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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Raythan said:

Exactly , at this stage of November we are in a position to talk ‘downgrades’ with potential cold output 

Usually we are picking the crumbs off the floor from the upgrade table ! 

Quite right, EC is blocked and cold.

 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted

Another good run...a different route/perspective.

The ec..partial sink and eases of north-western retro- then looks to go for a wrap of heights into the alleyway of the russian polar region!..(for aiding)

And another few frames on...could then have flagged up an even easier route to cold air pooling straight from the siberian quadrant....

Its an increadible situ 2 be in...

When all roads really do look to lead to uk cold... . 

Takes some meds!!!

ECH1-240.gif

Screenshot_2018-11-13-18-56-23.png

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
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Posted

Ha ha I think the GFS left us with nowhere to go in terms of improvement! It does seem very progressive with the whole evolution to me. Who knows though, its on the table that's for sure

The ECM has gone for, dare I mention it on here, probably the more likely route of the two. Let's be honest though, a cracking chart for November still.

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.32f0ec4d4a7b5467135c947a564c325f.png

Somewhere in the middle of the GFS and ECM will be very welcome indeed :cold:

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
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Posted
1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

But when it shows cold its ok to be obsessed with single run? The bias is ridiculous. 

There's another thread if you don't like cold 'bias' - the clue is in the thread title.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted
2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Is a major downgrade on the GFS and yesterdays run. You'd be a fool not to see that

Anyone expecting to see the ECM match or even beat the GFS is living in la la land, quite frankly. 

The ECM is good. It's still amplified, it might be poor in terms of fast cold to the UK but if it went out further I'm certain it'd show another attempt. Even so, look at the vortex, it's in tatters. 

GFS = Amazing, incredible but probably unrealistic

ECM = Good, probably overly progressive with the Atlantic

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 12z thus far ( & last winter ) was generally overly progressive with the atlantic - Even 2/3 days ago it was flattening the high very quick only to backtrack-

At 240 its not far off the GFS just to far east - So bear in mind a 'probable' retraction west then Im not that fussed TBH...

ECM 12z was the first to really go for the beast from the east though in February. The GFS hinted at some blocking then dropped it. The ECM then showed it at T240 and then the other models gradually fell into line.

The ECM is just as likely as the GFS IMO. Cold at least but very boring. After T240 there is potential cold from the east though.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

But when it shows cold its ok to be obsessed with single run? The bias is ridiculous. 

It’s because it’s so rare to get such charts so it causes meltdown but we all no it’s unlikely to happen like that it’s just enjoying that chart for the moment. But then you no the next run will be a bit of a downer in reality and the doom n gloom merchants come out the woodwork like no tomorrow even though that run will also change lol. Anyway let’s just enjoy the rare charts for a while longer

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
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Posted

Since when has every run in the lead up to a cold spell, if it even happens, been an upgrade on the previous run. I’d presume never. Just enjoy the ride and see where it takes us. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted (edited)

ECM Op is basically where we thought were a day or two ago, needing more than one bite at the cherry.

Not quite what we wanted but far from a disaster.

I guess we will know more when we compare the Op with the ensemble mean from the mid term.

This could be one of those situations (re the possible undercut) that keeps flipping run to run.

I would love to see tomorrow's 00z output all go for it again though.

Edited by Mucka
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted

I made the mistake of looking at this thread before I looked at the ECM...

Absolutely nothing wrong with that day 10 chart going forward. Big arc of heights into the polar field and when you run the progression from 216 to 240 you can already see the jet being disrupted a long way upstream. 

It's a slower progression, granted, but I'm really not fussed about that in this instance.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Exactly , at this stage of November we are in a position to talk ‘downgrades’ with potential cold output 

Usually we are picking the crumbs off the floor from the upgrade table ! 

Well said ?? I agree, we can’t keep on having upgrade after upgrade, otherwise by December the Artic Circle would be resituated somewhere along the south coast and polar bears would be our new friends.....remember it’s the rollercoaster season....ATM we are on the up,

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
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Posted

'THAT GFS' ( well until the 18z appears after a bottle of Russian Standard) is as pornographic as an Op run gets and fitting for the Hunt for Cold thread. 

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.4632368d198cb54fbf450d1888a4d75d.png

If that verified then it would end up a Hunt to escape the cold or dig yourself out thread... remarkable, and across the ENS a fair few attempting something similar within a decent ensemble mean. It's as exciting as it gets for model watching both in trop and further up. Long live the Scandi Block causing the carnage..

.

 

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

Some posts have been removed. Don’t get personal.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

'THAT GFS' ( well until the 18z appears after a bottle of Russian Standard) is as pornographic as an Op run gets and fitting for the Hunt for Cold thread. 

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.4632368d198cb54fbf450d1888a4d75d.png

If that verified then it would end up a Hunt to escape the cold or dig yourself out thread... remarkable, and across the ENS a fair few attempting something similar within a decent ensemble mean. It's as exciting as it gets for model watching both in trop and further up. Long live the Scandi Block causing the carnage..

.

 

TBH the most important thing left today in the modelling is the EPS.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Personally I can see the block collapsing and possible return to Atlantic driven weather

That is certainly possible, i don't think its the favoured outcome short to mid term but one never knows..

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Personally I can see the block collapsing and a ossible return to Atlantic driven weathre

So can i, but i can also see it not doing that, both are possibilities.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I  did start a reply to that post but think i will refrain.

EC is cold and blocked, think i will leave it at that.

Precisely NWS; and, here's one I prepared earlier, which was also cold and blocked and with things not being in the best possible places, for an instant Snowmageddon... IMO, the future's so white, I've gotta wear shades:

GFS Archive Image

 

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Mr snowman 2018 Contributor

Mr snowman 2018

Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen
Posted

I think we can be quite certain that next week looks cold now how cold we get is open to question.There will be a lot of chopping and changing on each run so we wont have any real clarity of what's Happening until around Sunday evening or Monday so let's just sit back and see where the runs take us

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mpkio2 Aficionado

mpkio2

Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
Posted (edited)

We were expecting this to happen. ECM isn't as good as GFS, but then again, that run is possibly the best outcome we could get!

ECM, as many have said, isn't a disaster at all and there is much to like - PV in shatters, high over UK and GIN corridor trying to retrogress upwards.

I'm sure if you played the run on a few extra frames, a high would set up in GIN and we would be back in an easterly flow!

Just for a little perspective, this time a few years ago we were looking down at the bottom of the barrel....

archivesnh-2015-11-24-0-0.png

If a run like the ECM 12z came along, we all would have jumped on it, wishing it to fruition!

ECH1-240_ush3.GIF

Edited by mpkio2
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Personally I can see the block collapsing and possible return to Atlantic driven weather

Is that Kelly Brook I see cavorting naked just outside my window?

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WalsallWeather123 Enthusiast

WalsallWeather123

Posted
Posted
Just now, mpkio2 said:

We were expecting this to happen. ECM isn't as good as GFS, but then again, that run is possibly the best outcome we could get!

ECM, as many have said, isn't a disaster at all and there is much to like - PV in shatters, high over UK and GIN corridor trying to retrogress upwards.

 I'm sure if you played the run on a few extreme frames, a high would set up in GIN and we would be back in an easterly flow!

 Just for a little perspective, this time last year we were looking down at the bottom of the barrel....

archivesnh-2015-11-24-0-0.png

 If a run like the ECM 12z came along, we all would have jumped on it, wishing it to fruition!

 ECH1-240_ush3.GIF

Thats a 2015 chart?

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