Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Methuselah]

Still unfolding nicely:

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm high needs to be further north maybe!!in that sense ecm was perfect!!still beggars cant be choosers i guess!!

But at this lead time shaky  that cold pool could be anywhere.  A little like pin the tail on the donkey  signs are  good  and now on the Gfs  height rises towards greenland.    Think the initial easterly anyway could well just be the starter

Edited November 13, 2018 by weirpig

[Nick F]

Think we need to wait until the block potentially drifts over Iceland/east Greenland to then tap in to deep cold direct from the NE, the cold pool edging west over continental Europe under the block by then over Scandi early next week will probably be too 'mixed out' at low to mid-levels by the time it reaches NW Europe to bring anything more than a chilly breeze and low cloud with drizzle to eastern coasts.

[nick sussex]

OMG that block looks great on the GFS 06  hrs run!

Very exciting to see these types of outputs . Time to put the Christmas decorations up! 

[tight isobar]

Another peachy banger here..

Everything aligned great..with prop up lp sigs...and height formats placed nigh-on perfect...

Eyes bear north-east for pooling spillage...

[ICE COLD]

GFS T216 go on son you can do it . 

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we need to wait until the block potentially drifts over Iceland/east Greenland to then tap in to deep cold direct from the NE, the cold pool edging west over continental Europe under the block by then over Scandi early next week will probably be too 'mixed out' at low to mid-levels by the time it reaches NW Europe to bring anything more than a chilly breeze and low cloud with drizzle to eastern coasts.

Yes, classic case of "if only it was a month later!". Great synoptics but the proper cold simply isn't there yet.

[bluearmy]

What a day for the Icelandic site to fail to update .........

[tight isobar]

Mass cold pooling...

Direction..and placements prime...

'Incoming'...1 would think !!!

Edit;..eventually!

Edited November 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we need to wait until the block potentially drifts over Iceland/east Greenland to then tap in to deep cold direct from the NE, the cold pool edging west over continental Europe under the block by then over Scandi early next week will probably be too 'mixed out' at low to mid-levels by the time it reaches NW Europe to bring anything more than a chilly breeze and low cloud with drizzle to eastern coasts.

Yes, this chart from the 0z run is what i am looking to further ahead, that trigger low between Iceland and Greenland would (if it behaved itself) be the key to unlock a stonking big Norh Easterly with -12 uppers screaming towards us.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yes, classic case of "if only it was a month later!". Great synoptics but the proper cold simply isn't there yet.

This cold pool has come with the onset of the colder air into Europe - at this time of year it would be unusual for the near continent to be sub zero ??

By the time we get towards the back end of the month would expect e Europe to be pretty frigid and possibly further west depending on the solution  we see verifying 

a little patience required but hopefully not much .....  things are accelerating a bit already !!

 

[Derecho]

Looks as though the high fails to anchor itself to Greenland on this run which is what we need if we want to see the really cold uppers. Everything that happens in the first 7 days is perfect however and would give us a decent chance of building a seriously strong Greenland high.

Lots of details to resolve still but the positive thing this morning is that the low to the South of Greenland is going south underneath the block. That is the first big step.

[Paul_1978]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Another peachy banger here..

Everything aligned great..with prop up lp sigs...and height formats placed nigh-on perfect...

Eyes bear north-east for pooling spillage...

"North-east cold pooling spillage".......... I like it.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks as though the high fails to anchor itself to Greenland on this run which is what we need if we want to see the really cold uppers. Everything that happens in the first 7 days is perfect however and would give us a decent chance of building a seriously strong Greenland high.

Lots of details to resolve still but the positive thing this morning is that the low to the South of Greenland is going south underneath the block. That is the first big step.

Here comes the suckup at 276 though.

[sorepaw1]

Next Thursday the high pressure tightens its isobars leaving us with a very cold raw windy day and the days after 

If snow was to fall things would certainly be interesting ..

[geordiekev]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Another peachy banger here..

Everything aligned great..with prop up lp sigs...and height formats placed nigh-on perfect...

Eyes bear north-east for pooling spillage...

Can't believe the buzz on here so early in the season. Having been spoiled by a 10cm surprise fall in October, 2018 is defo trying to write itself in stone as a stonking year.

What's surprising is how most models are showing the vortex seep it's way over to the Eurasian side of the globe so early on, something of a rarity which should provide a winter of interest to top the cherry of 2018. It's good to be back

[weirpig]

Whatever this type of setup bring us.  Its always nice to see when the Pv is shown to be over our side of the globe  and not anchored over greenland. 

[ICE COLD]

Here it comes 

[Stationary Front]

At 384 nice to see the vortex to the right of us rather than to the left

at 348

Edited November 13, 2018 by Stationary Front

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the suckup at 276 though.

Yup it may just merely be delayed on this run because the Icelandic high in the middle time range is so strong and covers such a wide span. Its not often you see an 1050mb+ high in that region lol. Anyway I'm pretty happy with the output this morning.

The jet has been so so weak this month. Even when we have had the mild weather over the past two weeks, its not because of the typical zonal pattern, its because there was nothing to shift the low stuck to our west. Encouraging signs

[Methuselah]

Not on the epic scale of the 18Z (how could it be?) but something akin to 2010 is looking ever more likely:

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Another mild day here , current temp at 2000m is 10c. However, forecast freezing level down to 1500m by Saturday morning. Just spoke to our experts and they are surprised at the speed of the Westward propagating trough caused  by cold advection as shown by the H Res ECM chart at early as 144t. Sort of also backed up by the UKMO model at the same time that indicates a localised area of low pressure to form near to SW  Britain. Their own model does not have a cluster of results to view but indicates a rather slower advection of the colder air towards the British Isles with continued development of a  strong cell of high pressure between Southern Scandinavia and Iceland. Longer term , ridging towards the Arctic indicate that Britain may have to wait for route to cold from the NE as they also think a more meridional flow to develop . Their model will get an update later today.

C

Not very often you get a chart like this in November. Basically, showing the sinking of the Arctic Front as the flow becomes more meridional ( see above post ) If it turns out correct, well done to Fred for his NEly prediction of a front loaded winter. Extreme cold in the making on this run. Will get an update from our experts when they get their results rom their own single model. Wow.

C

Edited November 13, 2018 by carinthian

[northwestsnow]

Old skool synoptics on show today..

Eagerly awaiting Exeters update.. hopeful of the words cold,frost,fog being prominent..

Not overly fussed about snow at this early stage..

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters updated 

steady as she goes - up to day 10, no one cluster seems large enough to discount any solution - though the non high lat blocking one is notable by its  low percentage ......

 

[SMU]

GFS Mean 264    

Mega Greenland block