifelong passion to develop the model and its meteorological applications further. We have exchanged a few more emails with Ed and he is very supportive of the work that we are doing on this thread. I hope that we can persuade Ed to post on here in due course. (Ed Berry should not be confused with another Ed Berry who is Dr Edwin Berry and a climatologist)

I asked Ed if he could assist us with obtaining past AAM, FT and MT data (which had been withdrawn from the NOAA Maproom archives) as well as more comprehensive current data and I explained to him that we had been in touch with Victor Gensini (Assistant Professor, Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, Northern Illinois University) who has been working  on and producing some of this missing data - several of our posts include examples of Victor's charts. Ed told me that he was in touch with Victor and they had discussed some of this work.  Victor hosted an AMS seminar recently (American Meteorology Society - Student Chapter,  College of DuPage, Chicago on 28th March, 2018) and Ed gave a one hour presentation on the GSDM (as shown in the title to this post). Ed emailed a  link to his presentation last week (May) and I have already viewed it three times, learning a little more about the GSDM each time. He gave me full permission to review it on here. Firstly, here's the link to the Research Portal entry where I placed it. it will take you to a short summary with a direct link to the full presentation.  Just click on this title:    What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation

It is a brilliant seminar with clear charts and explanations, ending with a question and answer session. For anyone wishing to learn more about AAM, the torques, the GWO and how they interact with other major teleconnections like phases of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) then this is absolutely essential viewing. I also strongly recommend  this for more advanced viewers as well. The presentation is right up-to-date and includes the 2018 SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event and links to key issues like climate change. Much of the presentation is slanted towards the North American climate and US weather patterns but it has a global significance and includes impacts on both hemispheres. I show a small selection of the charts from Ed's presentation below to whet your appetite:  (see note below)

My full post is on page 7 of the Teleconnections thread and contains a selections of the charts from the presentation.  Here's the link to that page (just click on the chart below):

We can all learn from this presentation and I sincerely hope that some of the misunderstanding of this vital part of the science will now be alleviated. 

I will only rarely post on this thread during the busy winter period. I will be on several of the specialist threads, including the Teleconnections thread, the Arctic Sea Ice and Stats thread (where I've recently posted on Greenland and Global Glacial Ice) and Antarctica thread (where I also produced a long post) as well as on the South West regional thread (when things get interesting locally).  I shall also be very busy building up the Research Portal on the US forum (where I'm also a member) and I will also cross post on both forums where it is appropriate.  David    

Great to see you on here and thank you for this. Enjoyed reading it, and will try to digest. See you soon on the SW regional. 

[Hotspur62]

Just sat down and read from p108 to last posts and fair to say it has been another eventful day in the Hunt for Cold lol!!I feel a touch of the late Nov/early Dec 2010 pattern coming on and i think after the weekend we will see a pretty consistent drop of temps day on day so this time next week think we will be looking at temps of between 4-8 degrees across the UK.I hope that BFTP is right and that we do result in the weather coming from the NE in the last few days of November as Europe will call down rapidly over next 7-10 days.That , however is a lifetime away in weather terms, so trying not to get too carried away.Another aspect cropping up on models is pressure dropping in N Italy area(thats one i learnt from Nick Sussex over the years).We are certainly in a potentially great position if cold is your like compared to past winters and with that increases the chance of snow that if it comes,will give joy to 95% of us on this forum and then everyone can send pics on the Regionals.

Enjoy the ride folks and lets hope the Models keep on showing the potential cold spell which will kick off Winter 2018-19!!

[bluearmy]

The pattern on the  extended ens (gefs/gems/eps) is broadly the same with high anomaly n Atlantic and the jet undercutting into Europe and swinging ne 

thats been a well trailed mean set up for the upcoming winter 

the detail as to how close into the uk the mean trough will get etc is unknown 

[SMU]

So 18z Is rolling to 90-

Quick Face value sees no change however more scrutiny sees more subtle upgrades-

The isoline curvature over central europe is curved 'cleaner' towards the UK & the trough is alligned further west as well

 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Frosty hollows]

31 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

THE GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL (GSDM)

 

That was a superb post Tams @Tamara. Spot on as usual and providing some very sensible balance to some of the hype expressed by a few posters on this thread (far too early to say whether the upcoming cold spell will last for weeks on end). You came in for some very unfair criticism and Ed Berry and the GSDM have been thoroughly quoted out of context. Rather than get into this unfortunate ongoing debate on this forum over the relative merits of teleconnection science, perhaps we can let readers decide for themselves. I have been in touch with Ed Berry during this year and had some fascinating exchanges with him.  In May, he sent me a link to his YouTube video on his outstanding one hour seminar presentation on the GSDM. 

Feb - this will answer your question in full  

I posted exclusively about this on the Teleconnections thread on two forums back on May 24th. I copy my opening paragraphs below (marginally edited to be current): 

What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation

This specialist "Teleconnections" thread was set up to examine and learn more about the main drivers and influences on the broader global weather patterns and how these drivers interact with each other and which are the more dominant ones. Some of the posts have already focused on the great importance of understanding the major role played by AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) and the torques. Several of us have discussed the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model) which was jointly developed by leading meteorological scientists Edward K Berry and Dr Klaus Weickmann while they were working at NOAA in the late 1990s and earlier years of this century. They also devised the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) as a way of plotting and measuring the amounts of relative global AAM,  FT (frictional torque) and MT (mountain torque) at different phases of the cycle. They became leaders in this specialist research which has been used to assist in understanding impacts on global weather patterns and upcoming changes up to a few weeks ahead. 

Unfortunately, they left NOAA several years ago (in 2015) and it seemed that their vitally important work had ceased with a great loss to advances in meteorological science.  We have been trying to track them down and recently found an email address for Ed Berry. I sent Ed an email and I was delighted when he replied almost immediately. He explained that Klaus Weickmann retired several years ago. Edward K. Berry (Senior Weather-Climate Scientist) continues his excellent work on the GSDM and retains his lifelong passion to develop the model and its meteorological applications further. We have exchanged a few more emails with Ed and he is very supportive of the work that we are doing on this thread. I hope that we can persuade Ed to post on here in due course. (Ed Berry should not be confused with another Ed Berry who is Dr Edwin Berry and a climatologist)

I asked Ed if he could assist us with obtaining past AAM, FT and MT data (which had been withdrawn from the NOAA Maproom archives) as well as more comprehensive current data and I explained to him that we had been in touch with Victor Gensini (Assistant Professor, Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, Northern Illinois University) who has been working  on and producing some of this missing data - several of our posts include examples of Victor's charts. Ed told me that he was in touch with Victor and they had discussed some of this work.  Victor hosted an AMS seminar recently (American Meteorology Society - Student Chapter,  College of DuPage, Chicago on 28th March, 2018) and Ed gave a one hour presentation on the GSDM (as shown in the title to this post). Ed emailed a  link to his presentation last week (May) and I have already viewed it three times, learning a little more about the GSDM each time. He gave me full permission to review it on here. Firstly, here's the link to the Research Portal entry where I placed it. It will take you to a short summary with a direct link to the full presentation.  Just click on this title:    What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? A YouTube Presentation

It is a brilliant seminar with clear charts and explanations, ending with a question and answer session. For anyone wishing to learn more about AAM, the torques, the GWO and how they interact with other major teleconnections like phases of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) then this is absolutely essential viewing. I also strongly recommend  this for more advanced viewers as well. The presentation is right up-to-date and includes the 2018 SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event and links to key issues like climate change. Much of the presentation is slanted towards the North American climate and US weather patterns but it has a global significance and includes impacts on both hemispheres. I show a small selection of the charts from Ed's presentation below to whet your appetite:  (see note below)

My full post is on page 7 of the Teleconnections thread and contains a selections of the charts from the presentation.  Here's the link to that page (just click on the chart below):

We can all learn from this presentation and I sincerely hope that some of the misunderstanding of this vital part of the science will now be alleviated. 

I will only rarely post on this thread during the busy winter period. I will be on several of the specialist threads, including the Teleconnections thread, the Arctic Sea Ice and Stats thread (where I've recently posted on Greenland and Global Glacial Ice) and Antarctica thread (where I also produced a long post) as well as on the South West regional thread (when things get interesting locally).  I shall also be very busy building up the Research Portal on the US forum (where I'm also a member) and I will also cross post on both forums where it is appropriate.  David    

Fabulous to see you back here, David. Your knowledge and input are always appreciated. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GEM at t240....very interesting like GFS yesterday.  Pressure drops to NW but has hints that we could get a LP dive NNW/ SSE and pressure build behind....thus a very cold snowy LP system.....again something to watch out for

 

BFTP

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So 18z Is rolling to 90-

Quick Face value sees no change however more scrutiny sees more subtle upgrades-

The isoline curvature over central europe is curved 'cleaner' towards the UK & the trough is alligned further west as well

 

Yup and lets see if in the following few frames that cold pool heads more towards the uk than to the south of us!!amazing how changes are happening so early on!!

[SMU]

Just now, shaky said:

Yup and lets see if in the following few frames that cold pool heads more towards the uk than to the south of us!!amazing how changes are happening so early on!!

This 120 is going to be pretty much spot on !!

ICON > ECM ( again ) -- Remember last years easterly !

[Paul]

Although this thread is a bit more laid back in terms of having some banter, it does still need to be at least loosely model related, and at the moment some general winter and not model related comments are sneaking through. For those, please head over to the winter thread. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/

[bluearmy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

This 120 is going to be pretty much spot on !!

ICON > ECM ( again ) -- Remember last years easterly !

I remember how bad gfs guidance turned out though we have gfsp now which may be more informative.....but icon was excellent at the outset in picking up the broad  pattern which verified 

[Mike Poole]

ICON at T120, well into the reliable and we have heights heading off to Greenland:

And, like the front end of a fish, the cold noses into the UK for the first time!

In other news JMA good at T192:

[MattStoke]

Eyes down for the pub run  ‘Hic!’.

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON at T120, well into the reliable and we have heights heading off to Greenland:

And, like the front end of a fish, the cold noses into the UK for the first time!

In other news JMA good at T192:

Worth noting the ICON performed superbly last March when the Beast(s) were being modelled days in advance 

[MattStoke]

Tiny differences on the 18z so far. Slightly better ridging of high pressure into our side of the Arctic. Cold pool over Europe slightly further west. Low in the Atlantic low moving further south eastward too.

Edited November 14, 2018 by MattStoke

[SMU]

GFS 18z T90 rolling with the exact same upgrades as the ICON ....

Sharper trough through Northern europe / better allignment -

[shaky]

Wow its dead in here lol!!pin drop silence!!calm before the storm!!crucial part of the gfs run coming up!!

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean has dropped down a bit further this evening compared to the 00z it's also for the bin around the 22nd & 23rd with no support

The 00z was hovering around -1 this morning

Balanced as ever SS, and explains easily in graph form why trusting a whole 10 day run needs to be taken in perspective with the tweaked perbs. 

I'm not always a fan of P1 or Px from eps being cherry picked but seeing the above explains the need for the entirety,  as all are just a tweak on the 1 possible right perturbation and if the mean of all tweaks disproves the op then.., well spotted SS

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 18z T90 rolling with the exact same upgrades as the ICON ....

Sharper trough through Northern europe / better allignment -

They both must be hanging about in the same pub!

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wow its dead in here lol!!pin drop silence!!calm before the storm!!crucial part of the gfs run coming up!!

Indeed! Not many people browsing the thread, which is quite a surprise. Some perhaps hiding behind sofas.

[Timmytour]

45 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GEM at t240....very interesting like GFS yesterday.  Pressure drops to NW but has hints that we could get a LP dive NNW/ SSE and pressure build behind....thus a very cold snowy LP system.....again something to watch out for

 

BFTP

I was surprised to see the potential for something this relatively a long way off get mentioned on BBC News channel  in the pre 10pm slot.