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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

 "Similar conditions will probably continue into the last week of November although it could become more unsettled from the west or south"

Considering what we are seeing how can the MO extended see 'unsettled from the West'?

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Just now, bluearmy said:

How long have you got ........

lol that many eh

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 "Similar conditions will probably continue into the last week of November although it could become more unsettled from the west or south"

Considering what we are seeing how can the MO extended see 'unsettled from the West'?

Ec46 reverting to Sceuro high weeks 3/4

plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet before it becomes ice !

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Guys what are your thoughts on this one:

850temp_20181113_06_384.jpg?

My thoughts are that I'm under the big purple blob of frigid air headed west, so I'd be very happy with that for end of November. But also that it is far FI so I'm taking it with a gritter load of salt.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Here's my take on it...

image.thumb.png.8037d177c9ce54226eadd1d49839b4d9.png

Wait... Narnia is Finland. I thought Santa lived in Finland, not Aslan!

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 reverting to Sceuro high weeks 3/4

plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet before it becomes ice !

LOL ec46... now wheres that seaweed.on a serious note a sceuro high will likely produce some pretty cold conditions..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 reverting to Sceuro high weeks 3/4

plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet before it becomes ice !

This is a bit of a concern but the ec46 can flip/mislead with alarming regularity. The 06Z was fantastic across the piste, building on the 00z suite. The ECM op was a cold outlier though so expect a slight retraction from what we saw this morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Should the HPs remain where they look like being, or thereabouts, continental Europe could be one giant cold pool, come mid-December?:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL ec46... now wheres that seaweed.on a serious note a sceuro high will likely produce some pretty cold conditions..

weeks 3 and 4 aren't usually so bad - and the sceuro high does bring cold surface conditions to s uk for that period 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
16 minutes ago, ITSY said:

This is a bit of a concern but the ec46 can flip/mislead with alarming regularity. The 06Z was fantastic across the piste, building on the 00z suite. The ECM op was a cold outlier though so expect a slight retraction from what we saw this morning. 

last Thursdays mid atlantic ridge was the 'odd' run …………… or maybe not ………………………..  i assume the ens mean is potentially misleading in any case and the clusters will be used by exeter

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Should the HPs remain where they look like being, or thereabouts, continental Europe could be one giant cold pool, come mid-December?:cold:

I'll drink to that...

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
1 hour ago, c00ps said:

Although the models look good at the moment is anyone able to explain how it might not go the way is being forecasted. What likely scenarios might occur from where we are now that means that cold and possible snow might not happen?

The earliest potential difference would be at +72h:

gfsnh-0-84.png?6gfsnh-0-96.png?6

If the energy from that LP system doesn't split to send some heading SE (as happens by +96 in the second image), the burgeoning high would sink somewhat.  The longwave pattern means the end result would be similar, just likely with a HP centred further south and thus the cold pool not reaching our shores.  There are several moments throughout the evolution where slight differences such as these can create starkly different end results in terms of our locale.  

Don't let this detract from what is wonderful model output for this time of the year though - heck, it's enough to bring me out of my summer slumber of model watching abstinence! 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Does sceuro mean scandi euro high? Are we saying ec46 shows high over scandi extending south but Atlantic Air knocking on our door? 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Interesting runs and comments.

They say get the cold in and the rest will follow.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
2 hours ago, Spah1 said:

 "Similar conditions will probably continue into the last week of November although it could become more unsettled from the west or south"

Considering what we are seeing how can the MO extended see 'unsettled from the West'?

Note that the meto outlook says could turn unsettled from the south or west not will turn more unsettled from South or west.  Also they will never plump for a wintry outlook in the 15-30 day without their decider models showing at least 80 percent chance as in November 2010.

When they are not sure they will essentially plump for describing the general climatology for the time of year or snow on northern hills etc.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, turkishfella said:

Guys what are your thoughts on this one:

850temp_20181113_06_384.jpg?

It’s the type of thing I have envisaged so for me......plausible....not definite but very much a card that can be played

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
17 minutes ago, weirpig said:

First 12z  i give you the Icon 

iconnh-0-180.png?13-12

Nope nope dont want that especially compared to the output we have seen over the last few days!!just cool rain there and also lots more low pressure across greenland!!please please 12z gfs give us a beautty!!

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