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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

The GFS splits the jet at 126 hrs...but my God that was knife edge stuff there. Small nuances from hereon in will have massive differences on that particular phase of the progression.

Yep. Touch and go there whether they would phase. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

I’ve looked at the run so far.....the build of HP, the WAA advection and sheer west of Ireland, the retrogressive movement....nothing marginal on the run.  Timing is going to be the only ‘question’ here....I’ve been waiting for this to start showing for some time now since mid October. 

18z to me looks superb....I prefer it to the 12z UpTo t156.....that is far more solid

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

this is my point of note...russian waa..

aiding either collape of prop up...of energising-poleward flux!!!!

edit..a greeny...and a decent cut into the pole look probable!!!!!

Screenshot_2018-11-13-22-13-21.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
Just now, Spah1 said:

Yep. Touch and go there whether they would phase. 

Yes would prefer to see the low move towards the Azores, it didn't phase but looks prone to getting sucked north. If the low is a bit stubborn then we should hope the Scandi high doesn't start dropping into Europe that is step 2. So overall we have 4 steps:

Step 1: Low dips towards the Azores / doesn't phase

Step 2: High over Scandi doesn't fall into Europe

Step 3: High becomes anchored over Greenland

Step 4: Low forms over Scandi rather then between Svalbard and Russia

Result = GFS 12Z

The 18z looks a bit scruffier so far, the low is still proving troublesome towards the westward retrogression of the high but it may fill out merely delaying the retrogression

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Yes I think we can say that this is going to be a very interesting run, GFS at T144,

 

image.thumb.jpg.310fcf1fa6e059269177513173ee6900.jpg

GFS 12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.6dd2987e816be98ac2ecd37e28845b50.jpg

Stronger undercut on 18z 

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted (edited)

Maybe all irrelevant if that low phases like on the ECM but that cold pool coming West looks better on this run -8hpa much more widespread.

Blocking looks a certainty but doesn't guarantee the UK anything as CreweCold says small things will have big impacts from here on in.Great watch none the less

Edited by seabreeze86
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

At 162 and all is looking great:

gfsnh-0-162.png?18 gfsnh-1-162.png?18

Slightly different to the 12z but variations on a theme really.  Outstanding looking charts which scream cold potential.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes would prefer to see the low move towards the Azores, it didn't phase but looks prone to getting sucked north. If the low is a bit stubborn then we should hope the Scandi high doesn't start dropping into Europe that is step 2. So overall we have 4 steps:

Step 1: Low dips towards the Azores / doesn't phase

Step 2: High over Scandi doesn't fall into Europe

Step 3: High becomes anchored over Greenland

Step 4: Low forms over Scandi rather then between Svalbard and Russia

Result = GFS 12Z

The 18z looks a bit scruffier so far, the low is still proving troublesome towards the westward retrogression of the high but it may fill out merely delaying the retrogression

18z gets past the first two steps, the next one is moving the core of the high pressure over Greenland! 18z looks doing ok so far.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

We have to be careful that the HP doesn't slip back S over us here

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

That LP off towards the SW of Greenland seemingly doesn't want to disrupt

Edited by CreweCold
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Popular Post
Posted

Too many variables !

the cold pool, the systems working around the top of the blocking, the Atlantic trough disruption and the orientation and location of the block ......

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Too many variables !

the cold pool, the systems working around the top of the blocking, the Atlantic trough disruption and the orientation and location of the block ......

 

Couldn't have said it better myself. So many fine margins and potential pitfalls to this evolution. Keeps us on our toes though!! haha

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We have to be careful that the HP doesn't slip back S over us here

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

That LP off towards the SW of Greenland seemingly doesn't want to disrupt

Aaron....no chance in hell....stonker of a run this one with solid way forward

 

BFTP

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Aaron....no chance in hell....stonker of a run this one with solid way forward

 

BFTP

Fred, this is the UK...all options are on the table 

In this instance I don't think it'll matter a jot what happens with this more immediate progression when we look at the end game. I'm relaxed for now 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

GFSOPEU18_219_1.png

After a difficult few frames to judge whether the block will sink or anchor itself to Greenland, I think this run is beginning to show its hand.

I predict a cold northerly incoming

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

GFSOPEU18_219_1.png

After a difficult few frames to judge whether the block will sink or anchor itself to Greenland, I think this run is beginning to show its hand.

I predict a cold northerly incoming

It sure teetered on the brink for a few frames! 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

228 hours..... What. A. Chart.

gfsnh-0-228.png?18  gfsnh-1-228.png?18

PV is taking a battering with bitterly cold air over Eurasia having nowhere else to go but Scandi and points south.

F6F528CC-13A9-4227-8CDC-C7ECA89AF32E.png

Edited by Ice Day
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Northerly incoming....

no where near as progressive though, deep FI on 12Z was very good for us, especially chart I posted in regionals

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

The pub run is going to deliver a monster north-easterly here. The cold coming into Scandinavia is something to behold

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