Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS Already another small improvement only 138 hours in.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS Already another small improvement only 138 hours in.

And a big shift west/NW after that

are we going to see a closed hp cell to our north in subsequent runs?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And a big shift west/NW after that

are we going to see a closed hp cell to our north in subsequent runs?

Hopefully at soe stage

 

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hopefully at some stage

 

I edited your post,hope you don't mind

the control has lower height's under the block from 192>more retrogresion west of the hp cell,this could be a stonking run with a northerly imminent.

 

Edited November 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Mr Brown]

59 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

18z within reliable much better imo to 12z....wall of cold coming west with waa towards Pole more sharp.....the hints are that as per this summer, this winter will be similarly remarkable.....

 

BFTP

I know it may be early to ask but, what is your forecast for the month of December as a whole? 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

the control has lower height's under the block from 192>more retrogresion west of the hp cell,this could be a stonking run with a northerly imminent.

 

Yes although i only give as much credence to the control run as any other ensemble member, thats just personal opinion but i would rather have the bigger cluster rather than the minority one with the control run in it forecasting the weather type i prefer, just talking hypothetically there.

[SMU]

PTB 2 would be the 1962 run...

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes although i only give as much credence to the control run as any other ensemble member, thats just personal opinion but i would rather have the bigger cluster rather than the minority one with the control run in it forecasting the weather type i prefer, just talking hypothetically there.

yes,granted

do the op and control lead the way and the members follow?

 

 

[jules216]

8 hours ago, Seasonality said:

I'm in the 'green zone' too. Not complaining about that chart... 

@Seasonality sorry to have forgotten about you, I will be soon living only about 100km south of where you are, you will be my northern neighbor

GFS now takes you out of "green zone" and puts you in to "purple", hope you have changed to winter tyres now or planing to do so soon  

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 2 would be the 1962 run...

It turns out not a bad un.

 

[SMU]

Jeez some crazy ensembles ! Things are about to get busy in here....

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

yes,granted

do the op and control lead the way and the members follow?

 

 

Never really studied it in depth myself, i say ops up until 5-8 days 8 being right the upper end, ensemble means / clusters after that, no more than say number 13 and number 17 could lead the way IMO. no real pattern  wrt which members lead, i did notice on the GEFS though a few years back, that the first few out the bag tended to be more blocked in cold chasing episodes -1,2,3,4  and generally more in the first 10 than the back 10.

[Allseasons-Si]

Gefs ens means 240 and 384

all this talk of Scandi height's over the last fews days and prob bringing faux cold because the continent isn't cold enough,now who would of thought that we could see a retrogression of height's west into the Alantic and posssibly Greenland,last thursday's ec 46 dayer picked this up

could we see a 2010 repeat?

[Met4Cast]

Now that's a strong retrogression signal from the mean at 288 if ever i've seen one

[Allseasons-Si]

Just look at the signal there,i would say 70%-80% in favour is good.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Jeez some crazy ensembles ! Things are about to get busy in here....

Yes Steve certainly looks like an interesting time coming up for us cold weather fans.

P2  

P7  

 

P8 

P12  

P13 

P14 

P17 

Oslo pressure going almost off the chart 

more members going for the pressure to rise in Reykjavik 

still a split in Greenland 

[feb1991blizzard]

Para tantalises with a big cold pool build up.

[Derecho]

Not much more to add this evening that other posters haven't said. A very intriguing set of ensembles with a few wintry ones in there for sure.

Considering where we was at the start of the weekend (a hope of high pressure building over Scandi) its been a good weekend for coldies with height rises to the NW looking like a potential option.

Still a long way to go yet but I think we will either see some calm cold conditions to end the month under high pressure or something wintry with blocking to the NW.

Another thing worth keeping an eye on is this cheeky late tropical storm.

Just about to form, if this meanders in the mid North Atlantic like it is forecast to, it may help any blocking to the NW sustain itself, we shall see. Its another potential variable to consider over the next 10 days.

[Nath]

Hunting for cold in early November is like putting up your Xmas tree.  Too early!!!

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, Nath said:

Hunting for cold in early November is like putting up your Xmas tree.  Too early!!!

Say that to November 2010

[Cheshire Freeze]

CAA initiates at days 7&8 on the 0z GFS

Edited November 12, 2018 by CreweCold

[DanBaynes]

Looks like the high is further nw of the british isles slightly early on this run

[Cheshire Freeze]

This GFS run is insanity...From day 8 it goes COLD.

Then it gets to here...

Destination Greenland.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not quite going to make it on this run as the HP will slip back S across us...but an interesting run nonetheless

[Seasonality]

5 hours ago, jules216 said:

@Seasonality sorry to have forgotten about you, I will be soon living only about 100km south of where you are, you will be my northern neighbor

GFS now takes you out of "green zone" and puts you in to "purple", hope you have changed to winter tyres now or planing to do so soon  

Not a problem Yes, winter tyres are ready. GFS continues to trend cold so they'll be needed. Far FI here I know but I feel the general evolution is where things are headed.