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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T168 ECM

0C62A8C7-5340-44E8-A3BF-F2D053EF643D.png

Fantastic debate in here today and good energy. 

That's emphatically a great chart to wind up autumn and prelude to December. 

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

not the best way of phasing the low heights on the 12z ec op …… suspect the remainder of the run could be questionable as this phasing is very specific

Remember the old adage when it comes to getting cold/snow in the UK.

"If it can go wrong, it will"

Desperate bad luck with that phasing - let's hope it's an outlier solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well.. bugger

LOL.thumb.gif.e3d49bcac1cb13760587af8f050a5fd5.gif

After upgrades across the board ECM decides to be a party pooper and we get a Sceuro high instead!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

gfsp nh view late on ……….

:shok: gfsnh-12-360.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T168 ECM

0C62A8C7-5340-44E8-A3BF-F2D053EF643D.png

Even though the 12Z ECMWF backs Low Pressure to the South-West of the UK at 168 hours on that chart, some -5 or -6*C 850 hPa temperatures do seem to cling on over Southern UK areas, so maybe some possible wintry weather around still for some places in the South. Especially over high-ground.

92A0DFBE-CDCA-45F1-9DDD-697215F551A1.thumb.png.3a7020c7a345202ed83e1ae9dfc964ef.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well.. bugger

LOL.thumb.gif.e3d49bcac1cb13760587af8f050a5fd5.gif

After upgrades across the board ECM decides to be a party pooper and we get a Sceuro high instead!

I have said it first thing in the morning that a fast westwards progression of that through is not good.  And now ECMWF illustrates it well, heights poorly placed for UK cold, that really cold area of vortex in this case will be reserved for maily eastern side of continent

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well.. bugger

LOL.thumb.gif.e3d49bcac1cb13760587af8f050a5fd5.gif

After upgrades across the board ECM decides to be a party pooper and we get a Sceuro high instead!

thist was close to the largest eps cluster from earlier ……...the low heights to the west should traverse around the sinking upper ridge which settles across the uk and then ridges behind back up towards se greenland

EDIT: it doesn't which means it isn't following the eps cluster which i think is good news as it makes the run less feasible 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well.. bugger

LOL.thumb.gif.e3d49bcac1cb13760587af8f050a5fd5.gif

After upgrades across the board ECM decides to be a party pooper and we get a Sceuro high instead!

Isn’t that similar to what the ECM 46 day model showed on its last update? Shouldn’t be surprising that the daily model should show that at some point in this case.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Does someone have the most recent model verification stats for up to 144h period?

Or is there a free source online where one can be found?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The 216 although not what most want to see, still has a huge upper ridge slicing through the pole, the hemispheric pattern is still good, although i would like to see better wave 2 - more help from the pacific sector.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Does someone have the most recent model verification stats for up to 144h period?

Or is there a free source online where one can be found?

 

Yep, here you go for NH T144:

image.thumb.jpg.07ea343c40ed2eff95bf45f96595060a.jpg

Heres the link

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

not convinced on ecm's model run - more runs needed

and convinced that solar minimum this year will be a big player in our winter wonderland as it has been recently - GFS leading the way right now - ecm lagging way behind - ukmo fab run tonight

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Isn’t that similar to what the ECM 46 day model showed on its last update? Shouldn’t be surprising that the daily model should show that at some point in this case.

not for next week !  

there are clusters which don't bring the deep cold in next week and this is part of one of them ……..

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

not convinced on ecm's model run - more runs needed

The key is the progression between day 4 and day 6 - could the ECM be very progressive with the cold pool?  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

This is what happens when angular momentum falls 

112253046_AngMo.thumb.gif.ae694dd321d08f4c33a692a6281e3c40.gif

(kidding)

Not great from a UK perspective but still little evidence of a vortex or raging Atlantic, so good run overall just not as good for us short term.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
6 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ECH1-240.GIF?14-0

A weakening of the block and a return to Atlantic driven weather. I was blasted for saying this yesterday. Even more of a possibility today

So the ecm has this nailed at day 10 on one run I don’t think so lots more changes to come 

Edited by abbie123
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