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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

I have the tail if someone could provide a donkey ........

seeing every cluster from every model played out across the varying output ...........

Looks like 120-144 is absolute key timeframe Blue..

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted (edited)

Looks like the UKMO latest on its own at144T.. No cold air advection on this run towards the British Isles. Interesting to see if the Met Office Forecaster makes any adjustment on the fax at 120 t based on this output.

UW144-7.gif

Edited by carinthian
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like the UKMO latest on its own at144T.. No cold air advection on this run towards the British Isles. Interesting to see if the Met Office Forecast makes any adjustment on the fax at 120 t based on this output.

UW144-7.gif

Wow!!what the hell has gone wrong there!!its completely different!!where has all the cold air gone

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like 120-144 is absolute key timeframe Blue..

Not sure NWS .... as Crewe and I mused yesterday, so many variables at play at the same time ...... still broadly headed the same way but the gfs op shows that 20% option which is a very slow burner into December cold 

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london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted
4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like the UKMO latest on its own at144T.. No cold air advection on this run towards the British Isles. Interesting to see if the Met Office Forecast makes any adjustment on the fax at 120 t based on this output.

UW144-7.gif

 

This may tie in with why the METO in their extended forecast yesterday commented on things turning unsettled from the south and west. Lot’s of options on the table and right down to the wire springs to mind. It is great though to see the potential going forward bearings in mind it’s mid November.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like the UKMO latest on its own at144T.. No cold air advection on this run towards the British Isles. Interesting to see if the Met Office Forecast makes any adjustment on the fax at 120 t based on this output.

UW144-7.gif

That’s another run away so they may not have to .........

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, london-snow said:

 

This may tie in with why the METO in their extended forecast yesterday commented on things turning unsettled from the south and west. Lot’s of options on the table and right down to the wire springs to mind. It is great though to see the potential going forward bearings in mind it’s mid November.

That’s three weeks away !!!!!!!!!

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)

Not so keen on the GFS run this morning in the latter stages but looks like much better support now towards some retrogression in the ensembles with the snow row also on the up

 

CF54F7E7-563F-4CA5-9F3C-048BE433F889.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wow!!what the hell has gone wrong there!!its completely different!!where has all the cold air gone

Not sure but at odds against the ECM. Maybe their will be a correction.  I speak to a forecaster in about an hour and they will have their own single model to view which gets updated overnight.

C

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not so keen on the GFS run this morning in the latter stages but looks like much better support now towards some retrogression in the ensembles with the snow row also on the up

 

CF54F7E7-563F-4CA5-9F3C-048BE433F889.png

T240 mean strong indications on where we go imo. Ecm backs this also imo.  The gfs op around the 26th breaks away from most of gefs.

5351DA70-A4E3-4DBB-A3A8-2B286A94203C.jpeg

Edited by That ECM
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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s another run away so they may not have to ......…

Sorry, meant forecaster and not forecast.

C

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not so keen on the GFS run this morning in the latter stages but looks like much better support now towards some retrogression in the ensembles with the snow row also on the up

 

CF54F7E7-563F-4CA5-9F3C-048BE433F889.png

Gfs will change from run to run later later stages I think we are in very good place going forward as you say with the retrogression.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Day 10 means:

EPS

EDH1-240.GIF?14-12

GEFS

gensnh-21-1-240.png

The GEFS has a stronger retrogression signal *but* the EPS seems to have moved towards it.

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Devonshire Enthusiast

Devonshire

Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The differences between the eps and gefs at day 14.5 remain obvious

9EC0FE40-BB6C-4CA0-A46F-EB6F7417B563.thumb.jpeg.4a2c3c8451125fe05460c1d97253997e.jpeg  9E5529CB-5D91-490E-A99A-472DA483374E.thumb.jpeg.36a38a6a5ab39ca18f4876de79a31f76.jpeg                               

What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
18 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?

 

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The differences between the eps and gefs at day 14.5 remain obvious

9EC0FE40-BB6C-4CA0-A46F-EB6F7417B563.thumb.jpeg.4a2c3c8451125fe05460c1d97253997e.jpeg  9E5529CB-5D91-490E-A99A-472DA483374E.thumb.jpeg.36a38a6a5ab39ca18f4876de79a31f76.jpeg                               

From what I can see through its not helped with a cut image first to me has high pressure around Scandinavia as the second one seems to have moved to Greenland ? 

As I said can't see the full images

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

 

From what I can see through its not helped with a cut image first to me has high pressure around Scandinavia as the second one seems to have moved to Greenland ? 

As I said can't see the full images

Maybe I just shouldn’t post stuff I shouldn’t be posting .......

(not directed at anyone btw)

Edited by bluearmy
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
48 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?

The first one shows a scandi ridge and the second one a scandi trough - different wavelength patterns.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted (edited)

Just as an aside, I use yr.no to view ECM output in terms of a more palatable public forecast. It didn't update following the 00z and has said there'll be no update until this evening post 12z. I've noticed this tends to happen when the ECM output is 'questionable' 

Edited by Seasonality
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

ec MEAN looks blocked and increasingly colder as we head to the last week in November...

Sceuro high to end the month? One things for sure , its just about the best time of year for a block near or to the ENE  of the Uk..

Short days = cold nights in this set up.

Edited by northwestsnow
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