Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS mean a stonker at 240.

Do share! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Do share! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Compared to this mornings 0z

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wow Feb that is bloody stonking. And a lot better than this mornings . 

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Compared to this mornings 0z

Hello retrogression: 

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Hello retrogression: 

Stonkers indeed, but do be aware of Snowking's caveat re retrogression?

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Stonkers indeed, but do be aware of Snowking's caveat re retrogression?

The extended mean shows the energy headed into the southern arm - awaiting the clusters later to see the trend from the model  - it’s really not so clear where the favoured direction of travel is within the broad theme of blocking to our north 

 

[legritter]

Well gang ,something to get our teeth into .my dog as been over at the computer wagging his tail ,I spent time up the wood shed today summoning an easterly ,a good start  ,some mild murk to come first and certainly some interesting charts on offer .I am off to the NORFOLK coast next Monday for a week Grey Seal WATCHING WILL I need hat and gloves .Great forum LETS hope we can all share a great winter , Stellas all round . .

 

[nick sussex]

Tonights ECM op was an upgrade in terms of bringing the upper cold pool  in towards the UK but we are talking about day 7 onwards and these cold pools are like spot the ball for those who remember that far back ! 

Looking at the De Bilt ensembles the control run looks interesting ! 

[summer blizzard]

Friday looks to be the peak of the surface warmth as both warm uppers and a tropical airmass conspire together..

After a foggy weekend with a surface inversion developing, we get cool upper and surface air alligned by day 8..

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Tonights ECM op was an upgrade in terms of bringing the upper cold pool  in towards the UK but we are talking about day 7 onwards and these cold pools are like spot the ball for those who remember that far back ! 

Looking at the De Bilt ensembles the control run looks interesting ! 

Indeed Nick :) sub zero from day 11 to the end. 

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Compared to this mornings 0z

Seems to be a trend - 12Z op run has lower heights in Europe than the 00z. 

I was a little underwhelmed looking at the temperature predictions for the ECM on weather.us! Generally reaching 6C daytime between D6 and D10 (some spots 4C), snow limited to very high ground and maybe just maybe for a short period over Kent. Otherwise very cold rain. Needing a even bigger upgrade to see a proper snow event - not impossible but a bit of an ask. 

[markw2680]

I think it’s looking pretty clear we will get some crisp fresh mornings to come early next week which will make the garage horrible to work in I’m sure but what I’m sure we would all like is a jolly good blizzard coming off the warm North Sea. 

Maybe that will bring FROSTY back for some updates....

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Seems to be a trend - 12Z op run has lower heights in Europe than the 00z. 

I was a little underwhelmed looking at the temperature predictions for the ECM on weather.us! Generally reaching 6C daytime between D6 and D10 (some spots 4C), snow limited to very high ground and maybe just maybe for a short period over Kent. Otherwise very cold rain. Needing a even bigger upgrade to see a proper snow event - not impossible but a bit of an ask. 

more thinking that the 12z was brilliant wrt what would follow D10-15 re retrogression, but cautious now after BA's post

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Seems to be a trend - 12Z op run has lower heights in Europe than the 00z. 

I was a little underwhelmed looking at the temperature predictions for the ECM on weather.us! Generally reaching 6C daytime between D6 and D10 (some spots 4C), snow limited to very high ground and maybe just maybe for a short period over Kent. Otherwise very cold rain. Needing a even bigger upgrade to see a proper snow event - not impossible but a bit of an ask. 

Not concerned about that as it is all about the building blocks at the moment. End of the month into early December for the more interesting wintry potential. 

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

more thinking that the 12z was brilliant wrt what would follow D10-15 re retrogression, but cautious now after BA's post

I’m expecting the clusters to be quite varied in the extended period (and probably earlier) ........ still can’t see a stonking greeny high developing until the last few days of the month at the earliest (wouldn’t rule out a Griceland option though)  ..... signs that the blocking could become quite diffuse as Steve alluded earlier - that could work in any case

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not concerned about that as it is all about the building blocks at the moment. End of the month into early December for the more interesting wintry potential. 

I completely agree with this, whether the Scandi high retrogresses or not is largely immaterial at this point, what matters is the high latitude blocking remains prevalent.

I'm not convinced retrogression of this high is even the likeliest route to a Greenland high, I've seen ensemble runs push up a new ridge in the Atlantic, and I wonder if the ECM 12z might have been hinting at this on the very last frame:

Beyond that possibility, there are two further positives, blocking leading to weakening of the strat vortex (currently strong) - potential jam  in a month or so's time?, and continued disruption of the trop vortex, potential jam In a couple of weeks.  

Finally, no sign AT ALL of the Atlantic at the moment, and we'd get advance warning via a coupling of the strat and trop with the strat dominating if the Atantic were to break through.  I think this unlikely, I think more likely the trop will dominate the strat. we'll see.

[Mucka]

Steady as she goes and unfolding in accordance with last forecast, mid lat blocking to continue with increased chance high lat blocking last week of Nov. 

Mild mid month weather gives way to cooler continental flow as ScEuro ridge builds west with potential for Arctic outbreak increased last week Nov. Shame the most important bit is the hardest bit to make a call on.

So long as any ridging is not far enough West or vertical enough the pattern will continue to be overrun by the Northern arm of the jet and a retrograde pattern will not occur though the pattern is set to remain amplified so repeated chances look likely.

We either need more undercut or the pattern further West or in a perfect world both.

I'm not convinced ECM mean shows likely retrogression though it comes close.

What we need is for the Atlantic ridge to be West of the most Western extent of Southern Greenland and ideally pushing a little further North, this prevents any Atlantic energy squeezing between the high and Southern coast of Greenland which is what causes the toppler scenario and cuts off any troughing on the Eastern flank and an Arctic outbreak. If you can get the pattern far enough West and North then it cuts off threat Atlantic supply completely and causes the LP systems to  run up the W coast of Greenland and dissipate. This in turn allows for undercutting later and a trough to push into central Europe feeding cold Arctic air our way which can then well lead to a retrograde pattern and a Unicorn flying over a rainbow, I mean a cut-off Greenland high.

Often in these scenarios we need more than one bite at the cherry until we get the blocking far enough West and with the current pattern we will get that (more than one bite) because the pattern doesn't look like being flattened out by energy flowing over the top, just temporarily toppled before rebuilding.

Can't ask for much better though so early in the season. Much better chances of snow falling than the average end Nov/early Dec fare but still too far away to get too excited,

Edited November 12, 2018 by Mucka

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z looks good at end of run, T120:

This high pressure built by the warm air advection earlier, here T90, note the low in the Atlantic, pumping stuff up!

Edited November 12, 2018 by Mike Poole

[BlazeStorm]

GEFS P4 looking a bit wild!

Edited November 12, 2018 by BlazeStorm

[matt111]

1 minute ago, BlazeStorm said:

GEFS P4 looking a bit wild!

Presumably not the Atlantic sort? 

[BlazeStorm]

1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Presumably not the Atlantic sort? 

Caked in snow!

[matt111]

Just now, BlazeStorm said:

Caked in snow!

That's my kind of wild! 

[markw2680]

15 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

Caked in snow!

Couldn’t of put it better myself. I like the caked but lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

P9 is my fav....

E’ly gales, bitter cold feeding in.....it’s spot on btw

 

BFTP