Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[craigore]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

This is a bit of a myth really because Northerlies can produce snowfall in November and the potential for a Northerly is there, especially if the Greenland high does develop. The ECM does not quite do it but high latitude blocking remains and certainly no sinker.

Also worth noting on the Northern hemisphere charts on the ECM is that this morning's run had more heights over the Arctic than this afternoon's run which goes to show how the outlook can vary from run to run and theres no reason why it can't return the other way. 

Either way, an easterly flow which will gradually turn colder is still on the cards and its where we go after that which remains the big question.

Correct. The most likely way to see nationwide snow in nov-early Dec would be from a straight Northly rather than Easterly (to early)..eventually the Easterly will produce but will take a long time given temps & SSTs..

Its going to turn  colder but how cold will depend on where the high settles.

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

The ECM 12z op and mean isn't far away tonight on the 850's

12z                                                                     00z

Pressure wise it's also much closer than this morning the op is still a bit lower than the mean but the gap is nothing like the 00z

At it's lowest this morning it was 1005mb now it's 1015mb

12z                                                                     00z

I think most models have suggested high pressure will be close by but to our North and not much in the way of retrogression towards Greenland so an continental airflow is the most likely rather than a wintry weather pattern but of course that is far from being cut and dry as of yet. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The EPS, to me, say we're going to be playing the longer game...which is fine because as GP hinted yesterday, a Greenland HP scenario was never really on the table anyway this side of early December.

YEs i have to say i was happy but stunned how this has all just suddenly unfolded.

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS - whilst obviously still good for the time of year - dont look to be playing ball re- those riduculous runs.

Scandi high anomaly looks never-ending should reap benefits eventually? Probably not in this month.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Scandi high anomaly looks never-ending should reap benefits eventually? Probably not in this month.

Thanks - does it stay like that until 360?

[That ECM]

Greetings of the new season to all “fellow net weather cold/snow nutters”  the gfs is sensational but seriously who would not have started the season with this from the ecm?  Many cold opportunities from there. We watch with interest, it’s good to be back 

[Skullzrulerz]

It be interesting to see if GFS keeps this serious cold on its next run through its a outside change maybe a middle between gfs and ecm would be more likely answer

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are you going to change your forum name based on earlier events?

No never I’m European not American the gfs was good but as a chart “that ecm” will take some beating, I just wish it had made it to t plus zero. 

Edited November 13, 2018 by That ECM

[Wilxy]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

No never I’m European not American the gfs was good but as a chart “that ecm” will take some beating, I just wish it had made it to t plus zero. 

I remember that run but can't remember what year it was?

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Greetings of the new season to all “fellow net weather cold/snow nutters”  the gfs is sensational but seriously who would not have started the season with this from the ecm?  Many cold opportunities from there. We watch with interest, it’s good to be back 

I tagged you earlier - Where were ya !!

 

Anyway welcome back- eyes down for the pub run- expecting more of the same from the GFS - can we squeeze -8c from the first wave...

[Froze were the Days]

32 minutes ago, craigore said:

Agree we are heading in the right direction but after an incredibly warm to very mild Autumn thus far it would take a near miracle for snowy Nivarna this side of Xmas..having said that small acorns.!

Well the CET shows something different than 'warm to very mild this Autumn' - near normal in fact but must admit if you live in the south east most of October was short sleeved weather so must be off-set by a colder north!...I too a bit sceptical we'll see anything wintry in the coming weeks (maybe frosty) certainly down south but the bigger picture does look encouraging for this winter and that of not being one of experiencing continuous low pressure moving sw to ne and largely being trapped in Tm air masses a good deal of the time.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, tomjwlx said:

I remember that run but can't remember what year it was?

5th December 2012 - 12z.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

5th December 2012 - 12z.

fly's by 6 years ago, unreal

[Wilxy]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

5th December 2012 - 12z.

Thanks!

[syed2878]

Ok guys lets keep our feet on the ground yes models are putting out excellent charts and it's fantastic to see such outputs this time of the year with the atlantic held back. in sted of watching every run of every out put why don't we all compare like for like as JH would say. 00z from the previous days to todays and same with 6z, 12z and 18z from gfs 00z and 12z from ukmo and ecmf.  also guys lets us not forget the 96-72hrs ecmf run from dec 2012 and how it all went tits up so lets keep it all friendly guys and good hunting. excellent gfs run this afternoon and not a bad ecmf ither.

Edited November 13, 2018 by syed2878

[Pajcov]

Could anyone explain what the difference in the background signals are please.. thanks..

[craigore]

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the CET shows something different than 'warm to very mild this Autumn' - near normal in fact but must admit if you live in the south east most of October was short sleeved weather so must be off-set by a colder north!...I too a bit sceptical we'll see anything wintry in the coming weeks (maybe frosty) certainly down south but the bigger picture does look encouraging for this winter and that of not being one of experiencing continuous low pressure moving sw to ne and largely being trapped in Tm air masses a good deal of the time.

Same.. i live in the S.E and yes its been truly barmy , probally why the southern N.Sea is still around 16c..

Will needs weeks of below average temps to get that down.

[January Snowstorm]

Charts look great in general.

I can't help but think a Greenland high followed by a Scandinavian high would have been the better outcome so early in the season. Dig the cold in over Europe and then get the Easterly...

Eyes down for the 18z....

[BlazeStorm]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Couldn’t disagree more. We are building a foundation for a cold, snowy December not looking for Nivarna in 10 days. 

More like Narnia?

Some of these charts are getting a little ridiculous now, feels like we're staring down the barrel of the gun at something quite impressive!

Will be interesting to see what GFS spits out soon...

Edited November 13, 2018 by BlazeStorm

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, Pajcov said:

Could anyone explain what the difference in the background signals are please.. thanks..

Not entirely sure, does he mean winter 09/10, or Dec 09 and Dec 10.  I would argue that the longer range drivers towards a front loaded cold winter were more like the run up to Dec 09, have said so on here much earlier in Autumn.  But the recent models is much more like the build up to Dec 10, so I'm not sure that helps, others may be able to add or correct me!! 

Must admit looking forward to the GFS pub run!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All,,, Probably one of the coldest charts since 2010 , for November ...Let the Game Begin........

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Not entirely sure, does he mean winter 09/10, or Dec 09 and Dec 10.  I would argue that the longer range drivers towards a front loaded cold winter were more like the run up to Dec 09, have said so on here much earlier in Autumn.  But the recent models is much more like the build up to Dec 10, so I'm not sure that helps, others may be able to add or correct me!! 

Must admit looking forward to the GFS pub run!

Looking forward to your icon update mate!hopefully we see an improvement up to 120 hours!!

[bluearmy]

At this stage we have the gfs op and gefs mean the most progressive towards deep cold. The ec op and gfsp less so. The highest resolution models not in such a hurry to get to where we want to be ...... just have to enjoy watching the data being munched in and spewed out every 12 hours ..........

[Ice Day]

Well if ECM charts like this are causing some angst in here, things must be looking very positive indeed!

  

Look at the state of the NH profile, there's no quick return to a raging polar vortex from there.  Also, there's a massive cool down over Scandi and to our east which may hopefully reap benefits further down the line!?

Looking forward to the pub run, it's just great having a 'cold chase' so early in the season.  Cracking stuff.

 

[mulzy]

Folks, it's 13th November - we are still more than 2 weeks away from winter proper.

The extended eps (mean) is indicating a Sceuro high scenario with only weak lowish heights to the west - the clusters will reveal more shortly.  It looks largely blocked and cold for the foreseeable.  Very good set-up leading into winter.  

Edited November 13, 2018 by mulzy