Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Derecho]

Runs are definitely a big upgrade this morning. ECM is probably the most mundane with nothing more then surface cold developing in ~ 10 days time and no building of the block... thanks to low heights dominating over the North Atlantic.

The GFS is very different however with both the parallel and the op showing promise in the mid range.

 

Though typical GFS FI fashion the block sinks to mid Latitudes leaving the UK under a cold surface high. The runs that build the high more quickly though see the block anchor itself to the NW for longer... and some very cold runs pop up in FI as a result:

  

The building blocks are starting to appear mid range so its definitely getting interesting now! I hope the ECM OP comes on board later

[jules216]

Central Europe going in to freezer soon? @daz_4 and @carinthian certainly won't mind, even @jvenge

[ICE COLD]

Nice set of GEFS ensembles again . Snow row rising too , these for London . I would of though there better the further north you go . Interesting week coming up for us cold snowy nutty chasers .

Edited November 11, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Methuselah]

And here's an example of 'only surface cold':

If I remember things correctly, it was sub-zero both day and night, under widespread freezing fog?

PS: One's memory ain't what it once was!

Edited November 11, 2018 by Ed Stone

[phil nw.]

Just flicking through some of the ens.data up to day 10 and they do indicate a colder drier phase by week 2 as the high builds.

The jetstream pattern for day 10 on the latest GFS run shows nicely the evenly split jet flow around us as the high acts like a bolder in a stream diverting the energy flow.

The ECM mean day 10 shows the centre around the southern Baltic feeding in colder continental air towards the UK.

Indeed if we view these ens temp.charts from NW xtra in 3 day chunks we can see the spread west of the cold.

and the London temp/rainfall ens graphs

Of course some detail may change from this range but we can see a pretty strong signal for a drier colder weather coming up under the influence of that high.Looking more Wintry  with night frosts,daytime low single figures.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's an example of 'only surface cold':

If I remember things correctly, it was sub-zero both day and night, under widespread freezing fog?

PS: One's memory ain't what it once was!

Pete

Do I get the feeling you are thinking things are looking similar to ‘that winter’

Phil nw

that is some rapid shrinking of warmth and rapid expansion of cold... 

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pete

Do I get the feeling you are thinking things are looking similar to ‘that winter’

BFTP

I'm not in any way certain of that, Fred. Though I wish I was!...It's the current tendency towards 'blockiness' that's got me interested, more than anything else...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm not in any way certain of that, Fred. Though I wish I was!...It's the current tendency towards 'blockiness' that's got me interested, more than anything else...

It certainly is a ‘sit up and look’ pattern....and that’s this year as a whole.  Keep the vibes going mate.

Its interesting along with 76/77...which wasn’t as cold but decent enough.....the winter cokd set up just didn’t want to go away no matter what the Atlantic tried. I have that in my mind re this winter.....I hope we see at least the continued coming back strong after a slight backtrack from the models over next 10 days....a ‘no backtrack’ from building cold pattern idyllic

 

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sorepaw1]

From T+216 onwards is this going to be described or classed as a Beast from the East .

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

From T+216 onwards is this going to be described or classed as a Beast from the East .

Not with those uppers ......

[Froze were the Days]

47 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's an example of 'only surface cold':

If I remember things correctly, it was sub-zero both day and night, under widespread freezing fog?

PS: One's memory ain't what it once was!

You certainly have this thing going on with Autumn / early Winter 1978  - sorry didn't see the posts above!

Edited November 11, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's an example of 'only surface cold':

If I remember things correctly, it was sub-zero both day and night, under widespread freezing fog?

PS: One's memory ain't what it once was!

And i’m just old enough to remember;that 10 days or so later the temp dropped like a stone and it started snowing heavier and heavier and the easterly wind picked up and sounded like it was growling ,and we had the most amazing fierce blizzard i can remember,same again this year please!

[Duane S.]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And i’m just old enough to remember;that 10 days or so later the temp dropped like a stone and it started snowing heavier and heavier and the easterly wind picked up and sounded like it was growling ,and we had the most amazing fierce blizzard i can remember,same again this year please!

One of my favourite charts of all time. The Perfect Storm. The word ‘blizzard’ is often overused, it wasn’t that night...

No comparisons necessarily with the current state of affairs, but it’s nice to look at anyway

 

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Central Europe going in to freezer soon? @daz_4 and @carinthian certainly won't mind, even @jvenge

I'm in the 'green zone' too. Not complaining about that chart... 

[fromey]

Not looking to shabby!

[SMU]

Great start to the 12s

UKMO excellent & the ICON superb !!!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Great start to the 12s

UKMO excellent & the ICON superb !!!

Yes, the Icon is an absolute snorter, it looks like the uppers are actually starting to cool at the same time as march westwards, which is unusual.

[Methuselah]

Last-chance Saloon for the swimwear?

 

[Wilxy]

Looking good!

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Last-chance Saloon for the swimwear?

 

Soon replaced by chilly weather.

 

Here comes the retrogression.

Edited November 11, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

Well, the first four models seem to have consensus at T144 now, this is starting to trickle into the reliable:

What happens next?  Very interesting...

[Nick F]

It’s not that often you see models in good agreement over placement of high pressure in the medium range, but looks like good news for those who don’t like mild and wet autumn weather such as we’ve endured in recent days. It will be a slow process through next week, but generally modeled for a ridge to build over the Med/southern Europe early in the week before extending/drifting north across the North Sea/western Scandinavia by next weekend, which would eventually draw in chillier continental air from the east and southeast  - but this is still a week away. No Beast From The East showing though, as any deep cold would head for southeast/east Europe.

Still, hints that the Atlantic westerlies with wind and rain aren't setting in for weeks on end as is often the case, rather blocking and retreating trop PV is setting the pattern as we head towards winter.

Edited November 11, 2018 by Nick F

[Man With Beard]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Last-chance Saloon for the swimwear?

 

Not unless you've got some thermals on - we've now reached the point where uppers on a continental flow matter much less - it will get colder day on day after this.

[Derecho]

Ah GFS, why must you stop at T384??? 

Also an interesting side note is that the arctic is forecast to be a lot colder then this time last year with colder then average temperatures around the arctic circle.

Could northerlies have a bit more ooomph if they materialise?

Disapprove of the US taking OUR cold, may have a twitter rant at Donald Trump...

Edited November 11, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Methuselah]

Yes please, God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!