Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[weirpig]

Ensembles   Opp and control on the mild side of the mean in its mid to  later stages( central england)

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Its a good winterly start....the change to a real cold phase is later in november after 25th i monitor ....a greenie should be soon at the run....

 

Interesting Dennis, what makes you think a Greenland High will be on offer?

[Summer Sun]

Little change on the 06z mean change looks to be around mid next week

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Are there any beasterlys in there from the initial blast from the east around the 20th!!

None that deliver frigid uppers - the lowest is -6c

EDIT : Lower around  the SE

around -8c for SE - a few but not many.

Edited November 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[coldwinter]

Nobody watching the para GFS then, snow possible by day 10! 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Its a good winterly start....the change to a real cold phase is later in november after 25th i monitor ....a greenie should be soon at the run....

 

Agree - its been threatening at the end of a lot of GEFS for a number of runs now.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

None that deliver frigid uppers - the lowest is -6c

EDIT : Lower around  the SE

around -8c for SE - a few but not many.

-8 or -6 should be enough for snow grains especially with a continental flow!!i be happy to see a few snowflakes and harsh frosts before the main course

[Dennis]

6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Interesting Dennis, what makes you think a Greenland High will be on offer?

Its based on this 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

-8 or -6 should be enough for snow grains especially with a continental flow!!i be happy to see a few snowflakes and harsh frosts before the main course

Yes, you said beast though, i certainly dont class -6c and sleety cold rain a beast. The Easterly is almost certainly happening now - a majority solution, overwhelmingly so, just a minority though that would bring meaningful snow - retrogresssion afterwards though - different story if we get theer.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, you said beast though, i certainly dont class -6c and sleety cold rain a beast. The Easterly is almost certainly happening now - a majority solution, overwhelmingly so, just a minority though that would bring meaningful snow - retrogresssion afterwards though - different story if we get theer.

Couldn't agree more, feb: after the dreicherly, what follows is still 'up in the air'...

[Allseasons-Si]

Snow advancing west on the para

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=16&mode3h=0&runpara=1&carte=0&runpara=1&

Edited November 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Couldn't agree more, feb: after the dreicherly, what follows is still 'up in the air'...

Yes - still rather have it than not though - think about where it could lead.

[Dennis]

I monitor strato alot so a change pattern is ahead ....

 

[Man With Beard]

Right leaving aside the GFS, the ECM ensembles look a little less keen on a cold low coming around the bottom of the high - just the smallest cluster doing a particularly convincing job by D10 (cluster 2 is close)

A bit of a shift from last night's clusters though, which had the blocking a little more NE in general

A few days later, and we'll be onto the next conundrum - will heights then rise to the NW? Cluster 1 is asking the question, cluster 3 (25% of members so not that small) is definitely interested

The main theme, though, is a protracted Atlantic shut-out coming up. And that's unlikely to be mild at this time of year.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEM decent as well.

[nick sussex]

The GFS06 hrs run refuses to backdown on the cold pool.

Its quite unusual to see the ECM less interested as normally the GFS has more of a problem with Euro blocking . 

The key here is the cutback in the jet . The ECM has the jet going se taking the cold pool away with it , the GFS you’ll see on the jet stream charts brings the jet sw towards the Low Countries .

Putting aside those differences longer term something is stirring ! 

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS06 hrs run refuses to backdown on the cold pool.

Its quite unusual to see the ECM less interested as normally the GFS has more of a problem with Euro blocking . 

The key here is the cutback in the jet . The ECM has the jet going se taking the cold pool away with it , the GFS you’ll see on the jet stream charts brings the jet sw towards the Low Countries .

Putting aside those differences longer term something is stirring ! 

Yeh normally its the ecm that cuts the jet stream more towards us than the gfs but this time its the òther way around!!dunno whether thats a good thing or a bad thing!!

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder if Rampling will be on here to give us an essential mix of cold and snow this winter, or will it all go Pete tong at the last minute again.

Edited November 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Dennis]

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Dennis

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh normally its the ecm that cuts the jet stream more towards us than the gfs but this time its the òther way around!!dunno whether thats a good thing or a bad thing!!

I’d rather see the GFS the last to the party!  You’d always want the Euros onside in these set ups . We’ll see tonight , there’s not really a big difference in the overall NH set up so regardless of the initial disagreements on the cold pool the outlook looks more interesting.  

[Timmytour]

On ‎05‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 22:14, Timmytour said:

Reads thread. Looks great for cold prospects

Goes away for a week

Comes back. Reads thread. Looks poor for cold prospects 

Shrugs shoulders and goes away for another week.....

A week later I'm back.

And kinda liking what I'm seeing

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’d rather see the GFS the last to the party!  You’d always want the Euros onside in these set ups . We’ll see tonight , there’s not really a big difference in the overall NH set up so regardless of the initial disagreements on the cold pool the outlook looks more interesting.  

Yes Nick, its not like one of those cliffhangers this evening - we are not reliant on your nemesis - the tracking and clean seperation of a shortwave in the mid range, IMO the squeaky bum time will occur if the retrogression starts coming into the midrange and the rewards (cold uppers) are tangible.

[Weather-history]

GFS 06z mean

[SLEETY]

2 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

With this gradual change to something more seasonal/wintry and possible retrogression beng quite a slow burner. I,m reminded of an old piece of Dorset weather lore.  

Quick to come, Quick to pass 

Long foretold, long to last 

Are you sure they were talking about the Weather...

[Dennis]

Para yesterday 18z