Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Met office said Siberia wasn’t cold enough yet for very cold weather on their forecast yesterday ,well it seems to be cooling of rapidly in this run.Fantastic model watching !

I watched that podcast yesterday on twitter - thought it was good overall however on that bit their articulation around how cold the east was turned out very poor...

In this scenario Tapping air mass from the east is about the scoop of cold air coming south out of the arctic through Norway & Finland - In next weeks scenario the initial scoop of air isnt deeply cold - it has nothing to do with Siberia....

Edited November 14, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Methuselah]

The umpteenth run that ends with a huge pool of very cold air, away to the northeast and east. It might all go pear-shaped, I know, but what a start to meteorological winter!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Met office said Siberia wasn’t cold enough yet for very cold weather on their forecast yesterday ,well it seems to be cooling of rapidly in this run.Fantastic model watching !

Bizarre that is, they’ve had some serious cold pooling recently with that strengthening.  Quite odd.  Anyway the cold theme still approaching with varying options of progress...but heading the right way.

 

BFTP

Edited November 14, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yes, it is just the 06z FI so just for fun, but this would be a lovely November cold spell for Europe if this came off.

Snow for us, but some very serious blizzards for the Alps and the balkans in this one. This would help further down the line in intensifying possible further cold pools! 

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bizarre that is, they’ve had some serious cold pooling recently with that strengthening.  Quite odd.

 

BFTP

I think they were comparing next weeks large Scandi high to the beast and explaining the lack of really cold uppers. Anyway not to worry its the retrogression to Greenland we need to keep an eye on  

[Summer Sun]

Some pretty cold air towards months end on the 06z

[Methuselah]

45 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think they were comparing next weeks large Scandi high to the beast and explaining the lack of really cold uppers. Anyway not to worry its the retrogression to Greenland we need to keep an eye on  

Aye; I'd be surprised to see -16C uppers, this early in the season, anyhow...but a lot of folks automatically think Siberia (with added misdirection from the tabloid press?) whenever the wind comes in from the east?

Maybe the Met are just trying to inject a little calm into proceedings?

Edited November 14, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Derecho]

Swingometer for the 06z ensembles suggests the OP was on its own for saturday 26th. Not as good as previous runs. More anticyclonic members in there suggesting the Icelandic high sinks.

Maybe its a blip.... some of the runs get there a bit more slowly

Edited November 14, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters post day 10 become single - never a good sign at that range for specifics ............ I guess it means the broad mean evolution isn’t strongly disagree with by any cluster. 

There is a large cluster days 8/10 which places the block over the uk 

 Note the way the 06z op avoids persistent low anomaly’s over scandi against the gefs mean 

 

[SMU]

3 hours ago, Devonshire said:

What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?

2nd Pic shows the height anomaly over Greenland creating significant troughing into Europe ( probs GFS ) where as pic 1 holds the scandi block in situ & not releasing the high to retrograde away from Scandi - Hence to troughing

 

Because the first wave of cold is 'that' cold its no good to hang on to the Easterly for to long as we need a reload of deeper cold from the North ( Sub -10c air )

 

Hope this helps

S

[Seasonality]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

2nd Pic shows the height anomaly over Greenland creating significant troughing into Europe ( probs GFS ) where as pic 1 holds the scandi block in situ & not releasing the high to retrograde away from Scandi - Hence to troughing

 

Because the first wave of cold is 'that' cold its no good to hang on to the Easterly for to long as we need a reload of deeper cold from the North ( Sub -10c air )

 

Hope this helps

S

Hey Big Steve! What is your take on the GFS 06z evolution? 

[Purga]

The 06z GFS Op run was the coldest of the bunch towards the end compared to 00z where it was a warm outlier!

Subtle shifts in the blocking High can make all the difference to us on the ground in our tiny Island

Anyway, the general theme of a move to cold blocked is there and great fun to watch at this early stage of the season.

Let's hope this 'pre-disposition' of the atmosphere around our shores continues to develop.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Purga

[Iceaxecrampon]

FI Forum Meltdahn.

Iain

[bluearmy]

I think the gfsp looks quite credible through  to day 16 ......(taking the gefs and eps into account )

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the gfsp looks quite credible through  to day 16 ......(taking the gefs and eps into account )

Yes - agree, unfortunately though given the level of credence, a pity its not INcredible for cold and snow!

[karlos1983]

2mT’s look pretty good on the EC ENS for London.

Mean hovering around or just below 5C from around the 19th/20th with some pretty cold members in there too. Mean would probably colder if it wasn’t for the 2/3 very mild members towards the end.

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - agree, unfortunately though given the level of credence, a pity its not INcredible for cold and snow!

I think it could be a close but no cigar moment this time!!i favour the high to be more over the uk!!again i could be wrong but its just our luck!!i be happy with cold frosty nights and days!!better than mild rainy dull weather anyday!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, shaky said:

I think it could be a close but no cigar moment this time!!i favour the high to be more over the uk!!again i could be wrong but its just our luck!!i be happy with cold frosty nights and days!!better than mild rainy dull weather anyday!!

The high will get  far enough North i think, and we could still get snow down the line, i just dont see a favourable orientation and wind direction to get proper snow happening in the next 15 days and perhaps not even 20. Patience required.

[Dennis]

What an enormous coldpool over asia is growing

[Bruegelian]

So good to see the NH perspective looking more like it did in 2009-10. Remember that in Dec 2010, the Greenie high did sometimes sink, but went north again as the atmosphere remained conducive to this.  

[Methuselah]

For me, the exact positioning of HP (during the next fifteen days) is not the central issue; rather, it's that the overall pattern looks highly conducive to a continuing major European cool down...

Edited November 14, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Met4Cast]

If we hadn't seen the runs over the past few days re: Greenland highs then todays runs would still be rather exciting. 

That's a cold outlook at a time of year where the Atlantic is normally running rampant, that's a fantastic set of ensembles from the GFS. The day 10 ensemble mean isn't exactly terrible

The uppers may not be quite as cold as we'd like to see, but I think we need to be patient on that front. Lets see what the high is going to do, there's a few conflicting signals and until we know whether the high sinks, retrogresses to Greenland or sits to our North around Iceland, we're not going to know how cold it's going to be. In any event, Europe is due to cool down rapidly in the next couple of weeks, that can only be good going forward even if we don't get our slice of the pie first time around.

Here's to the 12z runs!

Edited November 14, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Seasonality]

I think the ensembles answer my question to 'Big Steve' (Just teasing Steve!). The 06z is a bit outlierish... Or at least at the bottom of the suite moving from the medium term. 

[Met4Cast]

I know the anomaly charts aren't really the best because things can change within the models and they take a while to catch up, but just look at this for a November chart

Crikey! 

[Summer Sun]

Found this from the ECM seasonal for winter

Source: https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF/status/1062678724615774209