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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted

Latest Gfs shows high pressure strongly in charge with easterlies in by next weekend with uppers still around 4c+5D4C83CA-DF57-491B-97D7-6E27BFDBE237.thumb.jpeg.645689d54e6321cd88ae0a151cd5dbaa.jpeg03B4D4CB-A16A-40D0-AAC7-47F00F8A5CAC.thumb.jpeg.7978f8c11430b49028d56ebfdc45ded1.jpeg

Sst temperatures in the North Sea hovering above 10c still. 4c warmer than March this year7B51955D-AFEB-46B5-B5B7-3C7438DD2419.thumb.jpeg.dcff00a4e692fee60ce5e8dbefb8bf98.jpeg

The mid March easterlies got down to a remarkable-13c5F311CDE-6099-4225-BFFC-93A3350784CD.thumb.png.2f30c025d06f968a8175514c8b3ddab9.png

Late November 2010 had a really favourable pattern composing a front loaded winter with the wind in from the north BE56EB09-3B8D-4C98-A3CE-D7D8E9C19CC6.thumb.jpeg.49e79e02076d4984536e051f877aaebe.jpeg 

 

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Still  quite high coastal SSTs will keep coasts a bit milder 

ukmintemp.png

Aye but they'd tail off quite rapidly if the cold gets entrenched wouldn't it Moki? 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Some of these ens members are aggresively building a Greenland high in 10 days time . Speeding things up....

GFSP04EU12_240_1.png GFSP07EU12_240_1.png GFSP10EU12_240_1.png GFSP11EU12_240_1.png GFSP12EU12_240_1.png GFSP20EU12_240_1.png 

Quite the ensemble set coming up for later on. Very interesting...

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
13 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Sst temperatures in the North Sea hovering above 10c still. 4c warmer than March this year7B51955D-AFEB-46B5-B5B7-3C7438DD2419.thumb.jpeg.dcff00a4e692fee60ce5e8dbefb8bf98.jpeg

Southern North Sea temperatures are a good 10C warmer now than early March this year!

Now

actualSST.thumb.gif.463147e12f26e98cecffa484000f5539.gif

Early March 2018

ns201809.thumb.gif.bd6aaabad3061c716f338ad19391d8d2.gif

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I believe  there's roughly a 6 week lag on sea temps but we're heading the right way 

Surface cold can quickly build though and warmer SSTs could mean heavier snow showers if the T850s get cold enough.... 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
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Posted

Terrific start to proceedings. Super strong vertical advection, just what we want to see. Set up the robust mid lat block first, the rest will follow. Well, maybe anyway.

Actually, the latitude of the high being so consistently forecast now is bordering on being classed as HLB in itself. More a HMLB. Anyway, it certainly looks like a Continental feed will be in place in about a weeks time.

Off out for a bite to eat, hopefully will see the ECM on the same page when I get back. 

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Almost every single GEFS member shows a cold pattern or would go on to show one to some degree, even the more zonal ones look like they would show polar Maritime that could lead to a Greenland high soon after.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Southern North Sea temperatures are a good 10C warmer now than early March this year!

Now

actualSST.thumb.gif.463147e12f26e98cecffa484000f5539.gif

Early March 2018

ns201809.thumb.gif.bd6aaabad3061c716f338ad19391d8d2.gif

A possible source of some impressive convection, given a favourable atmospheric temperature profile?

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted (edited)

Certainly a trend emerging from ncep modelling whereby the block settles around nw Europe (likely to be around or just west of the uk) and then as we head through week 2, the Canadian vortex sector heads to Asia and with heights rising to our west and northwest .......

Edited by bluearmy
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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
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Posted

12z GEFS

P4 tempresult_xng7.gif tempresult_nwb4.gif gens-4-0-384.png

P7 tempresult_jgd3.gif gens-7-0-384.png tempresult_qum9.gif

P10 tempresult_qkc3.gif

P12 (split PV ) tempresult_zsh8.gif tempresult_kru2.gif

P15 (split PV) tempresult_onu1.gif

P17 gensnh-17-1-384.png gens-17-0-384.png

P18 gens-18-1-324.png

 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
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Posted (edited)

Lovely to see that as we get well into chart range a very quick flip to cold pattern is showing FOR last 3rd of Nov.....charts aren’t always necessary for evidence or support.  Great 12z so far.......and indeed trend.  

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Amongst all the excitement of the blocked 12zs has anyone else noticed the updated meto seasonal maps ? 

Hi mate. No I haven’t seen them. Any link for that?

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Hi mate. No I haven’t seen them. Any link for that?

@Summer Sun posted it here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/?do=findComment&comment=3919871

Edited by matt111
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Amongst all the excitement of the blocked 12zs has anyone else noticed the updated meto seasonal maps ? 

I hadn't, thanks.  Given what we've been talking about on here these last two weeks, I'm not very surprised at this update!  

Couple of things as we await the ECM, first from a flick through the ensembles, the Greenland high could arise from two quite different mechanisms, either the retrogression of the now nailed-on Scandi block, or that block drifts East and a ridge is pushed up behind from the Atlantic.  Or it could not happen at all - I'd give longish odds on that now though!

Second, all this discussion about getting the right synoptics  for cold later, it's ironic that the first two weeks of November look remarkably warm, GFS has 16C max on Friday:

image.thumb.jpg.8a26ede5ab03ec2d59b845e0f7513b62.jpg

The flip when it comes will be as sharp as the shift to warm in April!

PS, ECM T144!

image.thumb.jpg.4e06f10cac6812df3aeff8b7a17fa32f.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
11 minutes ago, matt111 said:

@Summer Sun posted it here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/?do=findComment&comment=3919871

Thanks 

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