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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Was just going to post that. The ensembles are phenomenal - whether the Canadian lows join, undercut or advert up the western coast of Greenland, almost all find a way to Icelandic/Greenland Blocking with the vortex displaced to the other side of the pole. That is so rare it really can’t be stated enough. Here’s the mean at 240 to prove the point. Nothing guarantees, the pub run and all, but excellent signs again. At this stage we’re trend hunting in the North Atlantic area so this, on that basis, is as good as it gets...

BACC439C-B6EB-4BB7-BC5C-5C9CCC1DFB69.png

Edit: case in point, check out the control. I mean...the western half the vortex is literally missing. As Ian brown might say...wtf

 

A080491D-083A-463F-AD4B-C47FA97731BE.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

18z GEFS 

P2 gensnh-2-1-384.png

P3 gensnh-3-1-252.png

P5 gensnh-5-1-288.png

P6 tempresult_cnd9.gif

P13 gensnh-13-1-240.png

P16 gens-16-0-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
7 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

This is a bit of a myth really because Northerlies can produce snowfall in November and the potential for a Northerly is there, especially if the Greenland high does develop....

Either way, an easterly flow which will gradually turn colder is still on the cards and its where we go after that which remains the big question.

Yeah not sure where these myths come from, admittedly I live on a northern hill but had 10cm on 27 Oct this year and 3rd Nov 2015 both from northerlies and the synoptics weren't as juicy as those showing in the models of late.

I'm just hoping it's not a repeat of 15/16 Where the November snow was only 1 of a handful after such early promise so understand people's concerns on that front.

However, the PV was stuck like a limpet to Greenland in 2015 spawning lows all winter. Now, most models show a dramatic move of the PV to our East so I for one am excited for the next few days to see the PV take a vacation which should throw up a few prizes.

Screenshot_20180913-194131_Facebook.jpg

Nov 2015

20181027_113336.jpg

Oct 2018

Screenshot_20181113-102413_Chrome.jpg

 

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Main models at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.129485f19a4a85aebcc9642aee073425.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d698cf92ee0e3f2eab03e67d95c78409.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1087f783b6534f08ccf6ab69028d2bd5.jpg

I much prefer the GFS, then UKMO over the GEM this morning.  GFS has a good strong southern arm of the jet:

image.thumb.jpg.29dc001142ecdb7462f8f0fd3c5c6f6b.jpg

Rare that I comment on the graveyard shift, but I wanted to catch the start of the cricket!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

T240, GFS has 2 lows under third following, here:

image.thumb.jpg.df824151a743da547018abc5a6c703fb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f9f0c078b09492e55792095dc321b5b4.jpg

Liking this run a lot, and that's not about short term snow flurries, it won't but about setting up the longer term synoptics.  Up top:

image.thumb.jpg.56355f4e23db2e6f85ad49332849d0c7.jpg

Pressure on the strat vortex, but that may relinquish a bit if the block does transfer to Greenland.

 

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Very solid mean 228/240

Maybe a slight shift towards the iceland block- however that offset by more cross polar blocking appearing as well now - making a more significant split/

PTB 6 looks about perfect-

Just UKMO kicking its heals...

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&amp;ech=192&amp;carte=1

 

fantasy world not bad lots of cold area heading in from Russia to over  the  pond  if it gets to us we will have to wait  and see

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

On closer inspection of synoptics development I want the slow UKMO evolution as the through that travels from east that brings the initial cold then becomes spoiler shortwave as it travels west of Ireland and we never achieve cross polar flow

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

On the 18z and 00z at around T+136 hrs and T+144 hrs there does seem to be a menacing low pressure system trying to disrupt the easterly. 

I don't think it has the energy at this stage to disrupt the easterly. 

But it's one to watch imo.

It's not something I'd like to to see to much of.

Because on the 00z the low is starting to win out at T+216hrs GFS.

Just a observation ..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Really good evolution from the FV3 this morning, here at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.2acb0b45d297f234a1d0387e17b47779.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.ad96e005fa6956d792d239ef85d075e5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.abe890da23d1f07cbb985e93b1b06cff.jpg

850 chart shows that at this time of year, to get a cold hit does require a direct hit - but the cold pools will only increase into the winter proper of course.  More weight to the southern arm of the jet, that's all to the good, and a trend from the 0z runs overall I think.

 

Edit, T240 on FV3, hmmm!

image.thumb.jpg.2ddc7a4b0d1cae5b410c6cf0aa447943.jpg

Some wedge!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Quite a difference between UKMO/GFS at 144.

GFS is again excellent , ukmo not as convincing but i feel ukmo would go on to be OK as the atlantic low will hopefully undercut therafter...

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Really good evolution from the FV3 this morning, here at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.2acb0b45d297f234a1d0387e17b47779.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.ad96e005fa6956d792d239ef85d075e5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.abe890da23d1f07cbb985e93b1b06cff.jpg

850 chart shows that at this time of year, to get a cold hit does require a direct hit - but the cold pools will only increase into the winter proper of course.  More weight to the southern arm of the jet, that's all to the good, and a trend from the 0z runs overall I think.

 

Edit, T240 on FV3, hmmm!

image.thumb.jpg.2ddc7a4b0d1cae5b410c6cf0aa447943.jpg

Some wedge!

This is what I was saying above, the slower the through travels west the better. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.3fe0894031ddf8a8689f6715977030d2.jpg

Looks similar to GFS but with a stronger high - good run so far this.

Maybe middle ground mike between GFS and UKMO . Witch is fine . 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

It’s times like this that I absolutely hate having to go to work, I love watching each run roll out frame by frame in these situations! 

Better ECM this morning, more amplified and more energy digging SE underneath the block

DDC74A6A-F803-4110-B23B-CDFC03D19FAB.thumb.png.850a1c5ce74048c13b7bda0eb6f0e7ab.png

The Scandi block & European cold pool is nailed on for me this morning. Lots of uncertainty over where the block ends up & whether we can get full retrogression to Greenland, at the moment the trend is towards more of an Iceland block, mostly surface cold rather than deep cold uppers at this stage. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

That’ll work a variance on a superb theme. 

510EAB8D-B728-42D7-BF57-72A79A2BF020.jpeg

FC40BBC9-AA86-4681-857C-C42C7B8CEF8D.jpeg

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