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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted (edited)

Do hate to burst everyone’s bubble - I’m a huge fan of these charts so I include myself in that - but these charts don’t show widespread snow for anyone really. It’s not cold enough for convective snow and neither cold enough for transient snow on the south coast, should any lows make it through to sustain the E’ly. I take these charts as a great sign of what could be to come but let’s not delude people observing. These are superb Synoptics but, as yet, only translate to some early season cold. (That’s my view anyway, feel free to disagree - politely). 

Edit: this chart, mind you, at T+unicorns, profoundly disagrees. It also shows reloads. So, as mentioned, maybe the road to narnia will take a week or two to travel. Patience. 

3D501DD9-24D2-4FBF-A1C8-F1CDD6DF2C94.png

Edited by ITSY
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

A true sight for the eye of the coldie !!!

 

gfsnh-0-336.png

gfsnh-0-336.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

gfsnh-1-360.png?18

 

Meh, takes too long, we can do better. ?‍✈️❄️

 

Edited by Mucka
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Do hate to burst everyone’s bubble - I’m a huge fan of these charts so I include myself in that - but these charts don’t show widespread snow for anyone really. It’s not cold enough for convective snow and neither cold enough for transient snow on the south coast, should any lows make it through to sustain the E’ly. I take these charts as a great sign of what could be to come but let’s not delude people observing. These are superb Synoptics but, as yet, only translate to some early season cold. (That’s my view anyway, feel free to disagree - politely). 

No. 

They represent the pattern going forward. If the 18z came off the Vortex is dead, retrogression will bring bitterly cold and I mean bitterly cold air to the UK and the pattern will be locked in for at least a couple of weeks. 

Big picture. If we see charts like this continue in the coming days it’s time to get very, very excited. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Do hate to burst everyone’s bubble - I’m a huge fan of these charts so I include myself in that - but these charts don’t show widespread snow for anyone really. It’s not cold enough for convective snow and neither cold enough for transient snow on the south coast, should any lows make it through to sustain the E’ly. I take these charts as a great sign of what could be to come but let’s not delude people observing. These are superb Synoptics but, as yet, only translate to some early season cold. (That’s my view anyway, feel free to disagree - politely). 

Mate...thats not far away..(synops given)..

For decent convective territory!!!..

As the gain..gathers!!!..

And the cold takes hold.

Wassertemperatur_EU_NA.png

GFSOPEU00_0_35.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Do hate to burst everyone’s bubble - I’m a huge fan of these charts so I include myself in that - but these charts don’t show widespread snow for anyone really. It’s not cold enough for convective snow and neither cold enough for transient snow on the south coast, should any lows make it through to sustain the E’ly. I take these charts as a great sign of what could be to come but let’s not delude people observing. These are superb Synoptics but, as yet, only translate to some early season cold. (That’s my view anyway, feel free to disagree - politely). 

Oh come on. It’s the possibility that people are excited about. We are revelling in the Synoptics. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted (edited)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

In the trade, we call that a trend. 

Edited by Mucka
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

That was some pub run, here we are at the end of it, 

image.thumb.jpg.0b63d1a11927858c7419c8339a7bafb2.jpg

Vortex marmalised.

image.thumb.jpg.86e8f338819c2cfcbbdca05555b36a1f.jpg

Cold, cold, cold

image.thumb.jpg.f54279b302b96189d2217e587faaaea7.jpg

Jet stream stuck south...for some time...to be continued...

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

No. 

They represent the pattern going forward. If the 18z came off the Vortex is dead, retrogression will bring bitterly cold and I mean bitterly cold air to the UK and the pattern will be locked in for at least a couple of weeks. 

Big picture. If we see charts like this continue in the coming days it’s time to get very, very excited. 

Yes although the 18z doesn't bring much in the way of anything wintry it sets the seeds perfectly for a very cold spell.

If the 18z came off it would be a question of when not if we get a proper cold period of weather.

As you say such a pattern could be locked in for a while as the vortex is smashed to pieces.

Lets see what happens though. Key point is where the energy at T132 goes.

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
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Posted
Just now, Spah1 said:

Oh come on. It’s the possibility that people are excited about. We are revelling in the Synoptics. 

Totally on board with this, guess I’m just pinching myself to avoid a jinx! Screw it, this winter gonna be epic. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

In the trade, we call that a trend. 

0z -  the 12z might be even better.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

What a piece de resistance? Icing on the cake? Grand finale? Everything coming together in perfect harmony? Ivory and ivory? Whiteout at the OK Corale? Ten-foot snowdrifts in November! I feel like I'm 6 again!

Netweather GFS Image

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

From T+168 hrs fantastic charts.

With some saying there's not much snow in the forecast 

Is this the none alcoholic version of the Beast From the East. 

 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

0z -  the 12z might be even better.

LOL I actually saw the 12 and thought 12z, I am still awaiting my prescription glasses (true story!)

I think the 12z set will be better too. 

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pages Aficionado

pages

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
Posted
1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

From T+168 hrs fantastic charts.

With some saying there's not much snow in the forecast 

Is this the none alcoholic version of the Beast From the East. 

 

Nobody will be saying no snow forecast if 384 comes off, everyone will be buried and had enough for winter before the 1st of December

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a piece de resistance? Icing on the cake? Grand finale? Everything coming together in perfect harmony? Ivory and ivory? Whiteout at the OK Corale? Ten-foot snowdrifts in November! I feel like I'm 6 again!

Netweather GFS Image

#winterofdiscontent

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, pages said:

Nobody will be saying no snow forecast if 384 comes off, everyone will be buried and had enough for winter before the 1st of December

And Fred's 'snow by month's end' prediction will just about come true too...Just!⛷️

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

And Fred's 'snow by month's end' prediction will just about come true too...Just!⛷️

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

#winterofdiscontent

It seems we're thinking along similar lines, Fred?:cold:

Edited by Ed Stone
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