Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that Kelly Brook I see cavorting naked just outside my window?

He fights again on 7th December, i wish he'd fight Khan - Oh wait a minute thats kell brook isnt it.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

We are in good place going in to winter turning colder and dryer more seasonal don’t hang your hats on one model run .

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

@northwestsnow @feb1991blizzard also agree mate, Stop making it personal. If the two lows combine its a massive probability. And it November which is usually dominated by Atlantic driven weather

It's not a "massive probability" though is it if you take time to look at the clusters? Worst case scenario is a delay of the deep cold by 2 or 3 days before the high builds north again. It's a probability but it's a "tiny" probability. 

[mpkio2]

2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Thats a 2015 chart?

Yeah, the first chart is from November 2015. I put the recent t240 frame from ECM 12z run underneath just for comparison reasons.

[Ben Lewis]

On 03/11/2018 at 14:31, northwestsnow said:

Really?

How on earth are they seeing anything remotely wintry ?

Unless iv'e missed something, the 00z runs out as far as the eye can see look, well,a bit uneventful to say the least!!

@northwestsnow

buddy I hope you don’t mind me using your post as example. 

10 days ago = 10 days ahead 

CALM PEOPLE. Yes the ECM doesn’t match the stunning GFS.. how could it! 

Lots of changes for good or bad to come in the days ahead. 

[Mike Poole]

We know that GloSea5 made a substantial shift towards cold this month, what about CFS which had been championing a mild +NAO winter for ages? 

Sea-level pressure anomalies for the NH for December for the last 7 runs (it makes no sense to take one run out of context for this sort of model):

I think it's smelled the iced coffee!

Edited November 13, 2018 by Mike Poole

[russell k]

I agree with Crewe and others, that see this as a longer haul to cold, with the vortex so disrupted I'm happy to see these synoptics appear now, but a delay into December would be delightful!

 

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Thats a 2015 chart?

Is this a joke 

[Lauren]

Enough with the sniping. If you can't use a thread like adults, you risk losing it together. It's getting tiring repeating ourselves and removing posts.

[GeordieX9v]

Would be great if everyone could get along.

 

I thought everyone would be over the moon with what we are seeing from the models.

 

Being born in mid 90s I don't have much memorable to shout about apart from 2009, 2010 & February 2018. 

 

Bring it on!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that Kelly Brook I see cavorting naked just outside my window?

lets hope she gets to take more pictures of the snow this winter too .... 

anyway back to the "weather" models, dont think there is any need for panic/concern over the latest ECM which still shows heights building into the arctic and a few slight changes in the position of the scandi high could see it going down the GFS 12z route 

[Don]

58 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

doesn't do any harm for a few poor runs to crop up - the reality is never as extreme as the runs more than a week away ……………… clearly this is not going to be a straightforward and easy countdown to deep cold

It certainly helps keep one’s feet on the ground!  It’s times like this when model watching is stressful!

EDIT:  But great  

 

Edited November 13, 2018 by Don

[Mike Poole]

Just to keep the fun charts coming, here's the FIM9 at T216:

Possible snow for some there, maybe  marginal.  And the prize for the best Greenland high from a second division model goes to...the CMA at T240:

Ouch to the vortex!

[SLEETY]

It’s payback for all the dross looking charts  we have had going into winter for many a year ,bar the odd exception.

Lets hope it continues into Dec and beyond.

BTW where is Frosty 

 

 

[craigore]

20 minutes ago, booferking said:

If you compare the UKMO to EC i can see more energy going under better tilt to that low compared to EC all to play for what whatever way you look at it its looking very blocked next week.

Guys these charts are great but far to soon in the season. Mainland europe has barely had a frost & SSTs are around 14-15c...so where exacly is the cold layer gonna come from. Great charts if it were mid-late Jan...This is not a 2010 scenario unfortunatly..

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS - whilst obviously still good for the time of year - dont look to be playing ball re- those riduculous runs.

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

Guys these charts are great but far to soon in the season. Mainland europe has barely had a frost & SSTs are around 14-15c...so where exacly is the cold layer gonna come from. Great charts if it were mid-late Jan...This is not a 2010 scenario unfortunatly..

Couldn’t disagree more. We are building a foundation for a cold, snowy December not looking for Nivarna in 10 days. 

[craigore]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Couldn’t disagree more. We are building a foundation for a cold, snowy December not looking for Nivarna in 10 days. 

Agree we are heading in the right direction but after an incredibly warm to very mild Autumn thus far it would take a near miracle for snowy Nivarna this side of Xmas..having said that small acorns.!

[markw2680]

Can you imagine if these kind of charts actually came off we would probably be coved in white bit like this by the end of next week. Now that would be pretty quality if you ask me, even though working in the garage would be a bit nippy 

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, craigore said:

Guys these charts are great but far to soon in the season. Mainland europe has barely had a frost & SSTs are around 14-15c...so where exacly is the cold layer gonna come from. Great charts if it were mid-late Jan...This is not a 2010 scenario unfortunatly..

This is a bit of a myth really because Northerlies can produce snowfall in November and the potential for a Northerly is there, especially if the Greenland high does develop. The ECM does not quite do it but high latitude blocking remains and certainly no sinker.

Also worth noting on the Northern hemisphere charts on the ECM is that this morning's run had more heights over the Arctic than this afternoon's run which goes to show how the outlook can vary from run to run and theres no reason why it can't return the other way. 

Either way, an easterly flow which will gradually turn colder is still on the cards and its where we go after that which remains the big question.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

This is a bit of a myth really because Northerlies can produce snowfall in November and the potential for a Northerly is there, especially if the Greenland high does develop. The ECM does not quite do it but high latitude blocking remains and certainly no sinker.

Also worth noting on the Northern hemisphere charts on the ECM is that this morning's run had more heights over the Arctic than this afternoon's run which goes to show how the outlook can vary from run to run and theres no reason why it can't return the other way. 

Either way, an easterly flow which will gradually turn colder is still on the cards and its where we go after that which remains the big question.

Indeed, GS - some of us had snow in October!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM 12z op and mean isn't far away tonight on the 850's

12z                                                                     00z

Pressure wise it's also much closer than this morning the op is still a bit lower than the mean but the gap is nothing like the 00z

At it's lowest this morning it was 1005mb now it's 1015mb

12z                                                                     00z

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, craigore said:

Agree we are heading in the right direction but after an incredibly warm to very mild Autumn thus far it would take a near miracle for snowy Nivarna this side of Xmas..having said that small acorns.!

Yes, it could happen given the model output, the high latitude blocking suggested in the model output could lead a flow of continental air (easterly or northeasterly) to the UK, and in that scenario the continent could cool quickly, and we'd not be far behind.  Think Dec 2010, the fact that we may be a wee bit warmer to start with will not matter a jot if we get the right synoptics.  If...

Edited November 13, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS - whilst obviously still good for the time of year - dont look to be playing ball re- those riduculous runs.

The EPS, to me, say we're going to be playing the longer game...which is fine because as GP hinted yesterday, a Greenland HP scenario was never really on the table anyway this side of early December.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I had been looking at Nuuk for the pressure charts in Greenland (west side of Greenland) but here is the 12z for Kulusuk on the eastern side of Greenland and there is an upwards trend after the 17th November   here is Nuuk -  also a slight upward trend but more of a split, now here is Puppebu on the island of Jan Mayen in the arctic and also a trend for a rise in pressure