Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[bluearmy]

subtle differences - will they lead to a big difference later on ????

[swilliam]

Looks similar to UKMO at 144  with merging of the two lows. I guess we will get an idea of what will happen in this scenario.

Compared to GFS

Edited November 13, 2018 by swilliam

[tight isobar]

A rotanial west arching hp-cell on the ecm 12z so far...

She'll make aim 2 greenland nonetheless!!...

[Derbyshire_snow]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

This is absolutely bonkers. Purple colors (PV equivalent) incoming from the NE, uppers widely minus 10 in the north - no "will it or won't it" on this GFS, most of the UK would go white on this run, and northern and Eastern areas would need digging out! 

We saw over 2ft of snow here in Dronfield Derbyshire in 2010 looking at that chart which is the kind of chart i have not seen since then we could need digging out again my car was buried for over a week i couldn't get anywhere.

[Wilxy]

This low is the one to keep an eye on future runs which will determine how much retrogression we get!

[Mike Poole]

I think this is still going the same way, if that low can slip under - that pointy blue bit, ECM T168

 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

This low is the one to keep an eye on future runs which will determine how much retrogression we get!

The southern tip greenland features..

Morphing down through the azores..into iberia have always been the feature points...

But as other have flagged...everything looks nicely placed for retrogression..just time placements for decipher imo !!!

Edited November 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[Tim Bland]

Cold pool has become a puddle on this run

 

[WalsallWeather123]

You can tell the ECM isn't great just by the lack of comments on the T192 and T216 lol

[Mike Poole]

Must admit, living in the south, I really like the JMA at T192:

As a more general comment, I still think the main interest is setting up a position for in 2-3 weeks time, to get a real snow event sooner would require a lot of luck with small cold pools direct hitting, wherever in the UK, apart from higher ground.  Still, I wouldn't rule it out!

Edit. Worth also posting the jet stream from this run, you can see the issue with the northern and southern arms.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

Bit of a meh ecm this evening!!still not bad though!!gota take ukmo seriously now!!would not be surprised to see gfs 18z follow the ecm and ukmo route!!

[ALL ABOARD]

I agree that things look prime for retrogression but would like to see the separation of the two lows on the initial attempt as it clears the energy from Greenland a lot quicker allowing heights to build in and not slump SE into Europe as the GFS showed earlier.

Otherwise you end up with the charts more akin to the ECM, GEM and presumably the UKMO if it went on a little further.







 

[Don]

One had to spoil the party! 

[bluearmy]

doesn't do any harm for a few poor runs to crop up - the reality is never as extreme as the runs more than a week away ……………… clearly this is not going to be a straightforward and easy countdown to deep cold

[Met4Cast]

The ECM merges the lows and as a result, there's not enough energy digging Southwards underneath the block so the high doesn't retrogress and we're sat in no mans land until eventually the block collapses into Europe

Not the best run, though perhaps a welcomed reality check after the GFS this afternoon!

[Skullzrulerz]

Ooof "That ECM" was...not good compared to the GFS earlier on

Hopefully it's not the start of the famous downgrade season but it's just one run so see where this leads

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

You can tell the ECM isn't great just by the lack of comments on the T192 and T216 lol

Nothing not to like on EC from were i'm sat so not sure what you are getting at here?

[Wilxy]

GFS 12z was exceptional, ECM gives us a reality check although i'm still loving the possibilities going forward its still a decent run and I can't wait to see what the GFS 18Z shows! 

[markw2680]

Why are some so obsessed in every single run and model? They are not all going to be the same for stuff a week away or longer lol. Come on man get a grip.

the route is going colder they all say the same that’s the important part at this point

[nick sussex]

From filet steak to economy burgers ! 

Unfortunately the ECM delivers the latter whilst the GFS is dining at a good restaurant . However the marked differences occur past day 7 and the ECM is okay in the grand scheme of things .

The GFS transition is quite clean the ECM looks rather messy but still has scope for improvement .

When you have the location of the PV lobes as shown in both outputs there’s lots of room in between to develop some interest so for the timebeing I’m very much in the glass half full camp.

A colder outlook is likely the detail will take time to nail down so I hope there’s not going to be too much deflation  in here because this ECM op run didn’t deliver the eye candy of the GFS op.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nothing not to like on EC from were i'm sat so not sure what you are getting at here?

indeed  not the same as the gfs  and off course not as cold  however its still non to shabby  another scenario that has yet to have been played out.  lets see were it sits 

[southbank]

That’s always been the “fun” in winter model watching , how the NWP deal with the spilt energy coming off the CONUS has always led to Stella runs followed by downgrades only to revert to a half way house.  How the models deal with the energy split is incredibly difficult although the general pattern may be alluded too

[Rayth]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nothing not to like on EC from were i'm sat so not sure what you are getting at here?

Exactly , at this stage of November we are in a position to talk ‘downgrades’ with potential cold output 

Usually we are picking the crumbs off the floor from the upgrade table ! 

[WalsallWeather123]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Why are some so obsessed in every single run and model? They are not all going to be the same for stuff a week away or longer lol. Come on man get a grip.

the route is going colder they all say the same that’s the important part at this point

But when it shows cold its ok to be obsessed with single run? The bias is ridiculous. 

[SMU]

ECM 12z thus far ( & last winter ) was generally overly progressive with the atlantic - Even 2/3 days ago it was flattening the high very quick only to backtrack-

At 240 its not far off the GFS just to far east - So bear in mind a 'probable' retraction west then Im not that fussed TBH...