Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi there again, the above talks about the forecast in the medium term to become a bit more fluid due to pressure falls over Europe, funny enough we have just been given our first snowfall forecast . Next Monday night , moderate snowfall projected with temp falling to -12c by Tuesday morning. That's a start !

C

Lovely mild sunny day in the Katschberg. This view today  towards The Pollatal Valley with snow covered Rot Gulden Mountain in the background. A bit of a change this time next week looking at that chart from GFS showing a Westward propagating trough moving through Europe ( hence , I suppose our forecast of snow ) see above post. Bit of a disagreement between ECM and GFS as to the progress and direction of this development out of Russia. Maybe tonight runs will indicate if this is going to affect the British Isles.

C

Edited November 12, 2018 by carinthian

[winterof79]

The colder air pushing in to Germany later this week

[booferking]

CFS looking not to shabby..

[Dennis]

Latest NAO forecast

[Met4Cast]

First out of the gates, ICON looking decent 

[shaky]

22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

First out of the gates, ICON looking decent 

Its okay!!bit of sagging towards italy!!hopefully gfs and ukmo prop the high up a bit more!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its okay!!bit of sagging towards italy!!hopefully gfs and ukmo prop the high up a bit more!!

The high needs to do more abs

[Eskimo]

[Met4Cast]

Better from the 12z GFS, it now has that low backing Westwards across Eastern Europe underneath the block, along with a growing cold pool

[ICE COLD]

GFS 192 looks lovely 

[Cloud 10]

Nice to see "black hole" season is upon us already.

 

[Met4Cast]

If I was being picky I'd want the high pressure a little further North to allow the UK to tap into the cold pool sat across Central Europe.

From a NH viewpoint though, what a chart! Riding right across the Arctic, the Trop vortex is split into two different segments, the high is perfectly placed for wave breaking into the Stratosphere, that'd do some damage!

[Methuselah]

Looks as if the cold pool is getting colder?

[Seasonality]

Belter of a GFS run for November. Europe going into the freezer, finally... 

[ICE COLD]

Come on become a cut off high . It's nearly there . 

[Met4Cast]

Second pulse of even colder Arctic air now moving South-Eastwards around the Eastern flank of the high

One positive is that Europe is going into the freezer and we've got a growing cold pool right where we want one should the high shift slightly North and allow an Easterly to develop

[Summer Sun]

GEM a slight downgrade this afternoon?

00z

12z

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM a slight downgrade this afternoon?

00z

12z

 

For uppers, but the position on the high and the strength of the undercutting trough look better in my opinion. 

[Met4Cast]

Odd evolution with the UK ending up between two flabby areas of high pressure, bit of a no-mans land situation there

But that's too far out to be concerned with anyway. The positives is that theres an upgrade on the initial block and the undercutting down the Eastern flank of the high is still present, no back down from the GFS in this regard. Hoping to see a slight shift on the Euros this evening towards this solution, 

At the very least, Europe will go cold. Little chance of the UK seeing a true cold spell beyond surface cold unless the high retrogresses, but lets get the block over Scandinavia in place before worrying too much about that. 

Fantastic early season chart watching all the same.

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

For uppers, but the position on the high and the strength of the undercutting trough look better in my opinion. 

True...But the trust old GFS is thinking of going pear-shaped. Just a wee hiccup, so no need to panic Mr Mainwearing!

Always look on the bright side of life?

Edited November 12, 2018 by Ed Stone
Oops!

[SLEETY]

nice to see minus 20 upppers  so early in the season,over parts of Europe only way we are heading is bitterly cold if this high latitude blocking continues to build in the foreseeable.

[shaky]

The control run looks better in regards to the easterly  early on!!very cold air coming in from the east on the 21st on this run!!

[Dancerwithwings]

47 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks as if the cold pool is getting colder?

 

And bigger, the 12z control ain't bad at all

[feb1991blizzard]

Getting very interesting now.

[Glacier Point]

Convectively coupled tropical wave passage through the Indian Ocean ... check.

Resultant spike in the Asian Jet and introduction of westerlies on the back equatorward momentum transport...GWO spikes phase 4 ... check.

Hemispheric pattern becomes highly amplified as a result... check

Stratosphere warming on the back of upward wave activity.. check.

All the ingredients here being set out for what we are seeing in GEFS extended.