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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Looks like a pretty even split whether the Northern arm or Southern arm of the jet will drive the pattern through the mid term.

If they resolve and go for the undercut tomorrow we could even see cold charts appearing end of the ECM run.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Night all...I'm off to have some snowmares!

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This could all happen quicker than we expect, GEFS P1 at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.a9167c934d33795d0117d13100ba0a0d.jpg

 

Anyone know what the dew points are like on the gfs from 144 hours onwards!!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone know what the dew points are like on the gfs from 144 hours onwards!!

Around +2 for central Britain, dropping to around zero or just below by 192

18111818_1218.gif18112018_1218.gif

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

The most important chart of the night for me. Overwhelming support in ensembles for retrogression towards n Atlantic, Iceland and Greenland. Most via the UK (as evident here) and a few rougue ones altogether, but a superb signature at this range. (Note, not t+384. Things are moving forward). 

F354F90E-76E0-4C84-8EA7-19BB987CB346.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, ITSY said:

The most important chart of the night for me. Overwhelming support in ensembles for retrogression towards n Atlantic, Iceland and Greenland. Most via the UK (as evident here) and a few rougue ones altogether, but a superb signature at this range. (Note, not t+384. Things are moving forward). 

F354F90E-76E0-4C84-8EA7-19BB987CB346.png

I love the 384 mean on the 12z, got a feeling this 18z 384 wont quite match it though.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I love the 384 mean on the 12z, got a feeling this 18z 384 wont quite match it though.

More 'sinker' in the latter stages of this GEFS suite Feb. 

Let's hope that is reversed with the 0z suite.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

More 'sinker' in the latter stages of this GEFS suite Feb. 

Let's hope that is reversed with the 0z suite.

Yes although the evolution on the mean from 324 to 336 gives me hope - the back is starting to rise.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Could just mean theres a few more easterlies in there than 12z Aaron  - might not mean any more zonality - 850's mean similar.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Purga said:

Retrogression anyone?

image.thumb.png.57e9035a66382e532b65a0001d3787be.png

image.thumb.png.94edfcafae297489d1c033a76aab59b1.png

image.thumb.png.588d0643b43740ec5a638ce2612fad06.png

Pub run =

What impressed me about the end of this run, is the endless feed of cold, and I mean brutal cold -15 to -20 uppers behind what would be a channel low to kick things off. 

The whole PV is literally locked and loaded aiming directly at us and Central Europe. If only...! 

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

Just to add this coming cold spell has already reached the media..

I'm quite surprised by T+192 how quickly the weather from the East is pushing towards us.

Not that I'm complaining" to be honest it's all taken me by surprise 

I was chart viewing last week and saw nothing of real substance. 

Now it's a mad rush to buy some De icer and put my winter tyres on.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Popular Post
Posted

P19 the pick - a ridiculous repeat of the great midlands blizzard of Dec 1990.

gensnh-19-1-360_acx6.png

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Wow!! Not sure I've seen charts like these since my personal hunt for cold started in 2011 after the fab winter of 2010!!!! In fact I have seen charts like these but only when people posted old ones as an example of what is ideal and what we need to see!!!

Just had a look in the other MOD thread- is everyone just partying in here now?! Lol!!

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

More 'sinker' in the latter stages of this GEFS suite Feb. 

Let's hope that is reversed with the 0z suite.

Still a few good runs in there, the 18z parallel however is very disappointing. Sends a load of energy over the top of the block at T120. Exciting charts but caution is required.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Wow!! Not sure I've seen charts like these since my personal hunt for cold started in 2011 after the fab winter of 2010!!!! In fact I have seen charts like these but only when people posted old ones as an example of what is ideal and what we need to see!!!

Just had a look in the other MOD thread and poor Knocker seems to be there all on his own - is everyone just partying in here now?! Lol!!

 

Last Feb / March were not too bad too be fair.

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Last Feb / March were not too bad too be fair.

Sadly didn't deliver much for my area but I know that wasn't the case UK wide. Were they seen as far out as this is? Thanks - still learning!x

Edited by weathergeek
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Still a few good runs in there, the 18z parallel however is very disappointing. Sends a load of energy over the top of the block at T120. Exciting charts but caution is required.

Yes, the control is poor (relative to hat we've seen) also in further FI

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, weathergeek said:

Sadly didn't deliver much for my area but I know that wasn't the case UK wide. We're they seen as far out as this is? Thanks - still learning!x

It was well signposted - a sudden stratospheric warming was widely accepted as the cause of it, i was telling people i know something special was possible from early feb, it was as rock solid countdown to an easterly ive ever seen, be that in the Netweather era or before in the countryfile era.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

WOW!!!

over a hundred members in here and is nearly 12am:shok:

as anyone got work early in the morning of doing a bunk lol

the latest from cpc shows that hp cell retrogressing further west as opposed to the other charts i have been posting over the last few days

610day_03.thumb.gif.fb90a98e7407c878ca5edaacb295b879.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.f59923961bed6421d5a2aa58558264c6.gif

and the latest NAO/AO tanking negative now

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.474c9c4bd5b5a21bcd10671a50a78689.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.aa8822ac8f876c8de212ef5cb28faa95.gif

good times i feel but i still remain cautious as to whether anything will deliver for now.

 

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Enough now. What I want to know is when is Nick Sussex going to get his crayons out on the 18z. I want to know which shortwave can ruin everything, when, why and how. Until then I’m reigning in my excitement.

 

(just kidding I’ve just bought a sledge)

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

P12 tempresult_gye2.gif gensnh-12-0-384.png

P15 tempresult_tap6.gif

P18 tempresult_xgd2.gif

P19 gensnh-19-1-360.png gens-19-0-372.png

P20 tempresult_nca8.gif

GEM 12z ensembles also looking good

gens_panel_tmv9.png

gens_panel_qav8.png

gens_panel_vbt8.png

gens_panel_gwu5.png

gens-3-1-348.png gens-4-1-348.png gens-16-1-348.png

and some from the latest runs of the infamous cfs 

1 month version cfs-0-174.png?12 cfs-2-240.png?12

9 month version tempresult_bbs1.gif tempresult_hbn0.gif

 

 

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