Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Met4Cast]

Falling angular momentum my a*se, coldest run yet!

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its only out to 222 isnt it?  useful shortwave track anyway.

Low res begins @ T192 ?? 

Or was it upgraded to T240??

i lose track sometimes ......

 

[Met4Cast]

Theres your 2010 redux.

Scandi > Iceland > Scandi > Greenland > UK in the freezer

[Methuselah]

-10C uppers about to stonk into East Anglia...BOOM!

[Summer Sun]

GFS sending that high further west than previous runs which swings us around to more of a north to north easterly eventually

Edited November 14, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Guest Delete Me]

-15c uppers pushing S/SW into Sweden at +231 on the 12z. 

[ITSY]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Falling angular momentum my a*se, coldest run yet!

Three things to say: 

1. You're right, amazing chart. 

2. Tamara is one of our most well respected and knowledgeable posters, so I don't think we should take the p**s

3. Usually with UK weather, if something can go wrong it will go wrong, so, I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say, no jinxing is allowed here. EVER. 

Edit: 

4. Flaming heck, what a run. Stunning 

Edited November 14, 2018 by ITSY

[Summer Sun]

Snow building up rapidly for mainland and northeastern Europe. Some for the usual places in the UK ie pennines and Scotland

Edited November 14, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Three things to say: 

1. You're right, amazing chart. 

2. Tamara is one of our most well respected and knowledgeable posters, so I don't think we should Swearing AGAIN take 

3. Usually with UK weather, if something can go wrong it will go wrong so, I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say, no jinxing is allowed here. EVER. 

It was a joke, mate..

[Dennis]

What a run wooooowwwaaaa

[Mapantz]

Stick to discussing the models please folks. It is only going to get busier if things develop further, so let's make it easier for everyone!

[Dominic Carey]

5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

-15c uppers pushing S/SW into Sweden at +231 on the 12z. 

Good or bad for the uk 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

front tries to come in at the end of the run ....... BOOM almost countrywide snow   some changes from run to run (as to be expected) but none are falling into the mild / zonal category. 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[shaky]

I be honest i didnt expect that much of an improvement on the ukmo!need that cold pool on the gfs 12z at 120 hours to push further west on the next run if you are looking for an intial cold blast from the east!!

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

Good or bad for the uk 

Awful if you don't like cold weather.. 

Scandi/Europe is exactly where we want the coldest air to go (second to the UK) so that it's right there to tap into when conditions become more favourable.

Upgrades across the board this evening, lets hope the ECM doesn't turn up in a mood.

[Airedalejoe]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes the 0z was a binner this looks more like it.   The cold wall coming from the East on 12z GFS has expanded....bring it on....let’s release those shackles! 

This IS  #The winterofdisontent Coming to town to start with.  MetO and professionals will hold back, maybe they have to......but they will soon have to warn of wintry confitions not experienced for a long long time.  

 

BFTP 

We had extreme winter conditions Feb/March this year and also the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11, surely we can't exceed those spells? It seems like the frequency of severe spells in winter is increasing.

[booferking]

Interesting to see the Gem sees the singnal also to bring the high west hopefully west right into Greenland. 

Gem & Gfs side by side

Edited November 14, 2018 by booferking

[Methuselah]

Will that HP, away to the southwest, build northeast through the BIs, or will it presage a return to milder westerlies? Then again, will it even exist?

[Guest Delete Me]

12z showing snow for the SE / E / NE and Scotland at +276 and then at +372 the entire country north of the Bristol channel covered from what looks like a northerly!

 

[matt111]

5 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:

We had extreme winter conditions Feb/March this year and also the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11, surely we can't exceed those spells? It seems like the frequency of severe spells in winter is increasing.

Where were you the last few winters before this year? 

[feb1991blizzard]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Low res begins @ T192 ?? 

Or was it upgraded to T240??

i lose track sometimes ......

 

Updated now to 240.

[Met4Cast]

The mean has stronger heights going up towards Greenland/Iceland compared with the 06z, I bet there's some incredible runs in there somewhere!

Just to ground us back to reality. There's still nothing to suggest widespread, significant snowfall at the moment, it'll turn colder sure, but it'll be surface cold for the most part from the initial Easterly, it's only really in the outter reliable that things start to get interesting! Though, I suspect that will slowly make its way out of fantasy land..

[northwestsnow]

Tremendous runs again this evening.

Even the 'slayer' has had a rethink !!

Enjoy these charts folks.. dont get hung up about snow ..

[Paul]

For those following the upcoming switch to colder weather, Nick's latest blog is well worth a read.

Colder Weather On The Way From The East Next Week, But Will It Snow?

Jo's video from earlier is also well worth a watch:

 

[Derecho]

Swingometer out for 12z's. They look like a colder set then the 06z! More anticyclonic runs in there but cold ones with the cold pool nearby to our east.

I think we are seeing an increasing consensus on very cold air first arriving in Scandi and Europe instead with the UK remaining generally dry and cold for a while. Can we reap the rewards later?