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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The jma 10hpa at 264

JN264-5.thumb.GIF.543200fae4a103dfc2f55a207db2982a.GIF

and the mean for the same time,not bad.

gensnh-27-1-264.thumb.png.af47bac8a1853532e7155ef5da70ddc6.png

Good to see you back with us @nick sussex:oldsmile:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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JBMWeatherForever Aficionado

JBMWeatherForever

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
Posted

Increasingly exciting charts seem to be heralding the start of another spell of classic weather. Looking increasingly like 2018 has plenty more excitement in store for us. It's been a great year for weather enthusiasts with beasts from the east, followed by an amazing summer. Things now look like turning cold and then very cold. 

 

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

First out of the traps is the ICON-

Seems to be an upgrade in terms of pressure placement and jet distribution over the 12z from yesterday

iconnh-0-144.png?13-00

As an aside, I've been quite struck by just how much cold upper air there is around the NH for the time of year. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Lovely cold GFS 00z. Its going to be a real autumn treat for Europe if this comes off with some good snowfalls too. Wouldn't be any worries for the UK with temperatures of winds of the continent either. 

tempresult_isw4.gif

tempresult_zzk4.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

stonking GEFS, loads of great ones so no need to post 1 - whitney we have lift off.

Absolutely, ukmo 144 slightly different to GFS though, not sure how it will effect the progression..

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted (edited)

Morning - 

More & more attention now being focussed on a GH retrograde -

A couple of runs now actually trumping 2010-!! 

Heres the outright winner ! PTB 11

30CFB08C-4F0F-400D-9F65-3C290954EB08.thumb.png.4d9dffd8997c19f7b50eb4f15c9ca23f.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning - 

More & more attention now being focussed on a GH retrograde -

A couple of runs now actually trumping 2010-!! 

Heres the outright winner ! PTB 11

30CFB08C-4F0F-400D-9F65-3C290954EB08.thumb.png.4d9dffd8997c19f7b50eb4f15c9ca23f.png

It's to early for all this Weather porn

Keep it coming lol... ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

ECM gets the continental cold pool closer to us at an earlier timeframe...

ECH1-144.GIF?13-12

The next frames look like they'll be interesting...

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning - 

More & more attention now being focussed on a GH retrograde -

A couple of runs now actually trumping 2010-!! 

Heres the outright winner ! PTB 11

30CFB08C-4F0F-400D-9F65-3C290954EB08.thumb.png.4d9dffd8997c19f7b50eb4f15c9ca23f.png

Yes, that run is quite insane. Heavy snow showers pushing SW on a bitter NE'ly. What's not to like there?!

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM gets the continental cold pool closer to us at an earlier timeframe...

ECH1-144.GIF?13-12

The next frames look like they'll be interesting...

Beaitiful chart!!you would think that cold air to the east is destined for us but i bet it goes slightly wrong lol at 168 hours!!cant believe the amount of blocking i am seeing!!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Beaitiful chart!!you would think that cold air to the east is destined for us but i bet it goes slightly wrong lol at 168 hours!!cant believe the amount of blocking i am seeing!!

It reminds me of when we started seeing all those blocking charts appearing in the models in November 2010...

Here is 192 hrs...that is some block

ECH1-192.GIF?13-12

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Everything heading 1-way this morning....

Straight into winter!!.

Ec..gonna be the pick of the bunch here !!!..

ECH1-192.gif

MT8_London_ens (3).png

Screenshot_2018-11-13-06-43-12.png

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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted

Anything that dares to rear it’s head in the Atlantic is being sheared and cannibalized ! 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

This block reminds me of the Aleutian high we have seen the last few years which seemed an omnipresent feature. Is the fact this is no longer the case helping us here?

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Takes aim...!!.

Given alignment and focus -deep pooling has our name all over it..

Great stuff!!!

Screenshot_2018-11-13-06-50-37.png

ECH0-216.gif

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

Someone post day 9 please my one won’t load

Edited by ICE COLD
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

Blimey ...........

ec op has been out with the pub run aswell ........

raw ec data from that run doesn’t bring any snowfall away from the highest hills in the south ....

 dp’s around 3 c with the upper trough ....... that could still change but you get the picture 

Edited by bluearmy
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted (edited)

This morning's ECM run highlights the difference between true blocking and the half assed attempts we've had thrown at us in recent years (which I have bemoaned on many occasion). When I see the 'real deal' dangled infront of me, I get a little bit giddy. People may accuse me of being the 'grinch' of NW, but this reminds us why.

Edited by CreweCold
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