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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The mean has stronger heights going up towards Greenland/Iceland compared with the 06z, I bet there's some incredible runs in there somewhere!

1613462821_GFSMEAN.thumb.png.5aa0c510d14d1835525f881faa4f0b67.png

Just to ground us back to reality. There's still nothing to suggest widespread, significant snowfall at the moment, it'll turn colder sure, but it'll be surface cold for the most part from the initial Easterly, it's only really in the outter reliable that things start to get interesting! Though, I suspect that will slowly make its way out of fantasy land..

Just the 1040mb over Greenland, as a mean. that's a huge anomaly. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Heres to a good ecm this evening!!firstly i want that easterly further north and west then the low in the atlantic to slide further south at 144 hours!!should then be in for a cobra run!!easier said than done!!

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
27 minutes ago, Paul said:

For those following the upcoming switch to colder weather, Nick's latest blog is well worth a read.

Colder Weather On The Way From The East Next Week, But Will It Snow?

Jo's video from earlier is also well worth a watch:

 

From that professional forecast 9c or

10 c. Next week  No snow mentioned 

Just low cloud and drizzle. 

Interesting view. 

 

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
3 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

From that professional forecast 9c or

10 c. Next week  No snow mentioned 

Just low cloud and drizzle. 

Interesting view. 

 

Bearing in mind the forecast went as far as Monday/Tuesday, no further.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The FV3 getting the cold aligned nicely towards the UK, here's the charts at T174:

image.thumb.jpg.e89c556897e97f47aa29c4d2f35302ef.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f3fd9adf9cc450afe31a05329a33f35b.jpg

Decent run again this, and if the high stays in that location, colder air still should result.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
26 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Just the 1040mb over Greenland, as a mean. that's a huge anomaly. 

careful re slp over the Greenland plateau - z500 heights are what you need to look for over Greenland.

the main anomaly generally centred around Iceland  

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So we've had some slight movement from here to there in the past 24 hours but the main background facts have actually solidified - a strong block is v likely to form somewhere close to our north, strong enough to make the "will it snow" question a very reasonable one to ask. 

As ever with the UK, getting it to snow is not straight forward even with good background signals - so I think the answer to that question will belong firmly in the D5 or less range. 

I'm thinking it's a 30-40% chance that favoured areas will see snow by D15, but no sense in saying more than that atm. 

Finally, though I don't want to tread on any mods feet, could I suggest anyone who doesn't want to get into a snow related dispute, or doesn't like a post, head to the other thread. There's a lovely atmosphere in there and plenty of wise analysis. Let's not spoil this thread with arguments. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Oh my days.....144z

Screenshot_20181114-183126_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Too early to get excited however again it could be a fairly split month with a sudden temperature change stopping it from being very mild and slapping it back down to average. All depends on whether we do actually drew in the cold over Europe or not and how long it lasts.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Cold enough for some snow in the south east as early as Tuesday on tonight’s ECM and UKMO especially with a bit of height ...

 

AC6EE539-2C06-47F9-802E-4F2E7863FAFF.png

E9AFF74E-8A97-4D09-8046-F221ABD2B9BD.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Oh my days.....

Screenshot_20181114-183126_Chrome.jpg

Synoptically, its as good as it comes, notice the very slight curve in the isobars, in mid winter with a lower 500mb - 850mb profile, it would give a dumping even further North.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, That ECM said:

I think people are ready SM and Tamara’s post and are missing the ecm deliver as  a stunning set.

68B44A4D-2289-4E53-9A24-D4796C097073.png

Heart in mouth moment mate lol . I’m looking at it rolling out but for some reason I can’t get it to update after T120

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Holy schmoley!  What on earth has the FV3 been on, is this the run of the decade?

T360:

image.thumb.jpg.aa4aafd470262d075a98ec2642f5930f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.887d7314cc12ad549d9f81ced72074ee.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I think people are reading SM and Tamara’s post and are missing the ecm deliver as  a stunning set. I think the two of you should have a pint and glass of vino and discuss, it’s like watching your mum and dad argue

68B44A4D-2289-4E53-9A24-D4796C097073.png

Brilliant!

Come on peeps lets all chill, literally I hope!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy schmoley!  What on earth has the FV3 been on, is this the run of the decade?

T360:

image.thumb.jpg.aa4aafd470262d075a98ec2642f5930f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.887d7314cc12ad549d9f81ced72074ee.jpg

There's the Daily Express' snow bomb.. my word!!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy schmoley!  What on earth has the FV3 been on, is this the run of the decade?

T360:

image.thumb.jpg.aa4aafd470262d075a98ec2642f5930f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.887d7314cc12ad549d9f81ced72074ee.jpg

Quite simply, one of the best runs we have seen in a long time!

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