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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely agree Feb.. i was very suprised to see this option being pretty much dismissed last night and again this morning.

IMHO there is wayyyyyyy to much emphasis/faith put in these extended eps..

Don’t miss the message ..... ‘meaningful greeny height rise’ in the next couple weeks ........ what may develop through week 3 could be interesting though ........

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely agree Feb.. i was very suprised to see this option being pretty much dismissed last night and again this morning.

IMHO there is wayyyyyyy to much emphasis/faith put in these extended eps..

Don't forget though on a number of the members it was only becoming evident on D15-16 on the GEFS so the eps might not have picked up the signal yet, they may come on board, the GEFS go out 24 hours more than the eps.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

When I was wittering on about the first attack of real cold coming in from the north or northwest, rather than the east, this is what I meant...Not that it'll happen either, of course...

Netweather GFS Image

Very true Pete you did and I remember that, although my thoughts are the cold pattern will start with E to NE winds to appear as a quick switch.  I don’t think that subsequent setup of retrogression should at all get dismissed and going forward I think we’ll see oscillations like this.  Models really ballooning the HP up this morning......a good start.

 

BFTP

 

 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Finally, some consistency when it comes to height rises on the GFS

GOOD.thumb.png.39034a768e11f686c831a0ab1fb429c7.png

At the very least we are looking at a foggy/frosty end to November if GFS is sniffing the way forward.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And this is the point, with a huge pool of cold getting into Europe, that I look for some retrogression. Or, failing that, for the possible GH to take over...

Netweather GFS Image

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

At the very least we are looking at a foggy/frosty end to November if GFS is sniffing the way forward.

Main chunk of PV displaced over Russia....that’s the way to go. Now to watch the wreath laying, catch you all later

 

BFTP

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Bugger!

Netweather GFS Image

Aye being 2 weeks away that is possible!  Going to be a very interesting week model watching ahead!

 

BFTP

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

GEFS 6z strengthen the retrogression signal, theres a decent sized cluster that suck the high NW wards to a greeny high, and the only other significant cluster look they will do it further west via throwing a W Greenland or canadian ridge later on.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Temps sub zero for much of the UK though..

Indeed NWS, my next best option, should a beast be either delayed or abandoned, is dense, persistent freezing fog, under an inversion...:oldgood:

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

EPS clusters different in that they look to maintain the scandi high a bit longer but they go a bit ropey right at the end, look an improvement on yesterdays 12z though.

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111100_300.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111100_360.png

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 6z strengthen the retrogression signal, theres a decent sized cluster that suck the high NW wards to a greeny high, and the only other significant cluster look they will do it further west via throwing a W Greenland or canadian ridge later on.

Indeed Feb. And this is pretty impressive for a 240h mean

24CF4FFC-6791-4FDD-91B2-F33313434FCB.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

And at 384h can I have a p5 please Bob

110968C2-5175-4FED-BB19-FB6B17DCFF40.png

And a number 6 and 20 are good as well.

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

Certainly looking good for some fine settled conditions ,and if all the cards fall right some nice frosty murky mornings ,not bad for starters .going up the wood shed in a moment to have words with the weather gods , cheers to you all ..

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

So, continental influence now all but assured moving forward, Exeter still beating the drum for a more unsettled phase latter end of November with an increased signal for snow, mainly across northern hills. Suggestive of a PM flow and Atlantic height rises IMHO.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

Finally, some consistency when it comes to height rises on the GFS

GOOD.thumb.png.39034a768e11f686c831a0ab1fb429c7.png

Scandi high signal is consistent but after day 10 there are still massive differences between runs and lots of scatter in ensemble suite. Starting to look more promising from a mean and ensemble POV though 

 

393A4748-0256-4811-A429-637726C42210.png

47CD4125-44C2-4532-8C72-96CA07365538.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So, continental influence now all but assured moving forward, Exeter still beating the drum for a more unsettled phase latter end of November with an increased signal for snow, mainly across northern hills. Suggestive of a PM flow and Atlantic height rises IMHO.

Then again, it might simply (I'm clutching at straws here!) reflect the models' uncertainty over the direction of attack? Barring slider lows, I can only envisage low-level snow, in the South, coming either straight from the Arctic or from the nearby continent...this early in the season? :unsure2:

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Then again, it might simply (I'm clutching at straws here!) reflect the models' uncertainty over the direction of attack? Barring slider lows, I can only envisage low-level snow, in the South, coming either straight from the Arctic or from the nearby continent...this early in the season? :unsure2:

No mention of snow away from northern hills so i'm guessing north westerly .. ;)

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No mention of snow away from northern hills so i'm guessing north westerly .. ;)

They do actually say 'particularly [not exclusively] over northern hills...' See? I told you I was clutching at straws!

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