Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Captain Shortwave]

Well there is the deeper cold pool to at least inject a little bit of instability.

The retrograde still looks good here as well.

[SLEETY]

In  january 87 i remember the forecaster mention the  temp at 2000ft  had risen to plus 5  Centigrade after the initial deep cold  pool had passed over after about the Wednesday .But it was still sub zero at ground level,so bring on “faux cold”.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like ECM is speeding up the arrival of the colder air

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Oh dear faux cold gate ! It wouldn’t be same without our annual faux cold incident ! Anyway just so you don’t have to ring the faux cold trauma unit I’ll refrain from using that term until this time next year ! 

If we get faux cold, we could get freezing fog and if it precipitates would that be faux snow? 

[Eskimo]

Just now, Weather-history said:

If we get faux cold, we could get freezing fog and if it precipitates would that be faux snow? 

No it would be called faux frost 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

In  january 87 i remember the forecaster mention the  temp at 2000ft  had risen to plus 5  Centigrade after the initial deep cold  pool had passed over after about the Wednesday .But it was still sub zero at ground level,so bring on “faux cold”.

Aye Sleety, that would explain the freezing drizzle...Similar thing occurred in 1976 and '79, if I remember correctly?

[Timmytour]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

No it would be called faux frost 

For faux sake! 

[Mike Poole]

And here we go, looking astonishingly good at T192 ECM:

Edit, worth dropping in the JMA at same time:

Edited November 12, 2018 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like ECM is speeding up the arrival of the colder air

on the furthest eps extreme re progressiveness with that cold pool ………… unlikely to be right but then it is the ec op within what should be a fairly reliable period  …………………..

 

gfsp none too shabby with its week 2 solution either …….

[Tim Bland]

Nothing faux about the cold at day 9 on ECM could be some light faux...I mean snow in the south! 

 

[Summer Sun]

Amid faux gate, ECM 12z continues to bring in colder air

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

ECM day 10 shows yet again that post cold launch at days 5-6 we are still seeing the jet attenuated at day 10...

Get used to that theme as we head through December...

[snowking]

For what it’s worth -

Obviously the major scandi high looks pretty well fixed right about now, and that is good news in terms of longer term prospects from a stratospheric standpoint

In the longer term, the retrogression signal to Greenland I remain dubious of. We’ve been here too many times before in recent winters and what has generally spoiled things is how much of the tropospheric vortex is left residually over Greenland as we get closer and closer to T+0. Generally speaking, all modelling has been too keen to drain low heights away from Greenland and across to the Asian sector at longer timeframes, only generally to downgrade prospects with just a bit too much vortex energy left over Greenland.

However, this early in the season before the big bad spinning plate of the vortex has had a chance to get its balance, such disruptive tropospheric patterns are hugely comforting to see

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by snowking

[nick sussex]

Overall good agreement in the medium term , high pressure in charge initially bringing some mild weather  before a change of orientation brings some colder conditions from the east .

Cloud amounts are going to be difficult to pin down , much depends on the exact flow direction .

The cold pool is liable to change between runs. There seems little chance of a return to any Atlantic domination in the next two weeks .

Which I’m sure is a huge relief for parts of the UK who have suffered some large rain totals and  generally crxp weather in recent weeks.

After the easterly the ECM tries to bring a shallow low northwards but it looks messy overall but the location of the PV lobes continues to offer interest for coldies.

Expanding on that high pressure likely to hang on with continued chances for some colder conditions . 

Edited November 12, 2018 by nick sussex

[Purga]

Nice split Vortex showing there on the NH view D10 ECM

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Purga

[Dancerwithwings]

43 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

the block at 144 ecm looks further north to me. 

Aye, when you see these anomalies/heights at 144h (ecm) who’s to know what’s going to happen or where it’s going thereafter....interesting times

[Mike Poole]

My couple of picks from the GEM ensemble, at T240:

PS I don't really get the whole faux cold thing, aren't we just talking about a temperature inversion under an anticyclone?

[Scandinavian High.]

10 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Aye, when you see these anomalies/heights at 144h (ecm) who’s to know what’s going to happen or where it’s going thereafter....interesting times

That’s one big block to the  north east if this is the theme this winter could be very interesting...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My couple of picks from the GEM ensemble, at T240:

PS I don't really get the whole faux cold thing, aren't we just talking about a temperature inversion under an anticyclone?

Stonking runs - its faux cold because it cant produce proper snow events.

[stodge]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My couple of picks from the GEM ensemble, at T240:

PS I don't really get the whole faux cold thing, aren't we just talking about a temperature inversion under an anticyclone?

You have to remember many on here want snow while a small minority are happy with cold and don't care much about snow.

As I often have to remind people, it's perfectly possible to get an ice day in London with an inversion - under fog the temperature is suppressed but not a flake of snow.

[Geordiesnow]

More of a trend from this evenings runs to push the high further North and West especially on the ECM, this allows the cool pool head more towards the UK as a result which may help given the warm SST's allow to generate some convective weather.

As others say though, such details are likely to change but hopefully we will have the high as far North and West to start off as it more likely to help in the long run. 

[Don]

I believe the south east had several ice days in mid-December 1991 under an inversion.

[Methuselah]

Here's chart from 1972: a stonker of a high pressure, yet the cold spell (-16C?) only lasted for a few days.

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Ed Stone
Oops!

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS mean a stonker at 240.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I believe the south east had several ice days in mid-December 1991 under an inversion.

Birmingham had ice days and overnight temperatures of -8c

I thought it was early December but my memory might be playing tricks.

Edited November 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard