Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[MattStoke]

The outlook is blocked. Just a question of where that blocking ends up.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Mapantz
Moving on

[Optimus Prime]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

A weakening of the block and a return to Atlantic driven weather. I was blasted for saying this yesterday. Even more of a possibility today

But we're still not seeing what you mention repeatedly for today. Still a push of height rises towards Greenland and potential for an undercut of low pressure systems moving out from eastern Canada. Northern areas could do quite well out of that. 

 

[blizzard81]

Mmmm. Well that ecm run really does put the cat amongst the pigeons. Let's see where the eps take us when they update later. We shouldn't take day 9 and 10 charts at face value of course but we don't really hesitate when they show winter nirvana do we? Well, the ecm day 9 and 10 charts are, shall we say, not so easy on the eye! 

[WalsallWeather123]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

So the ecm has this nailed at day 11 on one run I don’t think so lots more changes to come 

Look at the GEFS mean. The block will collapse. It's fairly evident. Give it a few more days and the model will show it. We'll get a few chilly day with a bit of surface cold, but nothing signifcant, then the block will collapse

Edited November 14, 2018 by WalsallWeather123

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

Look at the GEFS mean. The block will collapse. It's fairly evident. Give it a few more days and the model will show it. We'll get a few chilly day with a bit of surface cold, but nothing signifcant, then the block will collapse

[Skullzrulerz]

I can't seem to quote some of the posts so I have to do it this way 

Yes the ECM is not good for the UK at the moment it's one run and all go worse or better the next 

The end of day the weather will do as it wishes even if we don't like it 

So far GFS JMA etc have been upgrades to a point 

Let's all stay friendly as I'm sure the people who are viewing this right don't want to see this argument 

 

 

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

So the ecm has this nailed at day 10 on one run I don’t think so lots more changes to come 

It’ll struggle, it only goes out to Day 10

all in all a good evenings viewing so far, I like the UKMO and GFS is mighty, ECM good enough for me considering it’s Mid November

* I see your cheeky little edit @abbie123  

Edited November 14, 2018 by karlos1983

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Lots more changes to come is only one run the block doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere in a hurry .

[booferking]

30 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I have said it first thing in the morning that a fast westwards progression of that through is not good.  And now ECMWF illustrates it well, heights poorly placed for UK cold, that really cold area of vortex in this case will be reserved for maily eastern side of continent

Exactly be careful what you wish for nice and steady wins the race everytime dont care about any cold pool next week the following week will do me fine.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

certainly no worries or concerns regarding the strength on the block / high from me 

12z pressure graphs

Kulusuk (east Greenland) 

Nuuk (west Greenland) 

Oslo  yes perhaps a slight dip but remember we are looking for the highest of the pressure to transfer from scandi > Iceland > Greenland

Reykjavik 

Puppebu (Jan Mayen in arctic) 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has moved to an easterly 

 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has moved to an easterly 

 

It’s good to see, but I’m not sure I recall one of those D7 outputs ever verify, especially when there’s been any disagreement between the models at that range.

cheers for posting though SS, I’ve lost the link

[markw2680]

The only collapse I can see is the vortex. 

There will be run to run variances some really exciting some pretty naff but it’s later next week we are looking at so lots more changes to come unless of course the block collapses

[sorepaw1]

32 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

A weakening of the block and a return to Atlantic driven weather. I was blasted for saying this yesterday. Even more of a possibility today

Your ok by me . I try to detach myself good or bad. 

I think a lot of effort goes into people's posts generally and a  thread like this is going to create interest hope and frustration. 

[SMU]

ECM mean not interested in the op superb at day 10

Edited November 14, 2018 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

Over to someone else now to describe the EPS mean D10 - D15, thanks in advance.

Edited November 14, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM mean not interested in the superb at day 10

Seriously i know ecm is so wrong after 144 hours am not worried in the slightest!!normally am a nervous reck but today i got a completely different feeling after watching the ecm implode!that easterly is gona pack a punch though beforehand!!

[SMU]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Over to someone else now to describe the EPS mean D10 - D15, thanks in advance.

expect some sub zero maximas from day 12!

[blizzard81]

Time to put that ecm op into some context. First image is yesterday's 12z ecm mean at day 10 for the 23rd November. The second is tonight's 12z ecm mean at day 9 for the same date - enjoy! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

A weakening of the block and a return to Atlantic driven weather. I was blasted for saying this yesterday. Even more of a possibility today

No the block isn’t weakening, and certainly not for Atlantic ‘DRIVEN’ weather.  If and maybe it makes inroads....It’ll just be cold with snow for many.  The propensity will be for cold domination imo, GWO etc are facilitators.

 

BFTP

Edited November 14, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tinybill]

any  one fancy  some snow!!!

[Mike Poole]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

expect some sub zero maximas from day 12!

Hi Steve, does this mean that you give some credence to the GFS parallel/FV3 12z solution that I posted earlier as a realistic scenario?

Thanks in advance 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

IMO, the block will almost certainly not collapse any time during the next twelve days or so; and, as a result, there should be plenty cold, possibly even snowy, weather to enjoy. 

That said, I've seen enough 'robust' blocks defy the odds (and repeated assertions that the GFS is always too progressive...) and collapse anyway, to be intent on keeping a beady eye on the situation - nothing is ever set in stone... I will also be keeping an eye on the potential for a loss of angular momentum, as that shouldn't be ignored, either.

In the mean time, enjoy!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM mean has dropped down a bit further this evening compared to the 00z it's also for the bin around the 22nd & 23rd with no support

The 00z was hovering around -1 this morning

[mulzy]

40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Over to someone else now to describe the EPS mean D10 - D15, thanks in advance.

Extended EPS broadly similar to this morning's set.  To coin a phrase "nothing has changed".

Cold and blocked sums it up!