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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Getting very interesting now.

Diagramme GEFS

Wouldnt surprise if ecm comes up with a beauty of a run this evening!!then again it could all go tits up

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wouldnt surprise if ecm comes up with a beauty of a run this evening!!then again it could all go tits up

Image result for sitting on the fence

 

image.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tonight’s choice isn’t too bad . Faux cold or real cold ! 

The infamous faux cold debate , we have this every winter and for newer members at this time of year under high pressure we can develop colder conditions even when the upper air at first sight looks pretty mild .

High pressure centered over Scandi comes in a variety of what it delivers in terms of upper air profile .

So into the weekend and next week temps dropping looks like a good bet but the main uncertainty at the moment is where any upper cold pool goes . 

Its always the same story in these types of set ups , lots to be resolved there but Euro blocking is generally better modelled  by the ECM

 

Im happy with any cold !! Faux cold late November can be amazing !! 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im happy with any cold !! Faux cold late November can be amazing !! 

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake nor artificial about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake nor artificial about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

 

Does it really matter that much to you that you have to pull someone up about it - oh dear.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

Thanks for making that apparent, I was just thinking what the hell is faux cold.....I’d be happy with just -20 uppers

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake nor artificial about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

Kev you sound like maggie thatcher!! Crime is crime is crime 

I hear you.. to be honest i was quoting Nick of the Sussex ..

Either way cold at the top middle or bottom suits me sir ..

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does it really matter that much to you that you have to pull someone up about it - oh dear.

I should have been clearer, it was a general point rather than aimed at one specific person ie northwestsnow. 

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

The issue with surface cold is that it doesn’t lead to snow ...which is what most on here want / crave. Might get frost or Rime or freezing rain.

of concern for me is the fact that the GFS op follows the control. Patience is the key with this pattern, unlikely we will see snow before December still 

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Kev you sound like maggie thatcher!! Crime is crime is crime 

I hear you.. to be honest i was quoting Nick of the Sussex ..

Either way cold at the top middle or bottom suits me sir ..

I wasn't having a go at you, it was that ruddy term. I hate it! 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

DD778751-AE56-4BAF-B881-AA11C54EC584.thumb.png.0011424af2b7b666a3af7ed562005c71.png

the block at 144 ecm looks further north to me. 

Edited by Spah1
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wasn't having a go at you, it was that ruddy term. I hate it! 

Lol! Oh dear faux cold gate ! It wouldn’t be same without our annual faux cold incident ! Anyway just so you don’t have to ring the faux cold trauma unit I’ll refrain from using that term until this time next year ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

Certainly enough evidence that the high wil likely shift west during week 2 to sit close to Scotland with a generally light easterly across most of the UK. 850s look cool enough for temperatures to drop back into single figures with night frosts. It does look mostly dry though if we do see a distrubance along with colder 850s develop then we could pull something more significant than stratus off the north sea. I guess the excitement is more about how this game of hemispheric chess will pan out rather than the benign  conditions we will see for the foreseeable. The trend continues to see the pattern retrogress, lets hope the high can maintain enough latitude to pull something significant our way.

Not my favourite weather-pattern, in November, I admit...If only it were January, that cold rain might be snow?

PS: What's wrong with surface cold?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
39 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Stratospheric disturbances were expected. Trop pattern looks to be happening a lot earlier than anticipated.

So a cold start to winter looking a very good bet.  Stewart (good having you pop in) are you seeing longevity in this too like some of us are?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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