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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nope nope dont want that especially compared to the output we have seen over the last few days!!just cool rain there and also lots more low pressure across greenland!!please please 12z gfs give us a beautty!!

To be honest its more the evolution after Shaky.  Anyone expecting anything off that cold pool may well be disapointed.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

With the vertical sheer at t90 on 12z west of Ireland.....it ‘should’ be a good run

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

To be honest its more the evolution after Shaky.  Anyone expecting anything off that cold pool may well be disapointed.

Yes defo get what your sayin but a lot could go wrong with that icon run and we could end up back with that high sinking into europe again!compared to the output for around the same time frame from gfs i think the icon is putting a little too much in the northern arm of the jet!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
52 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Does sceuro mean scandi euro high? Are we saying ec46 shows high over scandi extending south but Atlantic Air knocking on our door? 

Yeah that’s a sceuro.

second part I’ve not seen the ec46, but I’m guessing that’s what BA is suggesting, but stopped short of saying. ?‍♂️ Would need Nick thimself to clear that up from his take of the ec46..

Basically it’s a way off and a few options still remain, but *at this juncture* a significant cool down is the form horse in the mid term. D7 +. What follows is up in the air.... so to speak

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yes defo get what your sayin but a lot could go wrong with that icon run and we could end up back with that high sinking into europe again!compared to the output for around the same time frame from gfs i think the icon is putting a little too much in the northern arm of the jet!!

Or maybe don’t put so much faith in one model run.Going to be a long winter in here if people hang off every single model run

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

GFS 12z seperates the little low whereas the GEM and UKMO merge them ...

Its going to go down to the wire.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yeah that’s a sceuro.

second part I’ve not seen the ec46, but I’m guessing that’s what BA is suggesting, but stopped short of saying. ?‍♂️ Would need Nick thimself to clear that up from his take of the ec46..

Basically it’s a way off and a few options still remain, but *at this juncture* a significant cool down is the form horse in the mid term. D7 +. What follows is up in the air.... so to speak

 

The abomolys are centred Scandi/s Scandi but they drop to the south to become broadly sceuro

no chance of strong CAA based on that although 

1) it’s a mean (clusters could disagree)

2) there is no anomoly to our south so it’s continental drift and if the Atlantic approaches from the se then we have potential for undercut of cold air ahead of any precipitation 

the thing to take from this ec46 mean is that unlike the probable development of the gefs, there is a sceuro ridge rather than trough ..... 

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

+162

gfs-0-162.png?12gfs-1-162.png?12

Ooft.  Beautiful for the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ukmo now catches up with the more progressive ecm on the cold pool

at the moment I would say the ecm op is leading the way re the easterly based on this - no idea what’s going to happen with the orientation of the block or how retrogressive it is or if the Azores ridge helps out ..... we are so far from knowing how this plays out mid week onwards .......

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

By 186 we see some lovely WAA heading up to greenland...hopefully this leads to some retrogression of the HP and that siberian PV lobe drops in behind.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the retrogression again - look at the ride about to be thrown into Greenland. Holy grail run coming up.

 gfsnh-0-186_gfc0.png

Heading the way of surpassing..both 00z/6z atm....

Retro shaping-nicely!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I spy with my little eye (if I squint!)...a kink in the isobars. Snow for the SE?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Gfs 12z looks unbelievable so far!!destination greenland!!look at that high!!

Have you got any charts please 

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