Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[markw2680]

Although p9 is pretty damn good I also think these too would be a good start to a very long cold winter, especially p17

[Mike Poole]

Liking the pub run at T120:

Looking to push the block north, with WAA to come...

[SMU]

So just to remind ourselves of the pattern showing day 6!

Heres a poser that puts a shadow over those claiming this is linked in with the usual teleconnections - 100% disagree.

How many times in the last 20 years can we show a chart like the above in November with significantly Strong blocking at higher lattitudes - ?

2009/2010 - yep, also 2013 maybe 1 or 2 times??

Note all appearing since the ice dropped off a cliff -

The MJO & infact all other teleconnections have been churning since the day dot, but only these extreme patterns ( in particular high pressure intensity ) have really appeared in the last 10 years.

Whilst supporting the additional waves in the jet the MJO isnt the core driver here as its not a variable thats been subject to change-

This is the latent heat & ice anomalies supporting high pressure over western russia & now extending into Scandi driving wave activity -

I will update the post in NH thread tomorrow but this is just the start of a winter to remember - just like 2010...

[Wilxy]

That is more like it!

[Spah1]

Energy in the Atlantic looking different on this run. Doesn’t seem as keen to go over the top of the high. 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Spah1

[Derecho]

Right so if we want to get retrogression here is the key thing to look out for in the next couple of runs... the key point being around T132

 The low in the black circle needs to move south or SE, the low in the red cross needs to dissapate.

 

I think at the least we will see a nice early cold snap but if we want to hit the jackpot a clean retrogression is the way forward.

If we can get clean retrogression there will be a large area of very cold uppers running down from the North into Europe.

Edit: Tom beat me to it.

Bingo it is now trapped towards the Azores

Edited November 12, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So just to remind ourselves of the pattern showing day 6!

Heres a poser that puts a shadow over those claiming this is linked in with the usual teleconnections - 100% disagree.

How many times in the last 20 years can we show a chart like the above in November with significantly Strong blocking at higher lattitudes - ?

2009/2010 - yep, also 2013 maybe 1 or 2 times??

Note all appearing since the ice dropped off a cliff -

The MJO & infact all other teleconnections have been churning since the day dot, but only these extreme patterns ( in particular high pressure intensity ) have really appeared in the last 10 years.

Whilst supporting the additional waves in the jet the MJO isnt the core driver here as its not a variable thats been subject to change-

This is the latent heat & ice anomalies supporting high pressure over western russia & now extending into Scandi driving wave activity -

I will update the post in NH thread tomorrow but this is just the start of a winter to remember - just like 2010...

I think i just had an accident .

Thats some prediction, i hope you are right!!

TBF Glosea seems to agree judging from the last winter update..

Edited November 12, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Energy in the Atlantic looking different On this run. Doesn’t seem as keen to go over the top of the high. 

Yes absolutely, here at T150:

high sooooo far north!  And the jet stream:

Southern arm wins, wonder how many days, weeks or even months pass before that changes? Getting ahead of things, let's just watch the output head inexorably in the direction of cold.

Edited November 12, 2018 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Its actually mezmorising watching that huge anticyclone build and just bully the Atlantic like this..

[shaky]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its actually mezmorising watching that huge anticyclone build and just bully the Atlantic like this..

The sheer size of the scandi high is amazing!!gona feel really cold next week with a east wind!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So just to remind ourselves of the pattern showing day 6!

Heres a poser that puts a shadow over those claiming this is linked in with the usual teleconnections - 100% disagree.

How many times in the last 20 years can we show a chart like the above in November with significantly Strong blocking at higher lattitudes - ?

2009/2010 - yep, also 2013 maybe 1 or 2 times??

Note all appearing since the ice dropped off a cliff -

The MJO & infact all other teleconnections have been churning since the day dot, but only these extreme patterns ( in particular high pressure intensity ) have really appeared in the last 10 years.

Whilst supporting the additional waves in the jet the MJO isnt the core driver here as its not a variable thats been subject to change-

This is the latent heat & ice anomalies supporting high pressure over western russia & now extending into Scandi driving wave activity -

I will update the post in NH thread tomorrow but this is just the start of a winter to remember - just like 2010...

Steve

I will add that we enter Dalton to Maunder minima Solar level playing fields...I suspect similar happened then....but we certainly don’t have charts etc....and I’ll up the ante.....’Winter of Discontent’  .....aka 78/9

 

BFTP

Edited November 12, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes absolutely, here at T150:

high sooooo far north!  And the jet stream:

Southern arm wins, wonder how many days, weeks or even months pass before that changes? Getting ahead of things, let's just watch the output head inexorably in the direction of cold.

Just look at how far south that jetstream is.....honestly folks...look at it.......very striking

 

BFTP

Edited November 12, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Spah1]

A date with Kelly Brook or stare at that chart? It’s a tough one

Edited November 12, 2018 by Spah1

[northwestsnow]

By next week it will be feeling raw in the SE as we drag in those cooler uppers from central Europe.

[bluearmy]

Initial look at the ec46 on the Icelandic view shows weeks three and four maintaining surface high to our east but doesn’t look a particularly strong signal and isn’t showing the mid Atlantic high tha5 last issue did so best to wait for next 30 dayer adjustment from Exeter which will use clustering 

[Ice Day]

Certainly some interesting charts on offer from all the models over the last couple of days, but I suspect patience is going to be key to get in a proper potent winter blast.  Most of the notable spells over the last couple of years seem to require a few bites of the cherry before the real cold gets in.  However, there are some solid building blocks being put in place

Personally, I think we're looking at the first few days of December before anything really significant arrives

Looking at the Pub Run, at 198, nice cold pool moving across the UK heading west.  As Ian Drury once said, 'Reasons to be Cheerful'

  

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

A date with Kelly Brook or stare at that chart? It’s a tough one

If it gets further north and over Greenland , Kelly Brook’s getting the middle finger

Edited November 12, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T204:

The energy going south key here, the low SW of the UK maybe the player to pump this up towards Greenland, let's see...

[SMU]

So guys you have a number to aim at-

10c & under is about the magical number for snow...

[Met4Cast]

Hells teeth this is actually a chart we’re seeing, incredible!

[Methuselah]

Steady as she goes:

[Derecho]

We have seen a few ensemble members that have produced cold northerlies with a very strong Greenland high. None have been the OP so far though.

Could the 18z be the first?

[Mucka]

"that's not a retrograde..."

 

"Now that's a retrograde!"

 

[northwestsnow]

18z looks a ripper!!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So guys you have a number to aim at-

10c & under is about the magical number for snow...

Just wished this was later in season - same surface pressure but with lower 850mb and 500mb heights and temps - with that knink in the surface isobars and sub 520 heights - a right dumping would ensue.