Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[ICE COLD]

This place is gonna be buzzing when everyone wakes up and sees these charts . 

[Seasonal Trim]

I need to pinch myself this morning. Surely we're not going to get a 2010 repeat!? This is too good to be true at the moment!

Edited November 13, 2018 by Nizzer

[Seasonality]

I'll take this day 10 please ECM. 

[Man With Beard]

10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Needing a even bigger upgrade to see a proper snow event - not impossible but a bit of an ask. 

Upgrade delivered on 00Z ECM, but still no whiteout - Much larger areas of the UK now not getting above 4C by next Wednesday, and a rain/snow mix at times even at lower levels for some (not all) 

But the next stage at T240 looks even tastier! 

 

Edited November 13, 2018 by Man With Beard

[James Gold]

Those ensembles look like they have far less scatter now at the end of the timeframe than a lot of runs recently, looking good at the moment 

[Tim Bland]

Some snow as early as this time next week on ECM !

 

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some snow as early as this time next week on ECM !

 

Caution urged! These snow charts last year seemed to pick up on way more than what actually fell from the sky. Much more reliable in weather.us to check out the "significant weather" charts, doesn't give totals but proved a much more reliable indicator of whether snow is actually likely - and at the moment they say possible but probably not of the laying sort. 

[bluearmy]

that ec op showing why, especially with high sst’s around at this time of year, a griceland or Iceland block is more likely to bring winter than a greeny block ...... we can wait for the greeny block until once the cold and snow has arrived .......

[West is Best]

G'day all and how nice to be back for the winter sesh. 

I say! This reminds me a little of November 1985. We had a glorious Indian summer and then, wham, a Beast from the East hit the UK during November, presaging a bitterly cold second half of winter: February 1986 remains the coldest month I can ever recall: the CET was -1.1C.

 

Anyway, we are a long way from such things but this could be a distinctly bitter spell.

Edited November 13, 2018 by West is Best

[cyclonic happiness]

Met check obviously thinks we're in for something special and into december too   (yes I know lol!)

[markw2680]

Well this is very good news as normally the next day there’s usually some kind of downgrade (hate that word) I’m a firm believer of getting it cold first before looking for snow etc, at least when it’s cold there’s a decent chance. Just hope the really good charts that tend to be around day 10 count down to 7 and 5 and so on.

anyway bring on winter 2018/19

[Winterfun]

12 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Met check obviously thinks we're in for something special and into december too   (yes I know lol!)

Morning guys been lurking on here for years but never post I can’t believe what I’m seeing at the moment can it be true ? Think the mo will be changing there forecast soon 

[Ladyofthestorm]

The GFS 0z is beginning to sniff something very special towards the end of the runs.  Interesting times ahead for December.  

 

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Caution urged! These snow charts last year seemed to pick up on way more than what actually fell from the sky. Much more reliable in weather.us to check out the "significant weather" charts, doesn't give totals but proved a much more reliable indicator of whether snow is actually likely - and at the moment they say possible but probably not of the laying sort. 

Yes, I’ve said before that these charts indicate the amount of snow that falls and then accumulated everything. So In marginal situations the depth is very inaccurate. Over the last few years I’ve found it fairly accurate (when used at short range) at forecasting snow fall. 

[Rayth]

If the models keep going which such signals then I’ll have to bring back @Bring Back1962-63 , to give us some tips on how to survive such a winter akin to his profile name  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

28 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Met check obviously thinks we're in for something special and into december too   (yes I know lol!)

Oh lord....no no no.....metcheck.....a Deathnail!,

I’m gonna stay very reserved at the moment....model watching experience has given me more downs than ups and we’ve rocketed to nirvana....which makes my nerves jangle.

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

00z ECM 850's on the London op peak with a low of -6 on the 20th whilst the ens stays a bit 'higher' at around -2

 

[Summer Sun]

London 00z ECM ens also shows the pressure to be much higher than shown on the op

Whilst the op has pressure at around 1005mb the ens has it much higher at around 1018mb

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00z ECM 850's on the London op peak with a low of -6 on the 20th whilst the ens stays a bit 'higher' at around -2

 

 

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

London 00z ECM ens also shows the pressure to be much higher than shown on the op

Whilst the op has pressure at around 1005mb the ens has it much higher at around 1018mb

I remember you posting these charts before the beast in feb/mar and it took a while for the ens to catch up and spot the cold spell . Are the ops leading the way again ? 

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Some snow as early as this time next week on ECM !

 

Ah it's that time of year to say this until I'm blue in the face...Those "EC snow charts" are in no way representative of what the EC is actually showing. Temps and dew points both above freezing on that timeframe, it would be a load of cold rain. Whoever came up with the algorithm for those charts was clearly hunting for clicks, they were atrocious last winter.

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

 

I remember you posting these charts before the beast in feb/mar and it took a while for the ens to catch up and spot the cold spell . Are the ops leading the way again ? 

Another few runs like this morning's ECM op and you'd have to favour that. Over to the 12z now to see if it maintains it or not

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Nick L said:

Ah it's that time of year to say this until I'm blue in the face...Those "EC snow charts" are in no way representative of what the EC is actually showing. Temps and dew points both above freezing on that timeframe, it would be a load of cold rain. Whoever came up with the algorithm for those charts was clearly hunting for clicks, they were atrocious last winter.

I partly agree (see above) but for snow “falling” I found it fairly accurate last season and the season before.  With uppers of -6 and a dry cold easterly feed from the continent with a dew point 0 - 1c I don’t see an issue with wet snow falling 

[-uksnow-]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Ah it's that time of year to say this until I'm blue in the face...Those "EC snow charts" are in no way representative of what the EC is actually showing. Temps and dew points both above freezing on that timeframe, it would be a load of cold rain. Whoever came up with the algorithm for those charts was clearly hunting for clicks, they were atrocious last winter.

Perhaps for the UK, yes, but to be fair they were extremely accurate for snow predictions here in Oslo.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I partly agree (see above) but for snow “falling” I found it fairly accurate last season and the season before.  With uppers of -6 and a dry cold easterly feed from the continent with a dew point 0 - 1c I don’t see an issue with wet snow falling 

But the chart says "snow depth", if it was "snow falling" then fair enough! 

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I partly agree (see above) but for snow “falling” I found it fairly accurate last season and the season before.  With uppers of -6 and a dry cold easterly feed from the continent with a dew point 0 - 1c I don’t see an issue with wet snow falling 

Yeh i really should not see an issue with snow FALLING especially with winds coming in from a cold continent and therefore dew points a lot lower!!settling however is a different matter!!