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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

The ECM 850's mean stays around -2 from around mid next week 

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.deeb996bc7a4f80036d75661f40df647.png

Will the mean swing to the op like end of Feb and in March or will we get a meet in the middle situation  either way, it's looking cooler just how low temps may get is still to be resolved

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The first one shows a scandi ridge and the second one a scandi trough - different wavelength patterns.

Yes, I would have thought the different colours re anomalys is pretty clear 

the reasons that the maps were cut are for straight comparisons in that region and that the eps chart is restricted 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The cold pool over Europe is both cooling and expanding...potential?

Netweather GFS Image

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
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Posted
On ‎13‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 09:55, carinthian said:

Morning all. Another mild day here , current temp at 2000m is 10c. However, forecast freezing level down to 1500m by Saturday morning. Just spoke to our experts and they are surprised at the speed of the Westward propagating trough caused  by cold advection as shown by the H Res ECM chart at early as 144t. Sort of also backed up by the UKMO model at the same time that indicates a localised area of low pressure to form near to SW  Britain. Their own model does not have a cluster of results to view but indicates a rather slower advection of the colder air towards the British Isles with continued development of a  strong cell of high pressure between Southern Scandinavia and Iceland. Longer term , ridging towards the Arctic indicate that Britain may have to wait for route to cold from the NE as they also think a more meridional flow to develop . Their model will get an update later today.

C

gh500_20181113_00_144.jpg

Morning all. Just had a chat with a duty forecaster from our service team. Their model differs in the orientation of the high compared to latest UKMO run. At 120t has the high centre over Scandinavia that allows more of a backing of the flow(ENE) At 144t the surface high cell moves between Scandinavia and Iceland . A easterly component to the flow shows signs of becoming a bit more dominant into the British Isles. Longer term ridging into the Arctic still been shown that may allow a more fluid meridional set up. The outer perimeter snow model they use does show some snow( convective type) in parts of Britain (period 144-240 ) NE England favoured at 200m but could lower later in the period.  They do not dismiss the UKMO model out to 144t as they have to much respect for this but is well out of sink this morning with its own model.  Again, they express the surprise shown by ECM at its speed of the Westward Propagating trough being shown. What their own model indicates is a rather gradual change to cold but with an increased easterly element to the UK weather that's likely to becoming more dominant /prolonged.

C

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

Nice gfs run again.Just hope we don’t see a dramatic change in the Atmoshere as we head into December.

Everything just a little too early for proper snow and cold away from the Highlands I think.

Hope we see this pattern repeated in the winter months.We are long overdue a bitterly cold January.

 

This run could be going Epic I think 

Edited by SLEETY
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The cold pool over Europe is both cooling and expanding...potential?

Netweather GFS Image

Indeed Pete  quite a upgrade on the 0z  at this stage

 

 

gfsnh-1-204.png?6?6

Edited by weirpig
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Indeed Pete  quite a upgrade on the 0z  at this stage

 

 

gfsnh-1-204.png?6?6

I like this evolution, Mark: a sign of things to come?

Netweather GFS Image

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

High Pressure over Greenland much stronger on the 6z. With a N/E flow..

aya.thumb.png.2535a1c9e474832a281da73d60745ea6.pngeya.thumb.png.140f3d7a930df7b9c624a54d57f4c150.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Where is everyone cos this gfs run so far is another peach!!easterly seems to be getting colder aswell!!

At work mate... cant post as im in a clean room enviroment..

Glad 6z looks good .. looking forward to Exeters update again.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

much colder air ready to pounce in the latter stages from the NE,,another few weeks and this would have been mega !

Snow not far from the East coast on this run.

 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At work mate... cant post as im in a clean room enviroment..

Glad 6z looks good .. looking forward to Exeters update again.

Yeh been off last 2 days but back on my rounds tomorrow so trying to make the most of posting more frequently!!gfs 06z is good!!want that easterly to be further north though!!regardless its going to be a lot colder though!!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

@floodgate runs...

Cleaner/crisper clearence on cold pooling developments as we continue momentum!..

The tap it via north eastern-quad gaining run2run!!..

More proununced waa into greenland also...

Top-stuff gfs 6z..

Fully expect some serious eye openers..in regards deeper cold pooling into our overheads moving forwards!!!

gfsnh-1-252.png

gfs-0-228.png

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
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Posted

GFSOPEU06_300_2.png

That is a really impressive cold pool to our east for November, very similar to yesterdays 18z this one.

A good run but can you imagine how cold it would be if that easterly kept going?!

Anyway I think now is a good time to keep track of things, the swingometer will be making a comeback  , didn't expect it to be so early in the winter! / autumn

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Yes very cold chart by 300z...not sure how much credence the 6z and 18z runs have though

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Met office said Siberia wasn’t cold enough yet for very cold weather on their forecast yesterday ,well it seems to be cooling of rapidly in this run.Fantastic model watching !

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted

Garhering...and gaining..

Thats a deep winter -special chart.

And its late november!!!!!

gfs-1-324.png

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes very cold chart by 300z...not sure how much credence the 6z and 18z runs have though

I would have thought as good as any at that range. 

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

Certainly a cold 300hr chart.. With a N/E flow.

mmm-1.thumb.png.502ba5d3bd2753f5b47011ae4d237353.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Yes, it is just the 06z FI so just for fun, but this would be a lovely November cold spell for Europe if this came off.

tempresult_lpr0.gif

tempresult_vog5.gif

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